For those who think that drafting a QB in the first round is the key to building a franchise or winning a SB, think again. I have looked at all first round QB's drafted in the last 20 years - since 1986, and it looks more like a junk yard than the HOF. What does this prove? That scouting QB's is imperfect. That drafting QB's is a huge gamble. That players who appear to be a sure thing in April end up being garbage a few years later. So those who think that the Jets must draft Leinart, Young , or Cutler, to build a winner, see what you think after seeing this list. I say stay away - very far away from all three. 1986 Jim Everett (2) - Good QB Chuck Long (12) - Bust 1987 Vinny Testaverde(1) - Good QB but not worthy of first pick Kelly Stouffer (6) - Bust Chris Miller (13) - Fair QB, but bust for 13th pick Jim Harbaugh(26) - OK 1988- none 1989 Troy Aikman(1) - Future HOF and 3 SBs 1990 Jeff George (1) - Bust Andre Ware(7) - Bust 1991 Dan McGwire (16) - Bust Todd Marinovich (24) - Bust 1992 David Klingler(6) - Bust Tommy Maddox(25) - Bust 1993 Drew Bledsoe(1) - Good Rick Mirer(2)- Bust 1994 Heath Shuler(3) - Bust Trent Dilfer(6) - OK - SB (not earned by him) 1995 Steve McNair(3) - Very Good Kerry Collins (5) - OK 1996 - none 1997 Jim Drunkenmiller (26) - Bust 1998 Peyton Manning (1) - Future HOF Ryan Leaf(2) -Bust 1999 Tim Couch(1) - bust Donovan McNabb(2) - Future HOF Akili Smith (3)- Bust Dante Culpepper(11) - Very Good but now a Q Cade McNown(12) - Bust 2000 Chad Pennington(18) - Good, but INJ Q 2001 Michael Vick(1) - Controversial - not worth #1 in my book - not a real QB 2002 David Carr(1) - Disappointment Joey Harrington (3) - Bust Patrick Ramsey(32) - Disappointment 2003 Carson Palmer(1)- looks like a star - INJ Q Byron Leftwich(7) - OK - too early to tell, but INJ prone Kyle Boller(19)- Bust written all over him Rex Grossman(22) - Incomplete, but why did Griese go there? 2004 Eli Manning(1) - too early to tell Philip Rivers (4) - hasn't played yet Ben Roethlisberger(11)- Won SB JP Losman(22) - Bust 2005 - can't evaluate these guys yet So of 40 QBs drafted in the last 20 years, the numbers tally as follows: 20 Busts 6 Fair to OK, but not worth First Round picks (including Pennington here) 7 Good to Very Good- Everett, Testaverde, Bledsoe, McNair, Culpepper McNabb and Vick (who I am rating higher than he deserves) 2 Great - Aikman and Manning 2 Future Stars - Palmer and Roethlesberger 3 Incompletes - Manning, Grossman and Rivers Half of the first round QB's have been complete busts, and 11 of them were taken between pick 1 and 7!!!! Of the other 20, 6 were just ok and 3 we just don't know. Only 2 could be considered great. And if the measure is SB titles, only 3 of the 40 won SBs - Aikman, Dilfer (defense won it, not his play) and Roethlesberger. Only 4 others took their team to a SB - Bledsoe, Collins, McNair and McNabb. Anybody who is clamoring for the Jets to trade up for a QB is slightly insane. Anybody who thinks that the Jets must draft one of the "big" three in order to build a team doesn't know their draft history. Anybody who thinks the Jets will be wasting a pick by taking somebody else should read this list again. Is it worth millions of dollars to gamble on a bet that has about a 25% chance of reasonable success and over 50% chance of abject failure??? Not on your life. The Jets should stay put and take Ferguson, Williams, or Hawk!!!
