9.5 is a good number with a hard schedule if we win 10 games it might be just enough to bring Rogers back for a second year.
They have to take into account the possibility of Rodgers not playing for the Jets. If the trade goes through i would think that number goes up.
It sounds like they are counting on the Jets not signing Rodgers. Hard to believe they think he only improves the team by 2-3 games over Wilson & company. I guess anything can happen.
The win line was 5.5 at this point last season. https://jetsxfactor.com/2022/03/30/ny-jets-over-under-2022/
They are not making the line as if Rodgers is already on the Jets. They balance the probability of his getting traded along with the current players on the roster. If the trade goes through the total will increase, if it appears the trade is toast then the total will go down.
That's actually the current chance of Rodgers coming vs. whoever the Jets would get if he doesn't to get to the 2-3 game difference. If Rodgers does come on board, expect it to go up a bit; if he doesn't and the Jets don't bring in a JAG leaving only Wilson, expect it to go way down.
