Trying to figure this move out from a financial perspective. Sanchez is going to be the favorite to start the 2012 season, and I hope that he is with our current depth chart. However, Tebow is going to bring in the circus of "Tebow" Chants, and could ultimately beat him out. Sanchez is due ~8.5mil in 2012 and ~12mil in 2013 Tebow is due ~3mil in 2012 (Escalators included) and ~5mil in 2013 So either Tebow is a 1 year player or we are in trouble next year. (Sanchez just restructured, and good luck getting him to do it again. Tebow wants to be a starter) ~17mil in QB salary + 3rd stringer. Way to much for a ground and pound team. (Most teams) A couple scenarios: Sanchez is our Qb of the future, we blew the load on the trade, and no one will care because Sanchez took the step forward needed. We trade or cut Tebow. Tebow gets 5-7 plays a game means we will be paying ~3mil for at most 112 plays a year. (not including playoffs) Makes trade look stupid, and we trade or cut Tebow. Tebow and Sanchez split time (say 70/30) we are playing our 1st string qb top tier money for 70% of action. No wise business man is going to pay top tier money for 70% productivity. Tebow beats out Sanchez and we are paying our backup a shitload of money, and we are still screwed in 2013. We are financially fucked. So for a more business look at things, how does this make sense? Most educated guess would be to provide competition for Sanchez. If Sanchez splits time (70/30) or gets beat out by Tebow then Sanchez will be a bench weight worth 12mil next year. We obviously can't cut Sanchez this year or next for financial reasons. I also don't believe Tebow will be a 1 year player for us. Starting to think in circles over this. Ultimately, can we trade Sanchez, and pass on the guaranteed money to some other dumb team?
Absolutely, we'll just be releasing our franchise Qb to the open market to accomodate our 4th round draft choice trade from the previous year. I think this is where I'm supposed to show you this in reply:
I think we have to wait after this season and see how the Tebow experiment works and then we'll know more about whether the Jets plan on keeping Tebow. If this thing works really well, then the Jets will obviously keep Tebow backing up Sanchez.
He will be traded before the deadline this year to a QB needy team for more than he is worth or we will use him effectively in the Wildcat. We will end up winning with this deal unless dumbass Jets fans start clamoring for Tebow when Sanchez makes a dumb play (which he won't make as often this year).
I honestly thought that for a few minutes. It would be interesting to see the details of that deal with Tebow in it. But it's not going to happen. Rex and Sparano want him for the offense bad.
The good thing about Tebow is his value of selling tickets to Tebow-lovers probably won't go down until he gets his real chance. If Sanchez plays well, Tebow still has value because he can drive interest. Plus, if he actually improves as a pocket passer and pure QB (remember, he didn't have last offseason to work on that throwing motion either), then his value could also increase that way. If he didn't come with all his baggage, I wouldn't mind this move at all. Brings in a backup QB who can push Sanchez a little bit, but mostly provide a different dynamic to our offense we missed last year. Of course, he does have the baggage. Who knows how that will affect the team. All I know is we'll be running plenty of Wildcat packages next season. Sparano enjoys it and so does Rex. This also signals to me that we're going to bring in another runningback. And hopefully a right tackle, too. By the same token, I wouldn't be shocked if Chaz Schilens starts day one at wideout for us either.
Not the worse suggestion, but Jax have to be out of their mind to pull such trade. The 7th pick is worth 1500 points on one of the draft value points. Jets 16th pick is worth 1000 points. Jax' 2nd round pick is work 510 points. Basically its like Jax trading away a 500 points to get Tebow. They could have offered their 2nd round pick (510 points) to the Broncos and would have had the deal done in a heartbeat. To get Tebows best value, I think Jets will either play in situations where he has greater success, or wait till a QB needy team overpays for him, say a 2nd, and picks prorated part of salary advance Jets paid the Donkeys. Best case scenario: Tebow plays about 150 snaps, rushes 100 times for 700 yards, 8 TDs and throws couple of TDs in 50 attempts with 600 yards passing. On average, thats 6 rushes, and 3 passing attempts a game mainly playing the wildcat offense. That could earn us possibly a 2nd from a QB needy team. Worse case scenario: Tebow plays 80 snaps, 60 rushes for 250 yards, 4 TD, 20 attempts, 4 picks, no TD, and gets traded for a conditional 5th round pick. Its hard to imagine him being a NYJ in 2013 though. The OP brings a valid point as far as salary cap is concerned and thats why I think Jets got Tebow because of his low base this year and the potential income he brings with him.
http://nyjetscap.com/2012_Articles/tebowcontract.php the NYJcap.com take. Sounds like a not so painful deal financially as the OP made it sound
Tebow is due 1.5 million this year, not 3 and the 2013 and 2014 amounts are only based on him playing 40% of the downs, otherwise they are 1.1 mil and 670k..his contract is 11 million over 5 years and half of the 5 million left on the advance was paid by Denver. He is not going to bankrupt this team.
No way we outright release either one of these guys without getting something back in return. I don't see Tebow as having any opportunity to be the starting QB without Sanchez going down to injury. I see this as a one year wait and see what happens and how Sparano can use this guy, type of scenario. If this improves our red zone offense and we have success with it then the money spent will pay dividends. Not to mention the positive PR and extra ticket sales Tebow will bring. In the end, Tebow's contract can be reworked to make it more cap friendly.
Well I guess this is the information that I was looking for. Listening to NFL network they were implying that we were on the hook for the 3mil and 5mil next year, in which he already hit the escalators in the 2011 season. Do you have a link?
The last sentence says he won't make over 6mil, greater than the 5mil I was thinking. Additionally, it says that Tebow has already hit the escalators. It plainly says he is due 6mil next year and 7mil in 2014. How is that less painful?
Yea - according to that article he's already hit those escalators and is due over $6 million next year. Hopefully we can recover some of the cost of this 1 year rental next year.
Things get more expensive when your up against it, and they need to sell tickets. Not very far fetched. I Just don't see it happening.
So the hope is that we bring him in now, he plays 10-15 snaps per game, Woody sells some PSLs & jerseys, and then we try to recover our 4th rounder by trading him to Jacksonville or St. Louis next year?
