ESPN Insider KC Joyner: Why Jets can make playoffs

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by Doogstein, Sep 27, 2013.

  1. KWJetsFan

    KWJetsFan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2010
    Messages:
    14,058
    Likes Received:
    4,586
    As a fan, you should do some research on Jets history. Not being a dick, it just puts things in perspective. '86 is one of the most painful Jets years ever.

    The Pats actually won the division after we started 10-1 (we finished 10-6). Mostly, that was due to being decimated with injuries. We had a 9 game win streak, followed by a 5 game losing streak to end the year. We then went to the playoffs and crushed the Chiefs in the WC. We had the Browns dead to rights in the AFC Divisional round. I'll never forget Charlie Steiner doing play by play: "The Jets are going to the AFC Championship Game!!" We choked away a 10 point lead with 5 minutes left due to a Mark Gastineau late hit. We then went on to lose in 2 OT's when Joe Walton reinvented "conservative" during the OT's.

    Sadly, we had wrecked Denver who we would have played in the AFC title game in the regular season (22-10).

    Fuck that year.
     
  2. Don

    Don 2008 TGG Rich Kotite "Least Knowledgeable" Award W

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2007
    Messages:
    23,098
    Likes Received:
    1,588
    Yeah, this is a winnable game. The Titans are going to run the ball all day long and the Jets have been very good against the run so far this year. If the Titans go to the air it will probably be a disaster for them.
     
  3. chris5533

    chris5533 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 31, 2003
    Messages:
    1,775
    Likes Received:
    255
    Well see what happens with idzik plan. he didn't gamble on winslow and colon. He's taking the cheapest possible options to fill holes. I think after 3 games he doesn't deserve credit yet. I'm fully aware he inherited cap he'll with the jets. He's unproven and the success to this point is a direct result of what Rex has done.

    Milner hasn't been good(will be)
    Smith has huge potential but he's been bad.
    Richardson has been good.

    How you can say idzik is doing a good job 3 games in makes no sense to me
     
  4. Petrozza

    Petrozza Administrator

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2002
    Messages:
    14,343
    Likes Received:
    4,159
    ESPN Insider KC Joyner - Why Jets can make playoffs

