2016 and beyond

This is not a doom and gloom thread, I expect the Jets at this point to be a playoff team barring injury to certain key players (Ivory for example, if he goes down this team is probably hosed if it's for any length of time, the offense is very dependent on him).

No rather this thread is about how the Jets can build on and continue this current direction and not be a one or two year wonder team.

The single biggest issue the Jets face next year is their Salary cap. right now the Jets have 37 players under contract for 2016 and only a little under 9M in cap space projected for next year, though there likely will be a cap space increase next year. Now granted there are things you can do to increase cap space, cut players, trade players, restructure, etc...Normally this isn't an issue, but here's the problem. The Jets have several key players who are free agents who are not part of the projected salary base because they're not under contract and a couple of them are due VERY big raises.
Key players who are Free agents next year and not currently counted against the 2016 salary cap.
(players with a + are going to get probably substantially more money than they were this year).

Ivory + He's the current key to the offense, the passing game is built off the play action and teams fearing the Jets running game. If he keeps performing to his current level he's likely to get 6-8 million in the market,

Big MO, + Now technically Big MO is a top 10, arguably top 5, DE in the league. He's not going to get JJ Watt money from the Jets or anyone else, but he will probably be in the 11-12M area on the market. Not saying that's what he's worth to the Jets but he's not going to stay with the Jets for 8M when he can get 11-12 on the market.
The Jets are blessed with a great DL, arguably one of the bet in the NFL if not he best, and having Leonard Williams potentially decreases the need but we're not sure he's absolutely going to pan out, but it's looking good, plus there is the fact that Richardson has shown signs of bad off the field decisions so you can't be 100% certain that he's not going to face suspensions from time to time for those off the field decisions.
Wilkerson is one of the keys to the current elite defense and his deal alone would put the Jets in negative cap space and still need 13 players to fill the roster.

Which brings us to the next current key player, Snacks He's a UFA next season and thus not counted on the Salary cap for 2016. Snacks is an elite run stuffer who will likely get 4-5 million next year, maybe a little more, fortunately 3-4 DT's aren't a high paid group of players. But if Bowles wants to run a more or less standard 3-4 defense front at times he's a necessity.

Other Key players, or current starters, who are free agents next season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets currently have no one to absolutely start next season, But it's expected to be an open competition again next year. As such he, or another veteran starter, won't be a bank breaker, but it's still 3-5 million that's not on the current 2016 cap count and unless you want to go in to 2016 with either Geno or Petty as the starter without actually earning it over a veteran it's money that will need to be spent.

Willie colon, He's not a key player but he is the current starting Right guard. Will one of the kids be readfor 2016 right guard? will we draft one? will we sign another vet? It's not a key resigning but it is a lost starter who isn't under contract for 2016.

Demario Davis, he's not elite but he is a current starter at what is our weakest position on defense, LB. He'll need to be resigned or replaced either way that's probably another 4-7 million for a decent replacement or resigning. This year isn't really strong draft for ILB's IMHO.

Then we have Calvin Pace, who of the defensive players is the most replaceable, but he's still a starter who will need to be replaced...this is one of the most replaceable positions on the defense through the draft.

Those are the current starters who are not counted against the 2016 cap. As you can see to bring even a few of those key players back puts the Jets deeply in the red on CAP space and still would leave 10 or so roster spots to be filled.

There are of course a number of valuable depth and rotation players who will be free agents next year.
Douzable, Lattimore, Powell, Walls, Jarrett, Allen, Sudfield and our punter Quigley. All of these guys are more or less replaceable and relatively in expensive but they're guys you do need competent replacements for since they are rotational players and key backups.

Next part will be players who can be cut, restructured or traded to create cap space.

 

RE #6, can't trade Wilkerson after the end of this season, he won't be under contract and you can't trade a player who isn't under contract. He could be traded during the season but I dont' see that happening as long as the Jets are in the running or the playoffs. If the Jets don't resign him or trade him mid season the best they'll get is a comp pick in 2017.

 

I'm not discarding this season, I'm enjoying it. But I always think in longer term pictures.

