2002 Made playoffs in Herm's 2nd year after 1-4 start.

I am not expecting any miracles, it clearly looks like we took a big step backwards in 10 months, and Bowles appears to be in way over his head in a major way, but there are some very strange parallels. I guess we can still be positive for 2 more days anyway. I am going to the Ravens game next week and really would like a sliver of hope going in!!

Article was pasted, not my research.

******Let’s dissect the many similarities and differences of that season to this season and try to find a reason, any reason, to believe this year’s team can turn it around before it’s too late.

2002 First Win: A 37-31 win over the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium in overtime

2016 First Win: A 37-31 win over the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium in regulation

I’m not making this up—one of the creepiest parallels between the 2002 and 2016 Jets is the first win’s opponent, score and venue. In 2002, it was Opening Day; the indomitable Chad Morton returned the opening kickoff 96 yards to end overtime before it began. This year’s win over the Bills will be memorable, too, for being the Jets’ first win over former head coach Rex Ryan.

In both 2002 and 2016, the wins showed what the Jets can be at their best. In ’02, the Jets’ playmakers showed up (Morton actually had two KR TDs). In ’16, Matt Forte scored three touchdowns against the Bills (and hasn’t scored since), but they were boosted by Fitzpatrick’s best game this season. This year, Buffalo has won three straight games since that loss and are just a game out from New England, who, incidentally, they already beat head-to-head. Buffalo didn’t seem like a tough opponent in Week 2, but this is just food for thought.

2002 First Four Losses: Patriots, @Dolphins, @Jaguars, Chiefs

2016 First Four Losses: Bengals, @chiefs, Seahawks, @Steelers

In both seasons, the Jets lost two at home and two on the road, but this year they have a sort of advantage: They have yet to lose to an AFC East opponent. In fact, they’re the only team who still has a chance of going 6-0 against divisional rivals, as unlikely as that sounds.

The teams who beat the Jets in 2002 all missed the playoffs. New England and Miami both finished 9-7, losing a three-way tiebreaker to the Jets for the division title; Kansas City went 8-8 and Jacksonville finished 6-10. Meanwhile, the four teams to beat the Jets this year are coming off postseason appearances. That can be seen as an excuse and a comfort—the schedule’s soft middle is still ahead—but as Matt Barbato and others have argued, it also means that the Jets can’t currently hold their own against competitive teams.

2002 Head Coach: Herman Edwards, second year

2016 Head Coach: Todd Bowles, second year

Both head coaches were in their second campaigns not only as the Jets’ head coach, but also as NFL head coaches in general. Bowles is the antithesis of the fiery Edwards; he just doesn’t have a “play to win” pep talk in him. Or maybe he does and he’s saving it for the right time, but I’d argue the right time was a few weeks ago. Bowles has come under fire for poor strategy in recent weeks, whereas Edwards was a much-respected coach in his early years with the Jets.

2002 QB Situation: Chad Pennington takes over for Vinny Testaverde Week 5

2016 QB Situation: Ryan Fitzpatrick throws 10 interceptions in first five games

An aging, veteran, journeyman quarterback started the season for the Jets in both cases. Testaverde was 38 Week 1; Fitz is 33. Testaverde didn’t play necessarily poorly to begin with, but he left the Jets’ Week 4 game early with a bruised right shoulder and slightly pinched nerve. Pennington took the reins and didn’t let go—he led the league in passer rating (104.2), went 8-4 as a starter and led the Jets in their Wild Card Round rout of Peyton Manning’s Colts.

This year… well, it remains to be seen what will become of Fitzpatrick. The Jets kept three other quarterbacks on the active roster, any of whom could see game action before the year is through, any of whom could be the next Pennington…? Maybe not. If Fitz gets benched, the next man up would most likely be Geno Smith, who has been passive-aggressively chomping at the bit for another shot.

2002 AFC Outlook: Jets won division at 9-7; No. 6 Browns were 9-7

2016 AFC Outlook: Through five weeks, Patriots lead division at 4-1; several Wild Card contenders

Even though they were defending Super Bowl champs in 2002, the Patriots were not a dynasty yet. Now it’s impossible to imagine a situation where the Patriots won’t win at least 10 games. As the case has been since 2002 (the last time the Jets actually won their division), New York’s road to the playoffs goes through the wild cards.

The AFC looks pretty strong this year, with the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens having surprising winning streaks at different points to help them to 3-2, and the Oakland Raiders now lead Denver by a half-game for the AFC West (4-1 to 4-2). The Bengals are 2-3 and the Chiefs are 2-2, and if they’re competing in December, they have the head-to-heads against New York already in their pockets. The Jets didn’t have to worry about the wild card in 2002 – the good old days, right? – but that year, Cleveland made the postseason with nine wins. That just might not be enough this time around.

CONCLUSION

This is far from scientific analysis. I’m no Nate Silver. And I’m not going to say the Jets need to make a change at quarterback right away because of the Pennington “precedent.”

My first recommendation, to the fans, is: Chill. Don’t sound the sirens yet. Teams can turn it around from rocky starts. They actually do it all the time. Last year, both the Chiefs and Texans made the playoffs after 1-4 starts (the Chiefs even went 1-5). I went so far as to predict a 1-5 start cushioned by an 8-2 finish before the season began.

But I don’t blame any of you for checking your optimism at the door with this team. The Jets need to change something vital in order to compete, fast. It may not be a QB switch or a head coach tirade. If I got to vote, I’d say do something new and radical with the secondary, but that’s an article for another day. The 2016 Jets have a much tougher path than the 2002 Jets to make the playoffs because of the AFC wild card competition. But if they invigorate this team with some shakeups, the postseason ship hasn’t sailed just yet.

 

2001 Carolina Panthers started 1-4, but made the playoffs. Oh wait............. they went 1-15, never mind!