I would not say just QBs but almost any player. You can only predict so much and eventually you just have to throw a guy into the fire and see what happens, look at Wayne Chrebet.....he beat the odds, and I bet there were WRs drafted in the first few rounds of that draft that never amounted to much. I also think alot of it has o do with the teams situation that they go to. Lets say the Jets take Cutler and then Chad shows up fully recovered and we have a 8-8 season, then for the next few years he performs well, or Ramsey for that matter....eventually ppl, includding coaches, start to focus on the great starter and not the guy we drafted three or four years before....and a guy is so far out of game form that when he gets his shot he is mediocre...and it lasts for the rest of his career...
Great review of past QB's. Now some of the "move up for Leinart" pushers will think it may not be a sure-shot, but I doubt you'll sway many. You need the strength in the middle first, to keep the QB alive and get yards for the RB's, for whoever we end up with at those spots. I'm still hopfull for D'Brick with the massive wingspread. But I wouldn't be unhappy with the Hawk or Williams.
Great post, could not agree more. A quarterback has to be absolutely outstanding to be taken in the top 5: while the QB's available in this draft are very good, are they certain to succeed at the next level? Definitely not. We are much, much better taking a player whose athletic ability and ability to play position are a standout, which is why if either Williams or Ferguson are available at 4 we should take them over any quarterbacks available. Quarterback is the most important position on the park, but that is the exact reason why we should not gamble away our top picks on a player in that position that history shows will more than likely be a huge bust. We already have a Leinart like player in Pennington...both have dodgy shoulders, both are talented: we don't need another player like that on our roster. Leinart is the player in the draft at QB who is most ready to step up and play right away....but it is not a great fit for the Jets to take him and sacrifice draft picks that we've spent a season of pain gathering. We have other much more pressing needs to fill, and we have adequate QB's with us now, and will pick up another QB outside the first round. You are just as likely to succeed with a QB outside the first round as you are with someone in it. For the other 'name' QB's in the draft: Cutler is not a top 5 pick. Young is the only one I would consider taking as project player over Leinart and Cutler....but the Jets cannot afford that luxury, and Young is not a top 5 pick, and will probably fall just inside the top 10. There are posters on here whose opinions I respect who have a different view from me, but at least White Shoes post will continue debate on this issue.
how about you do the same analysis of 1st rounders at every position. I am sure you will find very similar results, which means all you have is that it is risky drafting a player no matter what position, not just QB. very specious argument you have made.
Your argument is thankfully less fanatical than many people who say first round QBs suck and you've done some good research. However, you fail to look at QBs picked in other rounds. Yes the scouting is imperfect at QB, perhaps more than any other position. But the chance of a first-round QB being good is much higher than a QB from other rounds (I HATE when people point out Tom Brady like that means you might as well just pick your QB in the 6th round...not that YOU did that, I'm just saying). I guess what I'm saying is...how else do you propose we get a franchise QB? Yes it's a gamble, but what choice is there? Those guys don't go on the market all that often in free agency. Of the marquee QBs in the league, almost all are on the team that drafted them (Brady, Manning, Palmer, McNabb, Culpepper if not for injury). Now that's not to say we should take any of this year's big 3. Just that if we've scouted them and feel one is worth taking at #4, then we shouldn't be scared off by past first-round QBs being busts.
I think it would vary by position, but this is exactly the point...these numbers LOOK bad but without a similar analysis of other positions and other rounds (and also of the % of current league starters at a position that came from each round) the analysis is not worth much since there is no point of comparison.
Nice Post! Well studied and thought out post. I appreciate posts like this. I only disagree on Eli...You said it was too early to tell. I think that last year he proved that he is pretty good. It is still early, but from what I've seen - he is pretty darn good for a second year. Good post!
Yes, it is worth it, in my opinion. There's no denying that QB is one of, if not the, most important player on a team. If you're a GM and your scouts tell you that so-and-so is the real deal you have to trust them and take a chance on it, regardless of the odds. If you can show me that some other round has a significantly greater chance of producing good QBs, then maybe I'll concede that taking QBs in the first round may not be such a grand idea.
