Jets at Saints - Preview

1. Jets Passing O vs. Saints Pass D

The Jets are trying to keep the ball as low as possible when it comes to playcalling. Sanchez is only being asked to do enough to win the games and the rookie has been responding. He faced a tough Tennessee defense, had a few ups and downs in the game, but got the results the Jets needed. As a matter of fact, his stats were pretty praise worthy with the 3 TD performance.

New Orleans has a decent secondary, lead by Darren Sharper and Jabari Greer. They are both good CBs. Darren is 33 but already has 3 interceptions. This unit has picked up QB 7 times in the first 3 games. However, that does include 3 picks against rookie Stafford in his first game, and 3 against the backup QB Kolb. Edwards was shut down and was picked once. His outstanding WRs dropped a few passes as well which didn't help the cause.

Sanchez has so far shown that he may be the better QB of the 2009 draft class. His mobility buys him an extra second that can create a few plays down the field. His accuracy is immaculate, and has one of the best play action fakes in the NFL as evident by the TD pass to Hartsock last weekend. Expect the Jets to be aggressive and let the rookie make a few plays with his arm. They should be looking to take chances down the field to stay in the game. Sanchez should gain well over 200 yards, but may have a pick or two in the process as well.

EDGE: Jets


2. Jets Run O vs. Saints Run D

Rex has made it known that he wants to win games running the ball. Ground and pound. The Jets haven't gained yardage on a consistent basis on first and second down. They gained 86 yards on 28 attempts (3.1 avg) against the Titans before the three kneel downs. Considering the Titans were only giving 1.9 yards a rush before the game, the Jets did a decent job. Leon has been solid, even against the Titans gaining 46 yards on 12 carries. Jets gained 119 yards on 29 carries before a few kneel downs by Sanchez against the Patriots. They also gained 192 yards on 40 carries before the kneel downs against the Texans.

As for the Saints, they gave up 33 yards off 20 carries against a woeful Lions and their terrible OL. That is in noway to berate the Saints efforts. It is never easy to hold your opponent to that sort of yardage. Eagles gained 79 yards off 22 attempts but were forced to pass to keep pace with the Saints. The Bills gained 89 yards on 21 attempts and it seems like the Saints are starting to leak out a few rushing yards here and there. They may be going up against the best OL they have yet to face this year.

The Jets may gain a good YPC in the game, but would they have enough running plays? I expect the Jets to be aggressive with their approach to keep them in the game enough to try to control the tempo of the game. This should be a close game and the Jets will try to slow the game down on Brees.

EDGE: Jets


3. Saints Passing O vs. Jets Pass D

The Saints have play makers all over the field in the offensive front. Brees may be the best QB out there today, but that's debatable. Colston is a proven vet that can stretch the field. They have Henderson, Lance Moore, and Meachem as their other WRs. They also have Shockey as a TE, and Bush as a solid pass catcher. This offense can be compared to the 2007 Patriots offense. Brees has been outstanding passing the ball for 841 yards, 9 TDs, 2 ints, 69 %, with a rating of 118.1. However, the Bills did a great job keeping Brees quiet with only 172 yards passing, 0 TDs.

On the other hand, Jets have a solid secondary featuring 3 pro bowlers. The blitz packages Rex sent at the Titans in the 4th quarter forced the red hot Collins to throw 13 straight incompletions. They picked up him twice and handed him the his worse passer rating since September 17th, 2006. They also handed Schaub his second worst rating of 55.9 since October of 07 when he passed for 166 yards, 0tds, and 1 int. Brady was also shut down giving him 216 yards on 23/47 attempts, and 1 int, also handing him his 5th worst rating of all time of 53.1. Right now the Jets rank 5th in the league giving up 173 yards a game, and 2nd in passer rating allowing 50.2.

This will be a very interesting match up. If the Saints are trailing, the Jets should force them to throw the ball, and thats when the Jets D becomes lethal as evident by Kerry Collins 13 straight incompletions in passing situations. Jets have stopped two of the top 5 offenses out of the endzone. But when they lost Strickland and Lito Sheppard together, they gave up 2 TDs to the Titans. Expect Lito to be back. Strickland injury didn't seem to bad either but if both of these CBs are back, Brees will have a hard time.

EDGE: Even


4. Saints Run O vs. Jets Run D

Saints are assumed to be a passing team mainly due to the fact they have a good passing attack. That is where their running game opens up. They 2nd in the league with 512 rushing yards. Most of those yardage have been hard earned as they only have 3 rushes of 20 yards or more with longest being only 34 yards. Pierre Thomas as a power running back that can hit the hole hard and fast and move the pile. Bush can be electric if he sees open space and is hard to get a hold of one on one with his nifty moves and great speed.

Jets also have a good run D. They shut down Slaton completely when he gained only 17 yards on 9 attempts. New England wasn't allowed to cut loose either. Chris Johnson, however, was able to gain 97 yards on 22 carries. They rank 9th in the league, giving up 82.7 yards per game. Expect them to give up a few yards in this game while they try to defend the pass.

EDGE: Saints


5. Special Teams

Carney had a blocked FG against the Lions. He is 5/6 on FGs. Morstead is a rookie and has averaged 46.5 yards a punt. Bush is a good punt returner, but the Jets coverage unit has done excellent in the past. Last week, the Jets coverage unit recovered two fumbles. Feely has made 19 straight kicks. Washington and Leonhard have been very good returning punts and kickoffs for the Jets and doing a consistent job, giving the Jets good field positions.

EDGE: Jets


6. Intangibles

The Dome. Saints have the home field advantage and in the dome, even 69,000 fans seem like 80,000 fans. Brees likes to play in the dome and has performed better, as most other players would playing home.

EDGE: Saints


7. Predictions

Question of the week: Can the Jets stop Brees from lightening up the dome? If they can, they can sneak by the Saints. And if they can't they are in for a long game. For the Jets, so far so good. For the Saints, so far so good. Even match up if u ask me. It will come down to turnovers and who ever wins that battle, should win the game. Heavy blitzing may just cause a Brees fumble or two or stop him on a game winning drive, just like they did against Brady and Collins. Key to the game: Lito and Stricklands injuries.

Jets 27-24 Saints

 

Lowery may be at fault for that TD, but its not going to happen too often. He was tad bit slow reacting to the WR. Had he turned around a split second earlier, it would have been an easy pick. He was looking for an interception. Had he just played the WR, he could have easily broke the pass. Lowery is a ball hawk type of guy. He needs to be one too in this game. We need to pick up Brees a couple of times to stay ahead. He needs to taste some dirt the process as well.

 

I think I forgot to mention that part. If Strickland and Lito come back, we have a great chance to win it. If they are not back, we may just lose a close heart breaker.

 

The Bills gained 89 yards on 21 carries. I believe we have a better OL than Bills and are a better running team than them. We played well enough against the Titans, who were only giving 1.9 YPC. We were able to get 3.1 YPC. Not a lot, but considering who we were going up against, that figure seemed decent. Saints have given up 201 yards on 63 carries with a 3.2 YPC. But the longest gain has been 16, which means they pretty much gave up 3 yards consistently. Westbrook got 52 on 13 carries, and Jackson got 71 on 18 carries. The Saints defensive stats have been inflated (or deflated?) by their game against the Lions. Jets faced 3 solid teams whereas Saints has faced only one.

 

Look inside the numbers, Einstein! Didn't Detroit, the pathetic winless team, put up 27 points against your elite superbowl bound D?