In light of the discussion that has taken place on this message board pertaining to the news of the Eagles/Rams trades for the rights to the #1 and #2 overall picks in this year's NFL Draft, I thought it would be interesting and instructive to make a comprehensive list of all the quarterbacks drafed in the top 3 of the first round, over the last 30 NFL drafts. The assumption here is that these guys were presumably all top QB prospects, generally espoused by NFL pundits everywhere as future franchise quarterbacks at the time of their respective drafts. I also decided to bold the names of the quarterbacks, who, in my humble opinion, ended up being worth something close to the king's ransoms that both the Rams and Eagles gave up for their respective picks. For the record, this thread is not intended to convince anyone of anything, nor is it intended to serve as a conduit for debate about the Eagles and/or Rams trades. However, I do think it is rather enlightening to get a feel for how often top QB prospects fail to live up to the hype. Now, for the list: Jim Everett - Houston Oilers - #3 overall pick (1986 NFL Draft) Vinny Testaverde - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - #1 overall pick (1987 NFL Draft) Troy Aikman - Dallas Cowboys - #1 overall pick (1989 NFL Draft) Jeff George - Indianapolis Colts - #1 overall pick (1990 NFL Draft) Drew Bledsoe - New England Patriots - #1 overall pick (1993 NFL Draft) Rick Mirer - Seattle Seahawks - #2 overall pick (1993 NFL Draft) Heath Shuler - Washington Redskins - #3 overall pick (1994 NFL Draft) Steve McNair - Houston Oilers - #3 overall pick (1995 NFL Draft) Peyton Manning - Indianapolis Colts - #1 overall pick (1998 NFL Draft) Ryan Leaf - San Diego Chargers - #2 overall pick (1998 NFL Draft) Tim Couch - Cleveland Browns - #1 overall pick (1999 NFL Draft) Donovan McNaab - Philadelphia Eagles - #2 overall pick (1999 NFL Draft) Akili Smith - Cincinnati Bengals - #3 overall pick (1999 NFL Draft) Michael Vick - Atlanta Falcons - #1 overall pick (2001 NFL Draft)* David Carr - Houston Texans - #1 overall pick (2002 NFL Draft) Joey Harrington - Detroit Lions - #3 overall pick (2002 NFL Draft) Carson Palmer - Cinncinati Bengals - #1 overall pick (2003 NFL Draft)* Eli Manning - San Diego Chargers (traded to NYG) - #1 overall pick (2004 NFL Draft) Alex Smith - San Francisco 49ers - #1 overall pick (2005 NFL Draft) Vince Young - Tennessee Titans - #3 overall pick (2006 NFL Draft) Jamarcus Russell - Oakland Raiders - #1 overall pick (2007 NFL Draft) Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons - #3 overall pick (2008 NFL Draft) Mathew Stafford - Detroit Lions - #1 overall pick (2009 NFL Draft)* Sam Bradford - St Louis Rams - #1 overall pick (2010 NFL Draft) Cam Newton - Carolina Panthers - #1 overall pick (2011 NFL Draft) Andrew Luck - Indianapolis Colts - #1 overall pick (2012 NFL Draft) RG3 - Washington Redskins - #2 overall pick (2012 NFL Draft) Blake Bortles - Jacksonville Jaguars - -#3 overall pick (2014 NFL Draft) [Too Early] Jameis Winston - Tampa Bay Bucs - #1 overall pick (2015 NFL draft) [Too Early] Marcus Mariota - Tennessee Titans - #2 overall pick (2015 NFL Draft) [Too Early] Excluding Borles, Winston, and Mariota from my analysis (too early for all three), I count roughly 11 guys (out of the 27 who were drafted) who, in hindsight, I personally believe ended up being worth something close to what the Rams and Eagles each just gave away. That is, in my opinion, roughly 40.7% of the QBs drafted in the top 3 of the NFL draft over the last 30 years wound up being worth what the Rams and Eagles each just gave up. Some inferences and general comments: 1) I was conservative. In my mind, it easily could have been worse. I put an (*) next to the guys who I thought were debatable. When in doubt, I gave the Qb in question the denefit of the doubt. IMO, you could make a very good argument that some of the guys with an (*) next to their name should not be bolded. 