Allen Vs Mayfield at the 3 pick - what the film shows

I know there are a million discussions on this and it'll likely be moved so mods do as you please, but i felt this was going to be long enough to warrant it's own discussion. Before we get into the film, lets look at the tangibles

Allen - 6-5 233lbs. Your prototypical QB size you want in the NFL. comparable to big ben and cam newton. Rocket arm. Biggest in the draft and will be one of the biggest in the NFL

Mayfield between 6' and 6'1" 220 lbs. In the modern NFL the only successful QB of that height or smaller is russel wilson. wilson was a 3rd round pick and went to a team with a great defense and great run game. he never had to carry a team or really play from behind much. Average Arm strength, which can be tough to play on the east coast in bad weather.

Now lets look at the film breakdowns. a few things to note, this is "highlight reel" film. Meaning you won't see consistency, you won't see bad plays, you won't see INTs or anything of the like. It's going to be the best plays the QBs can do or in other words, their ceilings. I'll break down every play form the videos on each

Some abbreviations used
UC (under center)
SG (shotgun)
PA (play action)
RO (roll out)
QBD (QB draw play)

Due to post length i'll only do about the 1st 3 mins or so. I also ask people refrain form commenting until I post it all as it'll take multiple posts

Josh Allen.
Link:
Length 12min
Date 3/2018

17) UC, PA, steps up in pocket, guns a 27 yard TD perfect placement between 2 DBs. play length 4 seconds




36) UC, PA, timing route on a slant pattern. throws on time. perfect accuracy. 17 yard TD.



54) SG, PA, pocket collapses, rolls out to his right, jumps off one foot before going out of bounds and launches a rocket 47+ yards downfield for a TD. Very similar of a throw to the famous "wentz one" in the NFL this past season



(1:10) SG, Pocket collapses, rolls right. Jumping throw 40ish yards and high to the back of the end zone. perfect placement and a TD



(1:23) SG, clean pocket, steps up to throw, perfect 50 yard TD dropped in over the head of the WR in stride. This is a big one, because as we'll see later, mayfield just doens't make throws like this


(1:46) SG, 35 yard bullet, clean pocket, leads WR into the endzone for a TD.




(2:06) UC, PA, RO, Stands in the face of pressure and delivers a 30 yard perfect TD pass with touch dropped in front of the WR



(2:26) SG, PA, from the 15, avoids rush to buy time, fires into a tight window for a TD


(2:43) UC, RO, from the 25, pump fake twice, throws against his body (all arm) 35ish yards on a rope with a perfectly placed ball for a TD


(2:55) SG from the 47, avoids the rush, throws on the run 50 yards downfield on a rope in a perfect spot to a covered WR for the TD


Conclusion:
What i see from this is a QB who can buy time and make throws very few can make. Accuracy isn't a number or stat, it's the ability to place the ball where it needs to be when it needs to be there, and Allen shows that very well. You can see "NFL" passes in these clips. throwing into tight windows, throwing on time, huge arm, accuracy on the run. the ability to play from under center. timing routes, and the ability to drop it in the bucket in stride to a WR with 1 step on the DB.

Now onto post 2. Mayfield

 

Baker Mayfield
Link:
Length 7:02 (it was hard finding a newer long video of his)
Date: 12/2017

00) SG, PA, Wide open TE, misses high, TE makes the catch but falls down short of the goaline. should have been a walk in TD (missing high down the field is a theme for him as you'll see)


07) SG, from the 17, WR has a step on the DB, perfect time to drop it in the bucket ahead of the WR like allen does above

He misses outside and WR has to adjust to make the TD harder then it should have been


18) SG form the 5, PA, 1 read timing route, TE is wide open, completes the pass, but again high and the TE has to adjust on what should have been an easy TD

24) SG, from the 4, PA, RO, hits wide open WR in the end zone in stride. perfect pass but no pressure and very easy routine play to a wide open WR

(35) SG from the 18, PA, timing route on the slant. he throws high and behind the WR. the WR makes a nice catch and gets the TD but takes an unnecessary hit on what should have been a walk in TD.

45) From the 10, SG, pocket collapses, he buys time and makes a great throw to his target in between 2 defenders in stride. Best play i've seen mayfield make but it was a under 10 yard pass on the run

53) SG from the 25, 3rd and 8, clean packet, timing route back shoulder throw, solid throw and the WR makes a great play on it. no complaints here. one of his better throws

(1:00) SG, PA, perfect pass to a wide open WR downfield on a blown coverage


(1:12) SG form the 22, rolls out, throws downfield high again


(1:22) SG form the 21, clean pocket, easy TD to pass to a wide open WR he underthrows

(1:28) SG form the 12, timing route on the slant. WR wide open. throw is high and outside and WR has to adjust on what should have been an easy TD

(1:36) SG form the 24, clean pocket, pump fake, throws downfield to an open WR. throw is behind and WR needs to adjust leading to an unnecessary hit on what should have been an easy TD


Conclusion:
What i see from this is a QB who can buy time and has good accuracy on shorter passes. Down the field however he struggles with ball placement often having deep balls sail on him, or under throwing his WRs. he's also benefited from having huge windows to throw into, that he won't have in the NFL. Accuracy isn't a number or stat, it's the ability to place the ball where it needs to be when it needs to be there, and mayfield struggles doing that over 10 yards. While many went for TDs and completions, they weren't well thrown balls which is why you can't go by stats. You don't see many "NFL" passes in these clips. no throwing into tight windows, no film on playing from under center. timing routes, and no ability to drop it in the bucket in stride to a WR with 1 step on the DB. This is why i don't see mayfield as an accurate QB or a successful QB in the NFL

If there is a high enough demand i can do more breakdown of each play in the clips above as well. You are all now free to comment

 

thanks! I think the pics above speak volumes about accuracy much more then people just yelling at each other lol

 

the 2nd pic the WR has a step on the DB, the throw should be high and leading him aka a "drop in the bucket throw" he throws it way outside instead of dropping it in front of the Wr like you should, and the WR has to turn around and jump outside to make the play.

there was nobody behind the WR to contest the throw, this was a typical seam route that should have been dropped into the back of the end zone over all the coverage. the WR ha to stop and make a big adjustment on a poorly thrown ball

the 3rd one
the TE was wide open off the line. nobody behind him and everyone beat. mayfield jumps in the air fading backwards for no good reason (possibly lack of height) making the throw sail and be behind the TE. He could have easily dropped it in front of him. nobody was there


He seems to "throw to the WR" in situations he needs to "throw to a spot" you don't get more open then that in football in the red zone

 

I could but i think the general consensus here is that most would prefer rosen if darnold isn't there. the board was much more divided after darnold/rosen. I could do a jackson one as well i guess. maybe a jackson/rosen one? that would cover everyone but darnold who seems like he'll be a brown 1st overall so not much of a point

 

it wouldn't suprise me. I wasn't very high on allen to start, but the more i look at his film, the more i like him. his pro day was excellent and he improved his mechanics a lot. plus he has the talent you can't teach, an arm that can make some pretty rare throws. At this point, i'd be pretty happy to have Allen as a jet. I'll try and do a jackson/rosen one as well. I doubt we take jackson as 3 is quite a reach for him, but it'll be nice to compare directly with the other 3

 

lol ok give me a bit