Trading Down: The Critical Flaw

ya i dont want to trade down either cause with our luck the person we would trade down for would get taken anyway before our pick

 

You're right, DBJ, but the reason why it might be easier to find a partner this year is that there are at least a half-dozen players that someone claims is an elite prospect, and they're at game-changing positions like QB and LB (to me RBs are far easier to get, but the difference is that Bush seems to be a once-a-decade prospect). I could see some other team desperately wanting a Young, Cutler, or Hawk, and trading up a few spots to get him.

I'm not a draftnik at all, so I don't claim to know what the team should do. I do think, however, that given the question marks around all three QBs in the top 4, trading up would be a risk not worth taking.

 

i think if we trade down, were not going past the 10th pick. I personally think that the raiders would be our best choice right now. Supposedley they have interest in Young and will be looking for a QB in this draft, somewhere. Al Davis has been known to make some ballzy moves, for better or worse, usually worse. But in the scenario as it stands now, unless the raiders somehow get a statring cliaber QB before the draft I think they will be looking to trade up with us, and at our spot they can still get Young or Cutler. If we trade down, I wouldn't mind Vernon Davis, though I don't think he's really something we need, a game-changing offenseive player is certainly on the list, but I think o-line hs got to be a higher priority. If we could trade down and get an extra second or third round pick, we might be able to use that on oline i guess, and draft with the highest pick, a BPA player.

 

I agree. Many people seem to think we should be able to magically wave a wand and force other people to do what we want. Whether its trade down, trade players, or sign FA's. Life is not that easy. Often it is luck, who we know and being in the right place at the right time. My respect for a GM or FO is more from not what they do but what deals they don't do. The longer I live and the more I read these boards the more it seems that patience and empathy for others are not qualities possessed by many young people.

 

I agree that we'll have trouble finding a trading partner with a fair price. The 4 pick is still widely rumored to be considered something of a grey spot and I don't think we'll get anything close to fair value in a trade down scenario. 2 firsts and a fourth would be my asking offer in this year's draft.

 

The Raiders want to trade up, trade down to #7 and draft DeAngelo and pick up some extra picks in the process.

 

Why would the Raiders trade up to 4 for Vince Young when he will most likely either be gone at 3 or he will be available at 7?

 

I agree with you, for the most part. You may want to trade down, but I'm sure if the price is right, every team would trade down.

You can't force a trade down and get an undervalued trade because you seemed desperate. Negotiate tough. Throw the idea out there, but you can't, CAN'T seem desperate about it or else teams won't want to give you anything.

 

Couldn't agree with you more. I say stay where you are and get whoever falls to 4. We'll get an elite player regardless. Whether it's an offensive or defensive player.

 

I don't think some of you understand how srtong the top of this draft is. There are alot of teams that would love to trade up giving the talent that there is. This isn't a year where there are 2 mediocre QB's or three RB's with big questions(2005), this is a field with top players at big positions. Having a pick in the top five is huge. We have so many problems that spending the money alone on a #4 pick will hurt. trade down and get more value, it's still going to be there.

 

I have no problem with trade down....the problem is there are only 4DOMINTATE players in this draft IMO, so if we stay where we are we get one of them. Although trading down and taking Justice doesnt seem like a bad idea now.

 

I don't know, but there has got to be to be more then 4 great players this year. You have Bush, Mario, Brick, and Matt. Then there's VY, AJ, VD, JC, and DW to name a few. Plenty of talent, let's get as much as we can.

 

agreed wholeheartedly...

unless we could convince them that we wanted Vince?

 

Some good points here. For a variety of reasons I think the leverage the Jets have for trading down has diminished.

1. With the Saints signing Brees, Lions signing Kitna/McCown (and to a lesser extent the Jets and Chad) the chances of one of the top 3 QB'sdropping is significantly higher than it was a month ago. For a while it looked like a team such as Arizona would have to trade into the top 5 or 6 to get a QB. Now the odds of Young or Cutler falling to #10 are quite good. At the very least trading into the top 5 should not be neccessary.

2. With Winston Justice's pro day performance, the gap between him and D'Brick has closed enough that if you're a team in the 8-11 range I don't know if I trade up to #4 for D'Brick anymore if I think Justice will be there.

The way the the draft is playing out, the player most likely to cause interest in trading to #4 would be Mario Williams if he's there.

 

Or make the raiders paranoid that someone would trade up 1 ahead of them at the 49ers spot and grab vince before they do. Thus making sure Al Davis gets his man in young and we get their 2nd round and their 7 overall.

 

I would rather hear all the rumors, have our FO talk to alot of players, bring them in for workouts, use as much smoke and mirrors as possible, so that we can stay put and draft mario williams who is worth a 4th pick, then draft mangold at 29, and draft a OT with the 35 pick.

 

I could live with that....if Williams is there.