2) 2004 was a fascinating year that, in retrospect, is quite relevant to the current debate regarding whether or not it is generally worth it to trade into the top few picks for a franchise QB. We all know that the Giants made a huge trade with the Chargers (giving up a boatload of picks, in the process) to acquire the rights to #1 overall pick Ei Manning. Well, despite the fact that I would argue that Eli was "worth it" for them overall, one could easily point out the Giants would have been better off staying at #4 (their original spot) and taking either Phillip Rivers or Ben Roethisburger (and giving up NOTHING). I don't want to belabor this point because the Giants did get someone who worked out for them, but the point is that we aren't just talking about drafting a QB in the top 2 or 3, we are talking about trading away a shitload of picks for the right to draft a QB in the top 2 or 3. Big difference. 3) Lastly, for those of you wondering what a similar analysis looks like for the top 5 or top 10, trust me when I tell you that it's even more bleak. There really are a fuckload of busts and the conventonal wisdom really is wrong quite a bit. Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, I wanted to limit the analysis to draft positions that woud require similar assets in a trade to what the Eagles and Rams both just gave up.
matthew stafford should be bold. its a crap shoot unless you have a really cant miss guy like luck or manning.
Too inconsistent for me, but certainly debatable. I probably should have bolded him with an asterisk Edit: I ultimately decided to bold Stafford but 'unbold' Vick. Again, both buys are highly debatable either way, IMO.
Trading a boatload of picks for anybody is a mistake in the NFL. If you do it for a QB at least when you hit paydirt you got something approximating the value of the picks back. However with very rare exceptions nobody is a lock to be great at the NFL level. The exceptions are easy to see at the time the deal is made. I think both LA and Philly made errors this year but because they erred to take QB's there's a chance one or both teams actually comes out ok in the end.
i agree with your edit, only because stafford has quite a bit more football to play. definitely not terribly consistent, definitely gets hurt by the fact he threw to the best wr in the league for a number of years.
Thirty years is a long time There are missing variables however such as improved coaching of players, being in a pro system, bigger stronger players etc If you look at the last 8 selections you have a chance at 6 out of 8 being really good (75 percent)
The point is though that your percentage of "worthy" QBs taken anywhere else in the draft is going to be a hell of a lot less. So while its of course risky, and not saying anything about this years QBs just in general, if you want a good one, your best chance is to be in the top 3 more often than not. look at our own organization. I think it's safe to say we havent had a top flight franchise QB since Namath (no.1 overall). But we've also never drafted a QB with a top 3 pick since. We've drafted zillions of QBs since then and they've mostly all sucked. The best were 1st round picks- Kenny O, Pennington. The best QBs go early in the draft. as a general statement.
It's an interesting analysis but not having anything to compare it to leaves me feeling empty and cold inside. What are the chances of landing a top QB at any other pick in the entire draft, for example?
Everything is subjective. Even guys that one would consider average starters, e.g. Alex Smith, would have some teams offering up a killing if they were desperate for at least average QB play. If you can land a guy that can be at least an average starting QB for a decade, it's worth it. I would say that, based on your list, you're looking at an at least 50% success rate with respect to landing a starting QB in the top 3. The question than becomes, outside the top 3, what's the success rate? Or an even more accurate assessment would be what's the success rate beyond the top 5 (Eagles case) or top 14 (Rams case). Another way to look at it, is how many long-term starting QBs get produced in the average draft? I don't know the answer, but if we assume 2, how often are they one of the first 2/3/4/5 QBs taken?