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story...-make-playoffsNew York Jets fans have a long history of being jaded when it comes to good starts by their team. This is a natural side effect of seeing campaigns like the 1986 season (started 10-1, didn't win division, lost in AFC divisional playoffs), 2000 season (started 6-1, missed playoffs) and 2008 season (began 8-3 and arguably looked like the best team in the NFL, missed playoffs).That kind of track record is part of why Gang Green fans may be only cautiously optimistic about the team's 2-1 start in 2013. A rookie quarterback and a dismal recent history may be other reasons. But fans actually should be excited for their team's prospects. A detailed tape and metrics analysis indicates this team is building the foundation for a club that could be a postseason contender -- not just in the near future, but right now.This support starts with a defense that leads the league in yards per play (4.1) and has some incredible numbers against the run and the pass.There are many contenders for New York's most impressive defensive aerial stat -- the 6.0 overall yards per attempt, 7.2 vertical YPA (productivity on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and 6.4 stretch vertical YPA (production on attempts 20 or more yards downfield) being among the best of the bunch. For perspective, consider that these figures are appreciably better than the topflight numbers New York posted in these categories last year (6.5 overall YPA, ranked sixth; 8.7 VYPA, ranked second; 9.0 SVYPA, ranked third).As great as those numbers are, there are two important areas where the Jets pass defense can, and almost certainly will, get better at as the season progresses.First is Antonio Cromartie's coverage metrics. His 7.5 YPA allowed is a solid number but is appreciably higher than his 5.9 YPA in 2012 that ranked tied for ninth in the league. Cromartie still has shutdown cornerback capabilities and should be able to bring this metric back to its former level.Second is New York's 0.9 percent in the bad decision rate metric, which gauges how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the defense. Rex Ryan doesn't build his game plan entirely around generating a high BDR the way Dom Capers does, but his defenses historically have been in the 2-2.5 percent mark at season's end. If this platoon's BDR moves up toward that level through the rest of the season and keeps its various YPA marks at or near their current levels, the Jets will be a strong contender for the best pass defense in the NFL.Their run defense is nearly as strong, as the Jets rank sixth in rushing yards allowed (79.7 per game) and third in rush yards per attempt (3.2). Two key factors are their marks in the good blocking rate and good blocking yards per attempt metrics.GBR measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers good blocking, which is roughly defined as not allowing the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt. A 50 percent mark is a topflight total from an offensive perspective, a 45 percent mark is average, and anything below 40 percent is considered bad for an offense -- so the Jets defense's 37.6 percent GBR shows just how disruptive it is to opposing offensive lines. That's a nice feather in the defense's cap.GBYPA gauges how productive a runner is on plays with good blocking. Anything below the 6.0-yard mark is quite an achievement for a defense, and the Jets can currently boast a 5.8-yard total.These run defense showings are even more notable considering New York's first three games featured matchups against Doug Martin, Stevan Ridley and C.J. Spiller, three of the top running backs in the NFL today.Meanwhile, the Jets have taken a lot of grief for how they have dealt with their offensive passing game personnel over the past few years, but there are multiple signs indicating the offense is trending in the right direction.The first sign is the development of quarterback Geno Smith. His 331 passing yards last week were the second-most passing yards ever by a Jets rookie (Ken O'Brien with 351 in 1984).Smith did this in large part by bringing back the vertical game. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Smith has nine completions of at least 20 yards downfield in his last two games, completing at least four such passes in each. By contrast, former starter Mark Sanchez had one game with four completions of 20-plus yards downfield in his career.The rookie quarterback has combined this downfield passing prowess with superb decision-making. His 1.8 percent BDR is a huge improvement over Sanchez's 3.1 percent BDR last season (ranked tied for 35th) and, if Smith kept it in that area, would project as a top-10 mark by season's end. To be fair, Smith's numbers are through only three games, but he posted a 1.8 percent BDR at West Virginia last year, so he has a history of effectively protecting the ball.Wide receiver Stephen Hill has done a superb job of assisting Smith in the long pass department. Hill has notched a ridiculously high 20.4 VYPA on 10 targets and a 23.5 SVYPA on eight targets. This does not look to be an anomaly, since Hill posted excellent numbers in his senior collegiate season that led him to rank first in my analysis of the top 10 wide receivers in the 2012 NFL draft.He finished first among that group in YPA, height and 40-yard dash time and finished second in VYPA, all of which led to the article's conclusion that "there is every reason to think that Hill could be just as explosive as Georgia Tech predecessor Demaryius Thomas has been." That wasn't the case with Sanchez under center, but it seems to be so with Smith.Hill has had four vertical passes gain 30-plus yards this season, including one over each of New England's starting cornerbacks. The Jets' offensive issues dovetailed with letting their dominant vertical threat, Braylon Edwards, walk away a couple of seasons ago, but Hill could provide the same utility for this offense in the future.With this caliber of offensive and defensive weaponry, the Jets have a chance to make the postseason. New York does have a difficult schedule with its share of tough road battles (Atlanta, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Miami) and hard home matchups (New England, New Orleans, Miami), but if it wins three of those seven and four of its other games (at Tennessee, vs. Pittsburgh, at Buffalo, vs. Oakland, at Carolina, vs. Cleveland), that would equal nine wins. That is a victory total that may be good enough to make it to the postseason.Even if the Jets fall short of this year's playoffs, they seem to be building a foundation for playoff contention for the next few years.More...More...

    More...
     
  5. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady, 21018 Funniest Member Award Winner

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2003
    Messages:
    52,999
    Likes Received:
    25,072
    You know what? I was taking a dump when I trashed your previous post, and since I ate some jalapenos last night, it was an angry shit. That was probably the wrong reaction.

    But I get your take. People sold out for Tanny too early and the guy's long term plan was a short term plan. It worked short term and blew up in his face.

    Idzik is showing a long term plan, and it is too soon to sell out and say it's working. Half a season is too soon.

    I think there are signs that he is doing well, but let's wait a couple of seasons. He's a long term guy. Half a season isn't even close to a glimpse of whether or not he is a success.

    Apologies.
     
  6. jetsclaps

    jetsclaps Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2010
    Messages:
    1,568
    Likes Received:
    982
    With that logic no GM deserves any credit in the NFL.
     
  7. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2010
    Messages:
    5,383
    Likes Received:
    7,441
    Some of the bad:

    Not resigning Slausson when he took the vet minimum and wanted to stay was a mind boggling decision. Same goes to a lesser extent not resigning Moore. Signing Garrard was a huge risk that almost left us with Sanchez again as QB. Goodson is a decision that so far has not worked out. To a lesser extent the same can be said for Ivory.

    Not the rosiest beginning for Idzik.

    I did like the draft and the emphasis on building the lines 1st similar to Seattle. I also like the quiet no nonsense demeanor. I love his approach trying to maximize picks next year by letting FAs walk and taking the comp picks next year. I like his long term approach over reaching for short term high profile players. I suspect he will have a problem resisting Woody's desire to make headlines in the future.

    Overall I really like Idzik but one cannot ignore the bad and say he has not had some rough moments already.
     
  8. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady, 21018 Funniest Member Award Winner

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2003
    Messages:
    52,999
    Likes Received:
    25,072
    What is wrong with not being sold on a GM 3 games into his first season????