 

Continuing onward.
Places where money can be 'saved'.
I'm just going to go through every player under contract from High to low.
Revis, you can't cut him (not that you'd want to mind you) because of the massive cap hit (23 million in dead money) so even if you wanted to there is no potential savings there and the way his contract is set up there's not much room for restructuring in any significant way.

Ferguson. he's no longer an elite left tackle, at this point he's pretty average skill wise in pass protection. Cutting him gives 5M in dead money but saves just over 9M in cap space (he's just over 14M cap hit in 2016). I'd hate to lose Ferguson until the Jet find a new LT but they can't keep him at a 14M cap hit. Best bet is a restructure that lowers his cap hit from 14M to around 7-8M that would be a 6-7M savings. But if he's not willing to restructure the Jets almost have to cut him.

Brandon Marshall. He has been, and it's not even close, the Jets most productive receiver. He's currently a 9.5M cap figure, which is expensive. He could be cut for a 9.5M cap savings but the Jets would be losing their best receiver. Ideal scenario the Jets give him a 2-3 year extension with good guaranteed money but a lower per year cap hit in the 6-7M range. I don't know if he'd bite but worth a shot. Jets if they want to have an offense can not just cut him at this point.

Mangold. He's still one of the best centers in the NFL, if not the best. The Jets will need to start looking for a replacement at some point but, barring injury, that's a couple seasons away. His 8.6M cap hit is somewhat expensive, but he is the best at his position and the Jets OL needs him. He has no guaranteed money left on his contract (which runs through the 2017 season) so they might be able to renegotiate and extend his contract a year by adding some guaranteed money to 2017 and maybe 2018. But n reality that would probably only net a 1-2M cap savings, but every penny (million?) counts at this point.

Cromartie. He can be cut for an 8M savings, but Bowles loves his DB's, I could see the Jets restructuring his contract a little and saving 2 or 3M in cap space. If he doesn't want to restructure they can cut him, I just don't see how they can accommodate his 8M, he's not an elite or top 15 corner at this point.

Decker, like Marshall the Jets really can't afford to cut him. He's an 8M cap hit in 2016 and cutting him only saves 3.5M and you're not going to replace him for under 5M so might as well keep him.

Coples may or may not be gone next year, my bet is gone, but if he's not gone he won't be staying for anywhere near his current 7.7M payday. Jets can cut him and save the full 7.7.

Skrine is with the jets next year regardless, like Revis you actually lose cap space by cutting or trading him.

David Harris. For better or for worse Harris is a Jet next year. There is no cap savings at all in cutting him the full 7.5M next year is fully guaranteed so any team you might hope to trade him to would have to take the 7.5 salary...I don't see that happening.
No savings for harris.

Gilchrist, the Jets can save 3.75M in cap space cutting him, but he's also been probably the Jets most consistent safety and you definitely could not replace him for the 2M difference in his current cap vs what would be saved.

Carpenter could be cut, but he's been our best O-linemen outside of Mangold at 5.7m M he's a relaive bargain.

Giocamani, The jets could save almost 4M cutting him but do they have a RT to take over?

Dee Milliner, as disappointing as he's been there are no cap benefits to cutting him, it's a zero balance.

Nick Folk, could save around 2.1M but unless you're planning on drafting Aguayo you'd be hard pressed to replace him

Kerley is pretty clearly on his way out. Net savings is about 1.3 M if he's cut or traded.

Jeff Cumberland. I'd say cut him, but the Jets are so thin at TE (sudfield is a FA in 2016) that the Jets really can't afford to trade him but he would be a 1.9M savings, but he'd have to be replaced and even at league minimum the replacements would mean the Jets were only saving around 1M.

The Jets could cut Geno and save almost 1.1M, but he'd have to be replaced by someone and that would negate any cap savings, unless you only wanted to go with two QB's one of which who had never taken an NFL snap.

That's really the end of players who represent ccap savings. Anyone else is under 1M in salary and since they'd have to be replaced on the roster with someone else probably making close to that there's really no savings in those players staying or going. The list of places to save is pretty short.