Good work Slim. To me, I value recent history more than the picks of 20-30 years ago, as there's been advancements in scouting, technology, and most importantly, 20 years of mistakes to learn from. I also, for me, would bold Bortles, Winston and Mariota (although I do realize it is early). When I look at the recent history, since 2008 there's only been 2 out of 9 that are not worthy of that pick (Bradford and RG3). 7 out of 9 is good enough odds for me to stay at #2 if I'm Cleveland and hope Wentz is the guy. And if he's a dud, just pick another one next year IMO.
the one thing i will mention is that a top 3 qb who was an abject failure would completely hamstring a team for 5 or 6 years. it is much less painful to swing and miss at a qb in the top 3 today than it used to be.
I hear you. Let's take a look at every draft I referenced in my original post, shall we? What I'm going to do is attempt to find at least 1 quarterback who ended up being as good or better than any of the QBs taken in each year's top 3 (listed above). I will then bold all of those names and calculate the percentage of those drafts that had a quarterback as good or better than any QB selected in the top 3, who was available after the top 3 picks. Let's do this: 1986 NFL Draft: Jim Everett (# 3 overall), Mark Rypien (6th round - # 146 overall) (I consider these guys more or less equal) 1987 NFL Draft: Vinny Testaverde (#1 overall), Rich Gannon (4th round - #98 overall), Jim Harbaugh* (#26 overall) (Rich Gannon might be unfair, since he didn't do anything substantial until very late in his career) 1989 NFL Draft: Troy Aikman (#1 overall), no one even close 1990 NFL Draft: Jeff George (#1 overall), Neil O'Donnell (3rd round - #70 overall) (I consider these guys more or less equal - Also, there were several other guys I could have argued for) 1993 NFL Draft: Drew Bledsoe (#1 overall), Mark Brunell (5th round - #118 overall) (There were several other guys I could have argued for) 1994 NFL Draft: Heath Shuler (#3 overall), Trent Dilfer (#6 overall) 1995 NFL Draft: Steve McNair (#3 overall), no one 1998 NFL Draft: Peyton Manning (#1 overall), Ryan Leaf (#2 overall), no one even remotely close to being as good as Peyton 1999 NFL Draft: Tim Couch (#1 overall), Donovan McNaab (#3 overall), Akili Smith (#3 overall), no one even remotely close to being as good as Donovan 2001 NFL Draft: Michael Vick (#1 overall), Drew Brees (2nd round - #32 overall) 2002 NFL Draft: David Carr (#1 overall), Joey Harrington (#3 overall), David Garrard (4th round - #108 overall) 2003 NFL Draft: Carson Palmer (#1 overall), no one 2004 NFL Draft: Eli Manning (#1 overall - via trade), Phillip Rivers (#4 overall), Ben Roethlisberger (#11 overall) 2005 NFL Draft: Alex Smith (#1 overall), Aaron Rodgers (#24 overall) 2006 NFL Draft: Vince Young (#3 overall), Jay Cutler (#11 overall - I'm not a Cutler guy, but hard to argue with this) 2007 NFL Draft: Jamarcus Russell (#1 overall), Kevin Kolb (2nd round - #36 overall - This was a fucking brutal draft for QBs, but again, there are several guys I could have argued for) 2008 NFL Draft: Matt Ryan (#3 overall), the one guy worth mentioning is Flacco (#18 overall), but I"d probably take Ryan over him. 2009 NFL Draft: Mathew Stafford (#1 overall), THE SANCHIZE!!!! (just kidding) 2010 NFL Draft: Sam Bradford (#1 overall), another rough draft class for QBs 2011 NFL Draft: Cam Newton (#1 overall), no one 2012 NFL Draft: Andrew Luck (#1 overall), RG3 (#2 overall), Russell Wilson (3rd round - #75 overall - Even though Luck is better, I felt obligated to at least mention him) So, by my estimate, that makes 11 out of 21 total drafts (52.4%) in which there was a quarterback as good or better than any QB taken in the top 3, who was available after the top 3 picks. In other words, over the last 30 NFL Drafts, 21 of them have had one or more quarterbacks taken in the top 3, and of those 21 drafts, 52.4% of them have had a quarterback as good or better than anyone taken in the top 3, available after the top 3 picks. Think about that. MORE THAN HALF! One additional comment: It is worth noting that this analysis fails to mention many other years in which the guy who eventually ended up being the best QB of the draft class was no where near close to being the first guy picked and no where near close to being a top 3 selection. For example, Brett Favre was the 3rd quarterback taken in the 1991 NFL Draft (2nd round - #33 overall) behind Dan McGwire (#16 overall) and Todd Marinovich (#24 overall). Tom Brady was the 7th quarterback taken in the 2000 NFL Draft (6th round - #199 overall). 