    He has done a decent job in the short term. The job of a new GM is not the fucking short term.
     
  9. The 1985er

    The 1985er Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2011
    Messages:
    9,070
    Likes Received:
    1,054
    I'm in wait and see mode. I'm not getting too high or too low right now. I'm cautiously optimistic.
     
  10. Don

    Don 2008 TGG Rich Kotite "Least Knowledgeable" Award W

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2007
    Messages:
    23,098
    Likes Received:
    1,588
    After having lived with Tannenbaum for years that is probably a good approach. Half the people on this site (although they would never admit it now and I am not one of them) absolutely loved Tannenbaum..I am sure you could go back a few years and dig of the threads to prove it.
     
  11. The 1985er

    The 1985er Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2011
    Messages:
    9,070
    Likes Received:
    1,054
    I liked him too and I still think he was a good GM. But a few miscalculations cost him his job.
     
  12. Petrozza

    Petrozza Administrator

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2002
    Messages:
    14,343
    Likes Received:
    4,159
    ESPN Insider KC Joyner - Why Jets can make playoffs

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story...-make-playoffsNew York Jets fans have a long history of being jaded when it comes to good starts by their team. This is a natural side effect of seeing campaigns like the 1986 season (started 10-1, didn't win division, lost in AFC divisional playoffs), 2000 season (started 6-1, missed playoffs) and 2008 season (began 8-3 and arguably looked like the best team in the NFL, missed playoffs).That kind of track record is part of why Gang Green fans may be only cautiously optimistic about the team's 2-1 start in 2013. A rookie quarterback and a dismal recent history may be other reasons. But fans actually should be excited for their team's prospects. A detailed tape and metrics analysis indicates this team is building the foundation for a club that could be a postseason contender -- not just in the near future, but right now.This support starts with a defense that leads the league in yards per play (4.1) and has some incredible numbers against the run and the pass.There are many contenders for New York's most impressive defensive aerial stat -- the 6.0 overall yards per attempt, 7.2 vertical YPA (productivity on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and 6.4 stretch vertical YPA (production on attempts 20 or more yards downfield) being among the best of the bunch. For perspective, consider that these figures are appreciably better than the topflight numbers New York posted in these categories last year (6.5 overall YPA, ranked sixth; 8.7 VYPA, ranked second; 9.0 SVYPA, ranked third).As great as those numbers are, there are two important areas where the Jets pass defense can, and almost certainly will, get better at as the season progresses.First is Antonio Cromartie's coverage metrics. His 7.5 YPA allowed is a solid number but is appreciably higher than his 5.9 YPA in 2012 that ranked tied for ninth in the league. Cromartie still has shutdown cornerback capabilities and should be able to bring this metric back to its former level.Second is New York's 0.9 percent in the bad decision rate metric, which gauges how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the defense. Rex Ryan doesn't build his game plan entirely around generating a high BDR the way Dom Capers does, but his defenses historically have been in the 2-2.5 percent mark at season's end. If this platoon's BDR moves up toward that level through the rest of the season and keeps its various YPA marks at or near their current levels, the Jets will be a strong contender for the best pass defense in the NFL.Their run defense is nearly as strong, as the Jets rank sixth in rushing yards allowed (79.7 per game) and third in rush yards per attempt (3.2). Two key factors are their marks in the good blocking rate and good blocking yards per attempt metrics.GBR measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers good blocking, which is roughly defined as not allowing the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt. A 50 percent mark is a topflight total from an offensive perspective, a 45 percent mark is average, and anything below 40 percent is considered bad for an offense -- so the Jets defense's 37.6 percent GBR shows just how disruptive it is to opposing offensive lines. That's a nice feather in the defense's cap.GBYPA gauges how productive a runner is on plays with good blocking. Anything below the 6.0-yard mark is quite an achievement for a defense, and the Jets can currently boast a 5.8-yard total.These run defense showings are even more notable considering New York's first three games featured matchups against Doug Martin, Stevan Ridley and C.J. Spiller, three of the top running backs in the NFL today.Meanwhile, the Jets have taken a lot of grief for how they have dealt with their offensive passing game personnel over the past few years, but there are multiple signs indicating the offense is trending in the right direction.The first sign is the development of quarterback Geno Smith. His 331 passing yards last week were the second-most passing yards ever by a Jets rookie (Ken O'Brien with 351 in 1984).Smith did this in large part by bringing back the vertical game. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Smith has nine completions of at least 20 yards downfield in his last two games, completing at least four such passes in each. By contrast, former starter Mark Sanchez had one game with four completions of 20-plus yards downfield in his career.The rookie quarterback has combined this downfield passing prowess with superb decision-making. His 1.8 percent BDR is a huge improvement over Sanchez's 3.1 percent BDR last season (ranked tied for 35th) and, if Smith kept it in that area, would project as a top-10 mark by season's end. To be fair, Smith's numbers are through only three games, but he posted a 1.8 percent BDR at West Virginia last year, so he has a history of effectively protecting the ball.Wide receiver Stephen Hill has done a superb job of assisting Smith in the long pass department. Hill has notched a ridiculously high 20.4 VYPA on 10 targets and a 23.5 SVYPA on eight targets. This does not look to be an anomaly, since Hill posted excellent numbers in his senior collegiate season that led him to rank first in my analysis of the top 10 wide receivers in the 2012 NFL draft.He finished first among that group in YPA, height and 40-yard dash time and finished second in VYPA, all of which led to the article's conclusion that "there is every reason to think that Hill could be just as explosive as Georgia Tech predecessor Demaryius Thomas has been." That wasn't the case with Sanchez under center, but it seems to be so with Smith.Hill has had four vertical passes gain 30-plus yards this season, including one over each of New England's starting cornerbacks. The Jets' offensive issues dovetailed with letting their dominant vertical threat, Braylon Edwards, walk away a couple of seasons ago, but Hill could provide the same utility for this offense in the future.With this caliber of offensive and defensive weaponry, the Jets have a chance to make the postseason. New York does have a difficult schedule with its share of tough road battles (Atlanta, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Miami) and hard home matchups (New England, New Orleans, Miami), but if it wins three of those seven and four of its other games (at Tennessee, vs. Pittsburgh, at Buffalo, vs. Oakland, at Carolina, vs. Cleveland), that would equal nine wins. That is a victory total that may be good enough to make it to the postseason.Even if the Jets fall short of this year's playoffs, they seem to be building a foundation for playoff contention for the next few years.More...More...More...

