For all the "weak schedule" talk...

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by jetmatt12, Dec 30, 2006.

  1. jetmatt12

    jetmatt12 New Member

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    I'm not sure it has been mentioned enough, that with the current scheduling system, while certainly some teams have weaker schedules than others, there can only be a difference of 2 games between the schedules of any division teams. Each team plays:
    1) 6 games against division opponents- all the same, except obviously the Jets play the pats, for example, while the pats play the jets
    2) 4 games against an NFC division- this year, the north
    3) 4 games against an AFC division- this year, the south
    4) 2 games against in-conference teams, that have the same record as you last year- this year, the Browns and Raiders

    So, for all those who say the Jets had a weak schedule and this season doesnt prove much, they better also believe that the Dolphins, Bills, and Pats are worse than their records (which for the bills and phins is pretty bad). Too much emphasis is put on scheduling sometimes, especially considering that in one of our two games that was specific to us, the Browns game, we were robbed.

    Sorry if this is restating the obvious, but I feel like people here make the schedule argument all the time and dont really think about the fact that schedules over a division are almost identical- thus evening out the playing field for any division race.
     
  2. The Dark Knight

    The Dark Knight Well-Known Member

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    Is this rebuilding team really 9-6 about to go 10-6? :eek:hmy:

    Playoffs? You kidding me? :)
     
  3. e-x

    e-x New Member

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    the strength of schedule thing is a pretty hard argument in the nfl

    teams that suck one year, are often playoff teams the next, we're an example of that

    and your "weak" schedule is based on their record from last year, which most of the time, means nothing

    i'll admit we've got an easy schedule late in the year, but weather that's based on what was setup for us or not, is not really an issue and with a lot of the teams, the reason they arn't playoff teams, is because they are inconsistant, there is always a chance of them playing well against us

    basically, as many teams that were great last year, suck this year, as sucked last year and are great this year
     
    #3 e-x, Dec 30, 2006
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2006
  4. billo83

    billo83 Member

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    One thing about the Jets when looking at their strenght of schedule recently is that the average is skewed because of one team the 2-13 Raiders. That's why this stuff is often bogus.
     
  5. ollie

    ollie Right Wing NutJob

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    the thing is at the start of the year the "experts" were saying we would suck because how tough our schedule was... Miami was supposed to cream us both games as was the Bills... The Vikes were gonna be a blow out... even the Lions with all the "awesome" changes they made were gonna kick our ass... and beat the Pats? We should've just forfeited the games.. why play?

    I can't remember being this happy as a Jet fan... maybe 98
     
  6. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    Yep. Odds were probably 50-1 against Chad playing 16 games and we hit the number. We were a pretty solid 6 to 7 win team based on the schedule regardless of what the "experts" thought coming out of camp, maybe 8 at the outside. Then Chad decided to forgo his customary early to mid-season injury and we got two or three extra wins.

    Note that there were only 4 really tough opponents (New England x 2, Indianapolis and Chicago) on the Jet's schedule this year. The other 12 games were against teams that Chad had a really good chance to win against and he went 8-3 against them, with likely a 9th win coming against Oakland on Sunday.
     
    #6 Br4d, Dec 30, 2006
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2006
  7. Cakes

    Cakes Mr. Knowledge 2010

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    I try to not get wrapped up in this stuff because at the end of the day, it's not going to mean anything.

    The Jets won't lose or win a Wild Card playoff game based on what their regular season strength of schedule was.

    The 1971 Cowboys had a very low strength of schedule. They went on to win a Super Bowl and are now considered one of the greatest teams of all-time. (Their story aired on NFLN last night after the Insight Bowl as part of the America's Game series. I was unable to watch it. Maybe it will re-air.)

    The 1972 Dolphins did not run through a tough schedule in the regular season.

    Those are just two examples.

    Look at the 1998 Jets. They went 7-1 in the regular season against teams that qualified for the playoffs. They were only 5-3 against non-playoff teams.
     
  8. statjeff22

    statjeff22 2008 Green Guy "Most Knowledgeable" Award Winner

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    Strength of schedule does make a big difference in the NFL. The fact that what looks like a weak schedule at the beginning of the year doesn't necessarily look like one at the end of the year isn't the point; the Jets have had a relatively easy schedule this year based on the quality of the teams this year, just like they had a relatively difficult one last year based on the quality of the teams last year. And I'm not saying that because of the 2-13 Raiders, either. Last year the Jets played only 5 games against teams that finished under .500, while this year they're playing 10 (based on records after 15 games), and that's a tremendous difference. Year-to-year changes in the records of teams can have a lot to do with changes in the strength of schedules from year to year.

    It is certainly true that most of the schedule within a division is common, but just as an example, the two teams not in common between the Patriots and the Jets were Denver and Cincinnati (17-13) for New England versus Cleveland and Oakland (6-24) for the Jets. That's a pretty big difference in opponents, although it hasn't made much of a difference, since the Jets lost to Cleveland (of course, that doesn't strengthen the argument that the Jets are better than their record, does it?). Anyway, most people say that New England isn't as good as they've been in the past, and a not-too-difficult schedule is part of that.
     
  9. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    For all of his coaching acumen and success Bill Parcells probably has had more letdown losses than any coach in NFL history. The Jets lost at least two games they should have won every year that he coached them.

    He beat the good teams like a drum most years but he'd lose to a 3-13 team like the 1997 Colts or a 4-12 team like the 1998 Rams. The one year he was immune to letdowns was 1999, when he lost Vinny for the year. No room for letdowns there and he won all the games he was supposed to and a few more than you'd have expected.