7th!!!!! There are many other less extreme examples. And, of course, let's not forget that this is only in the last 30 years. (Joe Montana wasn't drafted until the 3rd round with the #82 overall pick, for example) The point here is that, by limiting the analysis to years in which a QB was selected with one of the top 3 overall picks, it actually makes the draft look like less of a crap-shoot than it actually is. Some of the more egregious examples of the irrefutable worthlessness of pre-draft conventional wisdom occurs in years not listed above.
Agree completely, but how many of them are worth the trade that the Eagles and Rams just made? That is my issue here. More than half of these picks end up being disappointing to some degree, but now we are talking about teams trading a shitload of picks to (more than likely) be disappointed. To me, that's sheer lunacy. I have much less of an issue with using a top 3 pick on a QB and (probably) being disappointed then I do with trading away serious assets to select the same QB and (probably) be disappointed.
Yeah, the trade part is tricky. For me, I only do it for someone I think is a sure-fire guy, like an Andrew Luck. However, I also would have made the trade for RG3, I was a huge fan of his. If it's a guy I'm iffy about (I never liked Bradford, I was iffy on Cam, hated Sanchez) then I dont do it just because everyone else thinks he's good. I'm assuming that's how the Eagles feel about both Goff and Wentz.
Any GM willing to offer what the Rams and/or Eagles just traded away for Alex fucking Smith requires emergency brain surgery. 1) If I am trading away what either the Rams or Eagles just traded away, I want something better than "average starting" QB play for a decade. 2) Either way, the success rate is less than 50%. Even if you include Alex Smith (which, again, I think is absurd), the success rate is only 44%. (Also, several of the bolded guys did not produce for an entire decade) I agree that these are interesting questions, but the more I look at NFL draft history, the more obvious it is that the advantage of taking a QB in the top 2 or 3 is largely a myth. The empirical observations are hard to ignore.
Agree, although i would have never made the trade that Washington made for RG3. But, I also thought Sanchez was going to be a lot better than be ever became. It's such a guessing game. See, I just find what the Eagles did to be idiotic. Since they (presumably) don't even know for sure which guy the Rams are actually picking, they (presumably) must feel equally confident that both quarterbacks are the real deal. But,what are the odds that BOTH Goff and Wentz are going to be studs? I mean, seriously.
the problem with your second argument is that you just picked out the "good player" (in some instances it was a bad player because the top 3 QB sucked) out of the entire rest of the draft. That doesn't even begin to tell the story of the way, way more terrible QBs selected. Your first argument of "you have around a 40% chance of getting a good QB with a top 3 pick" makes sense. That 40% at a good QB is going to be a lot higher than picking anywhere else. Honestly I dont think that figure is all that bad - knowing how important the QB position is in this game. I'd take a 40% chance at finally landing one than a higher percentage for any other position and living with trying to find a QB elsewhere. especially now that it means you would have that "good" QB for cheap with the rookie wage scale. That tips the scales considerably for me because good players at other positions come available in FA all the time. Good QBs almost never.