    More...
     
  13. Pluvrr

    Pluvrr Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2010
    Messages:
    1,468
    Likes Received:
    2
    I agree with this.
     
  14. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2005
    Messages:
    15,221
    Likes Received:
    6,088
    As surprising as the Jets have played this year so far, there's nothing but upside for the season:

    1- Geno growing as a rookie QB, getting better each week, cutting down in ints
    2- Team cutting down on penalties
    3- Running game getting back and healthy
    4- Milliner getting Kyle off the field

    There's just a lot of reasons to see how the Jets continue to get better throughout the season.
     
  15. Intoddwetrust

    Intoddwetrust New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2012
    Messages:
    77
    Likes Received:
    0
    Really. Idzik does not get any credit? Come on he's been killed from the day he got here and now that his draft is looking really good he gets no credit. Geno Smith, Richardson, Bohanan, Millner, Winters, are all playing already. Barnes is looking like a really good free agent pick up and we have gone from Cap Hell to be talking we might be 30-40 million under cap next year.
    No your right he deserves no credit at all.
     
  16. Intoddwetrust

    Intoddwetrust New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2012
    Messages:
    77
    Likes Received:
    0
    Tannenbaum's legacy is trending up lately though- Wilkerson, Kerley, Snacks, Wall, Coples, Davis, Ellis, Cromartie, all tannenbaum guys. Last draft looking pretty good.
     
  17. Falco21

    Falco21 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2011
    Messages:
    13,631
    Likes Received:
    10,895
    Bingo!!

    You people shitting on Idzik are the same type of fans no one wants around.
     
  18. Intoddwetrust

    Intoddwetrust New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2012
    Messages:
    77
    Likes Received:
    0
    Colon, Kellen Winslow, Barnes, - are looking like great cheap pick ups. Slausen was trending downwards come on. Austin Howard gets better week to week and I feel Duccasse is getting better.
    I don't understand how a guy has 7 draft picks make the team. Has us primed for a big offseason with plenty of money in his first year has not done a good job.

    I hope Rex gets to about 5 and 2 and gets an extension.

    I also feel if we got too 4 and 1 or God Forbid 5 and 1 we pull the trigger on releasing Sanchez. I think it would be boost to Geno Smiths Confidence and a bolster to the team if done at the right time

    Idzik has done a really good job
     
  19. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 2018 Thread of the Year Award Winner

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    22,232
    Likes Received:
    12,246
    Media needs to hop off the Jets dick.

    But anything is possible. The defense is there, the offense is getting yards but we need to be more disciplined and get into the endzone more.
     
  20. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady, 21018 Funniest Member Award Winner

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2003
    Messages:
    52,999
    Likes Received:
    25,072
    They are all short term returns at this point, but he deserves credit for bringing them in.

    It's not that he deserves no credit. It's that he is building for the future and this is the present.

    No reason to be sold. Until the long term returns come in.

    I think he has done a good job for the short term.
     

Share This Page