So I am on the train reading the paper last night and I see that the Jets are 2 point dogs to the Browns. I thought it was a mistake, but no. They actually started out the week 1 point Dogs. Who is setting the odds for this one? I think the Jets should be at least 3 point favorites. I know it is a road game, but the Browns just fired their OC and are not doing very well this year. I know there is no such thing as an easy game. They will try to beat us, for sure, but we are playing better than them and we should win. What are your thoughts? I think this is a bookie set up.
Jets are two point dogs because the money keeps coming in on the Browns. That's the way it works. The money keeps coming in on the Browns because they were one of those offbeat wildcard favorites in the preseason and nobody can quite figure out what happened to make them so bad through 6 games. With their OC Carthon now fired a lot of bettors are wiping the slate clean and moving them back to that 9-7ish viewpoint for the rest of the season. A 9-7 team would be favored against these Jets at home. I'm pretty sure that's what's happening at this point. I expect the line to be 2.5 or 3 points given by the Browns by kickoff time.
How about because the Browns are home, every game the Jets have won has come down to virtually the last play, the Jags beat the Jets by over 40 in the Jets' last road game and the Jet defense is among the worst in the NFL. Other than those few things, I can't understand the spread either.
The home team always gets 3 points for being home. So technically we are 1 point favorites, but since they are at home they get the 3 point swing.
The Browns are injured as well. Starting with a new offensive coordinator. Defense isn't that great. I say Chad Pennington leads the team to its 5th victory of the season. After that, the Jets go to New England for a NIGHT game Or not.. :up:
How can they be favored? We've beaten 4 of the worst teams in the league,5 combined wins), our defense can't stop my grandma and we're on the road in what is usually a pretty hostile crowd. Add to that that the Jets have been patting themselves on the back for how good they are for the last two weeks and I can see a recipe for disaster.
That is correct the home team automatically starts out as 3 point fav's...so the jets are basically fav's to win
Hmmm...maybe its late...but I dont get this "the home team automatically gets 3 points" stuff. Theres much more to it than that. Some teams are very good at home even when their team is poor. I dont think its this automatic 3 point stamp. The Raiders during their better days probably got more than 3 points for being home..the Chiefs too. There is more to this spread than meets the eye. If the Jets were home..they wouldnt be a 3 point favorite. It would be more than that. They know what they are doing..and quite honestly...I dont get it either. I would stick away from this one...and just root!
Who the hell knows. A 4-3 team should be favored over a 1-5 team, period, no matter where it's played. And who did the browns beat? The raiders, who know's how the hell they are favored.
That is not true. The line is determined by many factors. If a team is getting the majority of wagers they move the line such that the book maker will be most protected. Then there is strength of schedule, which can play a significant factor. Their division is 10 times tougher. Then there are numerous trends and such that can effect the line. Most of which I do not pretend to know for this game. However, last time they played a non divisional foe on the road for example, they got trounced. So it is a myriad of things that can effect the line. Look lets face it the Jets are 4-3 and have exceeded expectations. But are they a good team right now? I do not know. I still think they are a middle of the road team improving on a weekly basis, with an extraordinarily weak schedule. However, They are very well coached IMO. They just had an exceptional draft class that looks like it can be one of the better one the Jets have ever produced. So we do have a lot to look forward too, an awful lot imho. However we are just not there yet........ That being said: So really underdog or favorite here means little. I can understand how they are not favored.
Points Scored and Allowed Hmm.... If you just look at the Jet's points scored this season (147) and points allowed (173) and divide by the number of games played, they lose their average game by 4 points. Cleveland (88 points scored, 126 against) loses their average game by 6 points. Thus, on an average day on a neutral site, one might guess the Jets win by 2 points. If one gives the home team 3 points, the Browns, on average, would win by one. Yes, I know, this is a very crude way of handicapping teams. Las Vegas ought to be using a far more sophisticated scheme that takes in strength of schedule. I took the above numbers from one of my own spreadsheets which looks at wins and losses as well as points scored and allowed. But the Jets as underdogs isn't all that far fetched. It depends on what numbers you look at. But I personally don't believe it, either. I'm a Patriots guy. I'm expecting the Jets to play hard and win in the Dog Pound. I expect to see your team in Foxboro in a few weeks, still hungry and a bit desperate.
I run a football pool at work and everyone thought I screwed up the line on this game. People were arguing about it for a good long while. The money aside, theres no excuse for the Browns to be favored. We are healthy, have a much better record, and none of our coaches just got fired. That said I hope Jets players see that line and get fired up over it. A team that feels like it has something to prove is a team to be reckoned with.
In all this "strength of schedule" crap, everyone is forgetting one thing - The Colts are 6-0... we BASICALLY BEAT the Colts... if it weren't for that complete PHANTOM PI call down the stretch, we would have... so you can just as easily count that one as a win when determining SOS... Its not like the Colts owned us... we got dominated by one team... JAX... that's it... NE and JAX would have also beaten Cleveland... I think Cleve and it's -10 turnover ratio is in for a rude awakening... especially since we have a newly established running game with LJ... I predict Jets by 10...