    I have the feeling Bill Parcells would be a great guy to have standing next to you on a sinking ship with the sharks circling and the most annoying guy in the world to have there with smooth sailing ahead.
     
  10. Jets3399

    Jets3399 Member

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    I think the most important thing to remember for people that say the Jets have had an easy schedule is that we have been CONSISTENTLY underdogs against almost everyone we've played...Even these so called easy teams such as Minnesota and Miami down the stretch. If they are such "easy games", shouldn't we atleast be favored to win them?
     
  11. statjeff22

    statjeff22 2008 Green Guy "Most Knowledgeable" Award Winner

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    No, since all that says is that the betting public doesn't think the Jets are any good, not that they actually are or aren't.
     
  12. TommyGreen

    TommyGreen Trolls

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    Weak Shmeak. The Jets are playoff bound in a very competitive conference. Coming in second in a tough division is no small feat either.
     
  13. statjeff22

    statjeff22 2008 Green Guy "Most Knowledgeable" Award Winner

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    And they went 3-1 in games against the weaker conference. (And the rest of the division went 9-3 against them, which means that the AFC East is under .500 against the rest of the AFC, and has the worst record within the conference of any division in the AFC.)

    All any team can do is play the games on their schedule, so there is nothing wrong or embarrassing in what the Jets are doing, but ignoring that they have benefited from an easy schedule is IMO silly.
     
  14. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady, 21018 Funniest Member Award Winner

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    I think most NFL coaches would laugh at the term weak schedule, but I understand the term well enough as a fan to understand that we did not face the type of grueling schedule that we appeared to have been facing in years past. But looking at the games that we played against so-called 'elite competition' (Indy, NE, Chi) this year and how the team did against them compared to the 'weak' teams, I have to wonder about how bold the distinction is between a weak schedule and a tough schedule.
     
  15. statjeff22

    statjeff22 2008 Green Guy "Most Knowledgeable" Award Winner

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    This could just be semantics, but your example hardly proves your point - the Jets were 1-3 against your so-called elite competition, and 8-3 against everyone else. (And before people jump in and say how they "almost won" all four of those games, they also "almost lost" the games against Tennessee, Miami (both of them), and maybe Detroit). Indy won by scoring points and Chicago won by preventing them, which is exactly what they do.

    I really don't understand the resistance to the notion that the Jets have benefited from being able to play some of the weaker teams and avoid some of the tougher ones this year, especially since benefiting from it has been Pennington's history since 2003. As I said in another thread, the Jets record this year is exactly in line with what would have been predicted based on Pennington's record against .500 and above and below .500 teams from 2003-2005.
     
  16. Jetzz

    Jetzz Active Member

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    The three losses were winnable, and we were in those games to the end despite losing. If it were a strength of schedule deal and we were a weak sister, we should have gotten blown out in those games. But we didn't. And yes, I just jumped all over the almost... lol We almost lost a lot of games we shouldn't have either. I think the distinction to be made is that the league isn't as far apart as we think with exception of maybe 2-3 teams at the top and 2-3 at the bottom.
     
  17. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady, 21018 Funniest Member Award Winner

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    staffjet, you never cease to give me a headache with your numbers. :grin:

    The Jets have certainly benefited from playing other teams that were in serious states of flux at the time we played them. The Titans threw Kerry Collins into the green flames and then celebrated the flesh sacrifice by setting Collins up as Vince Young's game 1 goat. It proved to be a successful maneuver, but at the cost of a Jets week 1 victory. We also played against 3 or 4 teams with rookie HCs, new systems all around, so I do get your point about a weak schedule.

    But I think making such a generalization in common practice undermines the true complexity of what this CS does each week, tailoring the schemes and sets to the opponent, installing offense and defense and STs every single week. And I think that's a problem a lot of other people have with that weak schedule term as well.
     
  18. statjeff22

    statjeff22 2008 Green Guy "Most Knowledgeable" Award Winner

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    Then why is the Jets' record over the last four years when Pennington is starting 14-4 against teams that finish below .500 (based on current records for this year), a winning percentage of 78%, and 8-15 against teams .500 or over, a winning percentage of 35%?
     
  19. statjeff22

    statjeff22 2008 Green Guy "Most Knowledgeable" Award Winner

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    Aaaarrrggghhhh! :wink:

    More seriously, nothing I am saying in any way argues against what the coaching staff has done. Personally, I think that this team has less talent than the one in 2004 did, so a comparable record definitely says something good about the coaching staff. (Edit: by less talent I include rookies, whose development can definitely be credited at least in part to the coaching staff.) It's just that we should remember that the coaching staffs of the other teams are also tailoring schemes and sets to the opponent, so I'm not sure what that has to do with the question.

    The Jets have only played three games all year that could be viewed as "complete" - Houston, Green Bay, and Minnesota. They also lost two games badly (Jacksonville and Buffalo). In any of the other 10 games, they could have gone either way, and I believe that the fact that they went 6-4 is due in large part to the fact that they went 4-1 in the 5 close games against teams with below .500 records. I fervently hope that something similar will happen tomorrow as well (or even better, one of those "complete" wins).
     
  20. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    There's no question that the AFC East is still the weakest division in the AFC at this point. For all that they sure did play better than I expected this year and I think they'll be one of the better divisions in the AFC (and NFL as a whole) moving forward.
     

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