Home > Commentary > Columns Half good, half bad First-round picks are usually a toss-up ? so let's make calls on this year's class By Eric Edholm (eedholm@pfwmedia.com) July 8, 2008 If the NFL draft is a crapshoot, then picking in the first round might as well be a coin flip. As in, half the picks end up doing well, half don?t. Historically, that is how it has been. And though none of the players has taken anything close to a meaningful snap in the NFL, I have an idea who I think ultimately will be worth a first-round selection, and who won?t.Don?t believe me on the 50-50 notion? If it does indeed take three years to evaluate a draft, let?s take a look back at the 2005 edition. In the ?boom? category, I have: Braylon Edwards, DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Jammal Brown, Derrick Johnson, Jason Campbell, Roddy White, Luis Castillo, Marlin Jackson, Heath Miller, Mike Patterson and Logan Mankins. It?s probably too early to make a call on guys like Ronnie Brown or Pacman ? er, Adam ? Jones or Aaron Rodgers, so for sake of argument, let?s call them potential booms.That?s 16. The other 16 guys drafted that year, for whatever reason, haven?t panned out as expected. Some, such as David Pollack, we never could have anticipated his career-ending injury. Others, like Cedric Benson, have been flops on and off the field. Inexact science? You bet. Just look at who I called would-be busts from last year ? among them, Joe Thomas, Amobi Okoye, Marshawn Lynch, Leon Hall, Aaron Ross and Dwayne Bowe. Some of my booms weren?t too much better, though there?s lots of time for things to change.But I am at it again, casting sweeping judgments on players who have yet to take an NFL snap. Hey, it?s fun, and you guys seem to like to razz me when I am wrong. I probably got more responses last year for my ?50-50? column than I did for any two others combined that I have written at PFW. Some liked it, but many did not. I can take it. On with the list ? and with one fewer first-rounder this year, I chose 16 booms and 15 busts, revealing my soft side: ~ ~ ~ 6. OLB Vernon Gholston ? Jets Prediction: Bust Yeah, I finally found my first real bust. There are few better athletes than Gholston ? in this class, or in the NFL for that matter ? who possess his size and raw ability. But I have serious reservations about the hot-and-cold nature of his play in college (especially the cold against lesser competition) and whether he can be a cerebral, instinctive linebacker. He came off as being very intelligent in talking to him before the draft, but I don?t think he?ll ever put it together as a complete player with the sixth pick. > http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Commentary/Columns/2008/edholm070808.htm
What a shame. I thought he was a good one. We better trade him now to the highest bidder so we can regroup and get the guy we need.
At least the guy admits he's just another asshole with an opinion who gets half his shit wrong. There's something redeeming about that.
Question: How can you call a player a bust when they have not yet signed their FIRST contract nor have they gotten onto the field for either a real practice or a game? This guy is just another of the group of blowhards that are enamoured with the sound of their own voices who, if they actually knew anything about football, would work for a real team instead of a newspaper. Talk to me in 3 to 5 years about Ghloston. Only then will we be able to evaluate if he is/was a boon or bust.
just another dickhead who has nothing better to write about, so he spouts out some rancid bullshit just to say hes doing his job. Not well.....
30. TE Dustin Keller — Jets Prediction: Boom Keller might be the Jets’ answer to the Colts’ Dallas Clark. Though Keller isn’t a refined blocker yet, he is a truck once he has the ball in his hands and has a chance to be a fan favorite right away. I think he’ll be a 40- to 60-catch guy who gets in the endzone regularly.
i don't care if gholston cannot read a single offensive formation and takes 50% of the dang plays off....... if he puts up double digit sacks for the jets he is worth the 6th pick. The sack is still an underestimated stat IMO - it can change the game literally from one play to the next. jil
If you read his disclaimer, he all but says, "Read this to find out how big of an @sshole I am:" "Inexact science? You bet. Just look at who I called would-be busts from last year — among them, Joe Thomas, Amobi Okoye, Marshawn Lynch, Leon Hall, Aaron Ross and Dwayne Bowe. Some of my booms weren’t too much better, though there’s lots of time for things to change.But I am at it again, casting sweeping judgments on players who have yet to take an NFL snap. Hey, it’s fun, and you guys seem to like to razz me when I am wrong. I probably got more responses last year for my “50-50” column than I did for any two others combined that I have written at PFW. Some liked it, but many did not. I can take it."
What's really funny is that if Gholston doesn't come out in the first game and get 6 sacks, champ will claim he's a bust and quote this guy as "evidence" :rofl: You know it's coming :wink:
Printing this out to take with me on my next bathroom trip in case we're out of toilet paper. The fact that he considered Joe Thomas a bust at the time he was drafted and that he currently thinks Roddy White is a boom from the 2005 draft shows he's a f--king moron then & now.
I think if people are expecting him to be the next Lawrence Taylor, then he will be a bust. But if we expect him to be a good end rusher, who can have 10-12 sacks and contribute in the 3-4, I think we should be excited.
Did anyone read the article? This is his projection/best guess of what the players will do. He's not labeling anyone a boom or a bust as of now. edit: That's not to say I agree with him or his reasoning for projecting Gholston to be a bust.
Quite right. This is the offseason and this guy is basically playing a bar game. Imagine you and a bunch of friends went to a bar and after a couple of beers someone said, "hey, who's going to be a bust out of this year's first round?" You'd have some fun talking about all the players and maybe even some heated debate on one or two. That's what this is meant to be - a bit of fun. And as for Gholston, it's a flip of the coin like every one of the players taken in the first round, just like it always is. Considering almost every draft 'expert' has almost every one of these players labelled as a future star, to come out and say half of them will be busts or at least disappointing is gutsy as well. And we all know he's right, it's just a question of which ones...
We'll know after two years. No player has longer than that to prove out unless he's sitting behind a star player. On this team Gholston is either a solid starter by the end of season two or he's a prime bust. I make it 50/50.
Man look no Talk about Reggie Bush being a bust . Or hell L.White Boom. I have always been anti Bush !!!! But White is going to be a nice back in a minute.... I know being jets related but draft wise related.