I don't think it is too early to tell with Big Ben at this point dude, I think he preeeeeety much proved himself to everyone lol.
you have to gamble to get the great ones imo...the safe picks dont get you many Hall of famer quaility players. that said every pick in the draft is a risk. theres bust at every position
RB 1990 1 2 Blair Thomas RB Penn State 1 17 Emmitt Smith RB Florida 1 19 Darrell Thompson RB Minnesota 1 20 Steve Broussard RB Washington State 1 24 Rodney Hampton RB Georgia 1 25 Dexter Carter RB Florida State 1991 1 14 Leonard Russell RB Arizona State 1 21 Harvey Williams RB Louisiana State 1 27 Jarrod Bunch RB Michigan 1992 1 19 Tony Smith RB Southern Mississippi 1 21 Vaughn Dunbar RB Indiana 1993 1 3 Garrison Hearst RB Georgia 1 10 Jerome Bettis RB Notre Dame 1994 1 2 Marshall Faulk RB San Diego State 1 25 Greg Hill RB Texas A&M 1995 1 1 Ki-Jana Carter RB Penn State 1 17 Tyrone Wheatley RB Michigan 1 18 Napoleon Kaufman RB Washington 1 19 James Stewart RB Tennessee 1 21 Rashaan Salaam RB Colorado 1996 1 6 Lawrence Phillips RB Nebraska 1 8 Tim Biakabutuka RB Michigan 1 14 Eddie George RB Ohio State 1997 1 12 Warrick Dunn RB Florida State 1 23 Antowain Smith RB Houston 1998 1 5 Curtis Enis RB Penn State 1 9 Fred Taylor RB Florida 1 18 Robert Edwards RB Georgia 1 29 John Avery RB Mississippi 1999 1 4 Edgerrin James RB Miami 1 5 Ricky Williams RB Texas 2000 1 5 Jamal Lewis RB Tennessee 1 7 Thomas Jones RB Virginia 1 11 Ron Dayne RB Wisconsin 1 19 Shaun Alexander RB Alabama 1 31 Trung Canidate RB Arizona 2001 1 5 LaDainian Tomlinson RB Texas Christian 1 23 Deuce McAllister RB Mississippi 1 27 Michael Bennett RB Wisconsin 2002 1 16 William Green RB Boston College 1 18 T.J. Duckett RB Michigan State 2003 1 23 Willis McGahee RB Miami 1 27 Larry Johnson RB Penn State 2004 1 24 Steven Jackson RB Oregon State 1 26 Chris Perry RB Michigan 1 30 Kevin Jones RB Virginia Tech 2005 1 2 Ronnie Brown RB Auburn 1 4 Cedric Benson RB Texas 1 5 Carnell Williams RB Auburn
Tackles 1990 1 9 Richmond Webb T Texas A&M 1991 1 7 Charles McRae T Tennessee 1 8 Antone Davis T Tennessee 1 11 Pat Harlow T Southern California 1 22 Stan Thomas T Texas 1992 1 8 Bob Whitfield T Stanford 1 10 Ray Roberts T Virginia 1 11 Leon Searcy T Miami 1 27 John Fina T Arizona 1993 1 8 Willie Roaf T Louisiana Tech 1 9 Lincoln Kennedy T Washington 1 13 Brad Hopkins T Illinois 1 18 Ernest Dye T South Carolina 1994 1 14 Bernard Williams T Georgia 1 15 Wayne Gandy T Auburn 1 16 Aaron Taylor T Notre Dame 1 19 Todd Steussie T California 1995 1 2 Tony Boselli T Southern California 1 24 Korey Stringer T Ohio State 1 25 Billy Milner T Houston 1 29 Blake Brockermeyer T Texas 1 31 Trezelle Jenkins T Michigan 1996 1 4 Jonathan Ogden T UCLA 1 10 Willie Anderson T Auburn 1 27 John Michels T Southern California 1 29 Jamain Stephens T North Carolina A&T 1 30 Andre Johnson T Penn State 1997 1 1 Orlando Pace T Ohio State 1 6 Walter Jones T Florida State 1 19 