Happens every year, tons of hype for all of the playoff teams, yet usually at least 5 of them miss it (I believe last year was the first time in 15 years in which 5 didnt miss it). So my nominations will be: Cincinnati Bengals Kansas City Chiefs Carolina Panthers San Francisco 49ers The 5th one I am really not sure about, I think I am going to go with the Philadelphia Eagles but still undecided.
I agree with all but Cincy, the others have made drastic changes to one or more of their positions whether it be from injury or free agency. KC's entire offensive line is basically gone and they really shouldn't have even made the playoffs last year. They weren't 11-5 good. The Panthers lost their top 3-4 options at WR and their entire secondary is new, major concerns along with OL with retirements and position changes. Cam didn't look fully healthy last night against NE. SF has the injury/suspension bug pretty bad all over its defense, standout guard holding out and may play for a new team, tons of change among the corner position, not for the better IMO. If we're naming 5, I'm not exactly sure who else to add. SD will either be a lot better or a lot worse, who knows, that team is so weird. Philly hasn't changed too much, they got rid of a great looking RB and picked up another, DJax loss will hurt them a lot more than they admit in media, but they also got Maclin back, who is pretty good if healthy. I'm not going to say I think Denver misses the playoffs, but I think they're a lot worse than last year. Decker may not be a #1, but he's an above average #2 and he's now a Jet, his replacement, Sanders, is barely a 3. He's been given every opportunity to shine in Pitt and never took off with it, they were right to let him walk. They lost a major player along the OL and another is returning from missing the entire season due to a major injury, they traded a soft corner for an often injured corner and their #2 from last year is recovering from ACL repair surgery, as is their best defensive player, Von Miller. Their star RB from last season is on a new team. TJ Ward is overrated and is pretty bad in coverage, but D. Ware did look fantastic so far, looks fully recovered from injury. Manning will need to throw 55 more touchdown passes this year for that team to continue winning, I think the defense, which was already weak last year, will continue to be weak with several key players recovering from major surgeries, and to top it off they are going from one of the NFL's easiest schedules last season to facing the brutal NFC West defenses this year.
I picked Cincy because I am not a Lewis fan, I think they have a good roster, but they lost both the defensive coordinator and offensive coordinator which is a significant shakeup imo. It might be for the better, but it could be for the worse.
I am also conflicted, I want to remove the Eagles but I believe in what they are doing. Perhaps the Green Bay Packers or the New Orleans Saints miss out on the playoffs? I agree Denver takes a step back, the offense will not be as productive, its just to much to ask for. I think the AFC in general is better though, it has been down since 2010 but I think its going to be pretty competitive again. No team is getting a free ride to the championship game next year, I can assure you that.
You and this author and many others share the same teams: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nfl-regression-which-teams-will-disappoint/ And I agree with the author, I've been picking SF as a regressing team for a couple years and they have bucked the trend every time. Someone on this list is probably not regressing, but I'm not sure who. They are all almost too obvious choices.
My most likely Panthers Chiefs Chargers Because I have to pick two more... Colts Saints Falcons bounce back)
I'm going with Chiefs and Niners. IMO neither one makes the playoffs. Chiefs lost too much personnel and have a much harder schedule. No chance they repeat last year's performance. I think the Lions or Bears will edge in the playoffs over the Niners.
I am not admitting I am wrong just yet, I posted this in another thread but week 5 the Bengals go to New England, have a bye week to prepare while New England has a MNF game the week before. Its set up perfectly for the Bengals to go into New England and get a win, whether it be a blowout or a last second FG. They need to prove something that night. (They handled New England last year but I want to see them do it again, on the road).
Two weeks into the season: KC is bad. I'm wrong on the Panthers defense being greatly effected, they still look good even without Hardy, but the offense is still up in the air. SF blew a gigantic by being unable to cover a pair of corners who weren't even sure they were healthy enough to play - not a good look. SD, well, they looked amazing against Seattle and had a dud against Arizona, who we're not sure is good or bad yet. This team has always defined playing to the level of your competition, for better or for worse. Denver - Peyton Manning sure is trying to throw 55 more touchdowns in order to keep winning, they needed it against a poor Chiefs team who was let back into the game because of Denvers not so much improved defense that everyone raved about. Emmanuel Sanders out performing Thomas and Decker so far, who saw that coming? Julias Thomas also looks to have progressed from his breakout season, which is definitely a scary thought, he looks to have already passed the Gates/Gonzalez territory and is probably there with Davis, kicking on the doorstep of the Gronk/Graham category. He's good. Peyton still also looks to have the weakest arm in the NFL by a mile, I don't know how he fits it into coverage, it's impressive because every ball if flying sideways. He only passes downfield with receivers open by 5 steps, which is kind of pathetic, but he knows his limitations. The league still isn't calling penalties on Denver's pick plays though, go figure. I'd say my predictions are 3 out of 5, with Denver and Carolina not cooperating with me in their regression. Edit: I'm speaking of regression, not missing the playoffs, kind of off topic for the thread but it's also very possible that every team I named outside of Denver DOES miss the playoffs, so theres that.
The bottom line though here is I am not going to overreact to 2 weeks. The Panthers and Bengals still have a ways to go. Ill wait another 2 weeks before I really evaluate the state of these teams. Even 4 weeks isnt enough but 2 weeks surely isnt.
Well they did win 11 games, but the got knocked out of the Wild Card round pretty handily. If they won 9 games this year and still advanced to the AFCC, would you think they had regressed?
Let them win in New England, if they cant then they are still the bungles. New England looks vulnerable as hell right now, with Cincys defense they should be able to shut down Brady, offensively beat the Pats defenses. No excuses, they have 14 days to prepare, New England has 6, prove something Cincy.
