Chad Pennington is on the hot seat, largely due to his performance the past two games. In Pennington's first three starts, his passer rating was a stellar 105.8. In his last two starts, that figure has dropped to 51.6.What is the cause for the decline? Many pundits are claiming the problem is Pennington's inability to throw the ball vertically. The evidence they point to is Pennington's meager 28.2 passer rating on deep throws (passes 21-plus yards downfield) this season. He also has attempted zero bomb passes. But those numbers don't tell the entire story of Pennington's woes. Deep and bomb passes are only two segments of the vertical passing game. Medium passes are also considered vertical passes and typically account for 60-70 percent of a team's vertical throws. Pennington is doing a fantastic job on medium throws, with a 103.9 passer rating at that depth level this season. Furthermore, take a look at Pennington's depth level metrics in the past two games: Hanging Chad Depth Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen P-Yds YPA Short 33 20 120 0 2 1 4 3.8 Medium 12 7 122 0 1 0 0 10.2 Deep 11 5 115 1 1 0 0 10.5 Bomb 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 His medium- and deep-pass numbers are more than adequate, and if the 54 yards he lost on dropped passes was factored back into his passing yardage, his overall medium/deep yards per attempt during this stretch would be 12.6. To put that figure in perspective, consider that Pennington's medium/deep YPA average in 2006 was 10.2 yards.It is also worth noting Pennington has never been much of a bomb passer. He threw only 20 bomb passes in all of 2006, the third-lowest total among quarterbacks with 16 starts. Only Steve McNair and David Carr threw fewer bomb passes. Pennington's real issue has nothing to do with arm strength and everything to do with bad decision making. In the past two games, Pennington has made five bad decisions in 63 total dropbacks, for a 7.9 bad decision percentage, more than three times his 2.3 rate in 2006. It is not just the volume of bad decisions -- the variety of bad decisions is just as disturbing.On two occasions, Pennington stared at his receiver, leading to the defender getting his hands on the ball. On two other passes, Pennington didn't see a defender in the passing lane. The other bad decision came when Pennington fell victim to a defense disguising zone coverage as man coverage. The staring has been a consistent issue for Pennington. He had eight of these types of mistakes in 2006, but the other two types of bad decisions are quite unlike him.The numbers indicate a solution to Pennington's recent slump won't come from time spent in the weight room. It will come from time spent in the film room. KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His core passing metrics can be found in the ESPN Fantasy Football Magazine, which is on newsstands now. A free sample of his latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available at his Web site. > http://insider.espn.go.com/proxy/pr.../proxy/proxy.dll/insider/sportindex?sport=nfl
interesting stats, i agree its not his arm strength that is the issue, everyone just likes to pick on him for that he is just plain playing bad football, and he definately doesn't disguise where he is going, he stares the entire time, i dont get it, somethings up with him
As a "Football Scientist," KC Joyner looks at numbers. From the post it is clear that he doesn't actually watch the games (or if he does, he isn't watching closely). Most of Pennington's medium passes have been the jump ball variety or the kind that give the defense the extra step to blow-up a WR. Furthermore, a fair amount of medium passes are a result of YAC. I'd be interested to see if he is counting yards in the air or total yards on the play.
Mangini probably sees the same thing (poor decision making), thats why he has stuck with him. But how long can you stick with a struggling QB. Lets time how long it takes FOURTHANDLONG and the other hates to flock to this thread
I pointed this stuff out the other day. The QB coach should be gone already. Staring down targets, No Pump Fakes are QB coach issues, and no Play Fakes is a an OC issue. When was the last time you saw chad tuck the ball behind his ass, then wheel around and hit someone ?
Joyner does consider a bomb pass more than 30 yards, vertical pass 20-29, and medium 10-19. However, I wouldn't call a bomb 30 yards by any stretch. Pennington's arm strength is still a huge issue because he doesn't get it to the receivers fast enough so they can get YAC like KC did in the Ravens game. Plus Chad is turning over the football and in key moments during the second half.
Nice take Hobbes. If anyone knows Jet football they will tell you that Chad managed to get by in previous seasons with smart football throws not bombs. What has happened to in (my opinion) the best play fake passer since Steve Deburgh? We never see him sell out the D with this skill anymore. I also think the play calling from the OC is questionable in critical situations this season too.
When the receivers get YAC when Kellen throws them the ball, it's because of Kellen. When Chad does it, people give all of the credit to the receivers. This double-standard is stupid. They either get YAC or they don't. The receivers have gotten their share when Chad's thrown it. The passes to Cotchery in that Raven game were nothing special as the defenders were right on top of Cotchery and they just missed the tackle.
^There is a difference. A receiver can get YAC from out fighting a defender, breaking tackles, and good open field running. Or they can be hit in stride and run away from the defense. Which is more likely to happen and produce big plays? The fact that this team does not produce big plays should answer that question. And thats why Clemens gets credit for YAC - he hits recievers in stride. And Pennington doesn't, because the recievers have to fight for the YAC.