Tarik Glenn T California 1 30 Ross Verba T Iowa 1998 1 7 Kyle Turley T San Diego State 1 11 Tra Thomas T Florida State 1 27 Victor Riley T Auburn 1999 1 14 John Tait T Brigham Young 1 19 Luke Petitgout T Notre Dame 1 21 L.J. Shelton T Eastern Michigan 1 27 Aaron Gibson T Wisconsin 2000 1 3 Chris Samuels T Alabama 1 20 Stockar McDougle T Oklahoma 1 22 Chris McIntosh T Wisconsin 2001 1 2 Leonard Davis T Texas 1 14 Kenyatta Walker T Florida 1 18 Jeff Backus T Michigan 2002 1 4 Mike Williams T Texas 1 7 Bryant McKinnie T Miami 1 10 Levi Jones T Arizona State 1 29 Marc Colombo T Boston College 2003 1 8 Jordan Gross T Utah 1 20 George Foster T Georgia 1 26 Kwame Harris T Stanford 2004 1 2 Robert Gallery T Iowa 1 19 Vernon Carey T Miami 2005 1 13 Jammal Brown T Oklahoma 1 19 Alex Barron T Florida State
DE 1990 1 4 Keith McCants DE Alabama 1 11 Anthony Smith DE Arizona 1991 0 1992 1 12 Marco Coleman DE Georgia Tech 1 22 Alonzo Spellman DE Ohio State 1 23 Chris Mims DE Tennessee 1 26 Robert Porcher DE South Carolina State 1993 1 5 John Copeland DE Alabama 1 6 Eric Curry DE Alabama 1994 1 7 Bryant Young DE Notre Dame 1 13 Joe Johnson DE Louisville 1 23 Shante Carver DE Arizona St 1995 1 6 Kevin Carter DE Florida 1 7 Mike Mamula DE Boston College 1 11 Derrick Alexander DE Florida State 1 16 Hugh Douglas DE Central State, Ohio 1996 1 3 Simeon Rice DE Illinois 1 5 Cedric Jones DE Oklahoma 1 12 Regan Upshaw DE California 1 16 Duane Clemons DE California 1 22 Marcus Jones DE North Carolina 1997 1 14 Reinard Wilson DE Florida State 1 17 Kenard Lang DE Miami 1 18 Kenny Holmes DE Miami 1 21 Renaldo Wynn DE Notre Dame 1 25 Jon Harris DE Virginia 1 28 Trevor Pryce DE Clemson 1998 1 3 Andre Wadsworth DE Florida State 1 6 Grant Wistrom DE Nebraska 1 8 Greg Ellis DE North Carolina 1 14 Jason Peter DE Nebraska 1999 1 16 Jevon Kearse DE Florida 1 20 Ebenezer Ekuban DE North Carolina 1 22 Lamar King DE Saginaw Valley State 1 30 Patrick Kerney DE Virginia 2000 1 1 Courtney Brown DE Penn State 1 12 Shaun Ellis DE Tennessee 1 13 John Abraham DE South Carolina 1 26 Erik Flowers DE Arizona State 2001 1 4 Justin Smith DE Missouri 1 6 Richard Seymour DE Georgia 1 10 Jamal Reynolds DE Florida State 2002 1 2 Julius Peppers DE North Carolina 1 11 Dwight Freeney DE Syracuse 1 22 Bryan Thomas DE Ala.-Birmingham 1 25 Charles Grant DE Georgia 2003 1 10 Terrell Suggs DE Arizona State 1 13 Ty Warren DE Texas A&M 1 14 Michael Haynes DE Penn State 1 15 Jerome McDougle DE Miami 1 18 Calvin Pace DE Wake Forest 2004 18 Will Smith DE Ohio State 1 20 Kenechi Udeze DE Southern California 2005 1 16 Travis Johnson DE Florida State 1 18 Erasmus James DE Wisconsin 1 20 Marcus Spears DE Louisiana State 1 28 Luis Castillo DE Northwestern
More often than not, teams at the top of a draft pick a QB but since they suck (hence, earning the early draft pick) they don't have the tools around that rookie QB to afford them the chance to excel. Rothlesberger in Pittsburgh is a rare situation where a good rookie QB was drafted by a team that wasn't as bad as their record, which has led to his success. Its only when rookie QB moves on to their second or third team, usually a winning franchise, that they begin to excel... that is why I fully expect Joey Harrington to re-emerge as a quality starting QB eventually, and expect the same thing from Ramsey. Look what happened with Vinny. He was terrible, because he was drafted by a bad franchise and expected to be a savior... it wasn't until he was deemed a bust and moved on to other teams where they had a good team/coach in place that he began living up to his potential. With all of the offensive needs we have, the last thing we should do is draft a rookie QB... we don't have the supporting cast to afford a rookie QB the time to develop and whoever it is will end up a bust, likely not developing until we give up on them and they move on to their second team in 4-5 years. If we had less question marks on offense, then I would say take the QB... but we have too many other problems to address.
Outside LBs 1990 1 5 Junior Seau OLB Southern California 1 14 Renaldo Turnbull OLB West Virginia 1 15 Lamar Lathon OLB Houston 1 18 Tony Bennett OLB Mississippi 1991 1 4 Mike Croel OLB Nebraska 1 15 Huey Richardson OLB Florida 1 18 Alfred Williams OLB Colorado 1993 1 15 Wayne Simmons OLB Clemson 1 27 Todd Kelly OLB Tennessee 1994 1 4 Willie McGinest OLB Southern California 1 10 Jamir Miller OLB UCLA 1 11 John Thierry OLB Alcorn State 1 22 Rob Fredrickson OLB Michigan State 1995 1 13 Mark Fields OLB Washington State 1 28 Derrick Brooks OLB Florida State 1996 1 2 Kevin Hardy OLB Illinois 1 15 John Mobley OLB Kutztown, Pa. 1997 1 4 Peter Boulware OLB Florida State 1 20 Dwayne Rudd OLB Alabama 1998 1 12 Keith Brooking OLB Georgia Tech 1 13 Takeo Spikes OLB Auburn 1 15 Anthony Simmons OLB Clemson 1 17 Brian Simmons OLB North Carolina 2000 1 2 LaVar Arrington OLB Penn State 1 16 Julian Peterson OLB Michigan State 1 30 Keith Bulluck OLB Syracuse 2001 1 7 Andre Carter OLB California 2002 1 23 Napoleon Harris OLB Northwestern 1 31 Robert Thomas OLB UCLA 2003 1 32 Tyler Brayton OLB Colorado 2004 1 17 D.J. Williams OLB Miami 1 27 Jason Babin OLB Western Michigan 2005 1 11 DeMarcus Ware OLB Troy 1 12 Shawne Merriman OLB Maryland 1 15 Derrick Johnson OLB Texas 1 17 David Pollack OLB Georgia
You did a nice analysis, but you must remember that the draft PERIOD is a crapshoot. You don't truly know whether the player will become a dud or a stud. Look at Kellen Winslow, JR. assumed to be an automatic. Right now, Leinart looks to be as much of a safe bet as anybody.
There are all of the 1st rd draft picks by postions that the Jets are looking at this year. Its all just a crap shoot no matter what way we go. If we have a choice of Matt or Williams at #4, I like Williams but glad that I dont have to make the call. More first round tackles then I had thought.