If people are saying that all the YAC receivers get when Kellen was the QB is because of him, and none of Chad's is because of him it's hypocritical... But, as far as medium-to-long passes go, WRs almost never get decent YAC, except on the occasional PA pass over the middle to Cotchery, with Chad at QB, because the defenders close and make the tackles too fast..... When Kellen was in, he had 4 or 5 occasions where he got the ball 15-25 yards downfield, and into the WR's hand quickly, resulting in a LOT of YAC.... People's problem with the YAC the receivers get for Chad is that it's largely on dump off passes, where Chad will hit the RB or WR behind, at, or 1 yard beyond the LOS, and the receiver will break a tackle or two and turn nothing into 2 or 3 yards, boosting Chad's YPA.... At least that's been my argument when people mention Chad's YPA as an argument that his arm strength is not a major issue.... Where most QBs will attempt a downfield pass, throw the ball away, or scramble for yardage, Chad checks down every single time, giving him a 1,2, or 3 yard completion instead of a 0 added to the average... So instead of completing 60% of his passes with a good YPA, and a few big, game-breaking plays, he completes 72-75% of his passes with a good YPA, and zero big, game-breaking plays.... In the two minute drill, or on 3rd and long, a 3 yard pass does nothing but maintain Chad's YPA....
Sorry Im a little late getting around to you today! ) Without his smarts Chad serves no purpose on the field. On a brighter note I think he would make a great Qb Coach for Clemens so lets see if Mangini can make it happen.
Wow, talk out of your ass much? All the YAC in Kellen Clemens whole one game of starting was Cotchery fighting off defenders and breaking free. Your theory sounded good and all and I'm sure you actually believed it but unfortunately it was completely false..
I counted yards in the air for the first 4 games, before watching Chad pass made me want to vomit, and I couldn't bare to re-watch the games... Chad had 5 passes completed in each of his first three starts that travelled over 10 yards in the air... Clemens had, it was either 9 or 11 in his one start, I don't remember exactly.... As of the end of week 4, Chad had the lowest percentage of his completions traveling over 10 yards in the air of any QB who had started at least 2 games in the entire league.... That's my addition to that conversation, and the most research I plan to do for the rest of this dismal season... I think my numbers are more indicative than this so-called football scientist's....
That was one play, albeit it was about 30 yards of YAC that he picked up on what turned out to be a 50 yard play..... I wish I still had the numbers, but I don't, but I can assure you that he had a LOT more YAC than that, and most of it was due to good medium-range throws..
Joyner mentions bad decisions and certainly every QB goes through this from time to time, Pennington included (and most recently). But compounding this for Pennington is the fact that it takes him 12 or more plays to get the ball downfield. So if you're in a bad-decision slump, the more chopped-up, short-yardage plays you have to do only exacerbates your chances of making glaring mistakes. I still say the lack of a deep ball begats closer coverage, which necessitates an even shorter pass, which then brings them in even closer, and on and on into infinity. Pretty soon, you're constantly at 3rd and 2 and eventually one of those 3rd and 2's fails when even a 1-yard pass to Leon is smothered like all get-out and you're unable to convert.
You could assure me huh? Well I could assure you that you are wrong. Cotchery had two plays that he gained significant YAC in which he had broken tackles to get free. Whatever it takes to suit your argument though, right?
CP can hoof the ball on the incredibly rare occasion , but the longer the throw the more he seems to use the whole of his body to launch it , it looks ugly and is more often than not overthrown , oh the irony.
He did break tackles, but on the other one (40 something yards, not the 50 yarder) he wasn't hit until he had gotten turned up field and gained about 6 or 7 YAC yards, if I recall correctly... That is attributed to the QB, for giving him the chance to turn catch the ball and make a play... On the other one, he was hit immediately, and made a big play, that is attributed to the WR
You get the balls to the playmakers to make plays. The best season Vinny had was when Parcells forced him to check down to the backs, K. Byers comes to mind. In fact, the backs caught 30% of the balls. If you can get Leon the ball and he makes one guy miss, gains 20 yards that's what you do because it is a higher percentage play. If you count YAC for one QB, you count it for both. Does Chad not get the YAC for Cotch when he hit him in stride on the crossing route last week? What about the one that hit Coles in the hands and he dropped. That could have likely went for a TD. I am so sick of the double standard. Clemens plays like crap for 3 quarters until the game is basically out of hand, throws a pick in the endzone against Baltimore and it was the greatest game a QB ever played. Chad throws a pick to tie the game at Buffalo and he is the worst QB in the league. The sad thing is in 2 years, the people talking about Chad and his arm will be talking about Kellen and his decisions just like they did with Vinny. I am sorry, but the route combinations under this offensive scheme suck. The Coles drop was the most open I have seen a WR in two years.
