I know this won't be popular, but for the first time since we picked Gholston, I think we should trade down. Unfortunately, we are in no man's land in this draft. I know the front office has been saying they will take the BPA, but they have no track record of doing that regardless of need. We don't have the ammo to move up and quite frankly, depth has become an issue especially at DB and OL. If Decastro is there, I would reconsider but trading down is a far better option to me than gambling on Mercilus, Upshaw or an early WR. I know many here like Upshaw, but I'm just not a fan. I watched as many games of his as I could and kept coming up with the same assessment, not an impact player at the next level. He may have been the 3rd or 4th best player on his own D. He was rarely doubled and on many plays seemed a 1/2 step late in getting there.The problem is that OLB in the 3-4 is a defensive glamour position, especially compared to Safety or ILB. Mercilus is a one year wonder(see Gholston), that will have problems transitioning to 3-4 OLB. No thanks, been there already. So who would I target? Try to trade down to the early 20's and go after Chandler Jones, Mclellin or WR Stephen Hill. All three are elite athletes with tremendous work ethics and were under the radar. We can get some extra picks to address the problem of depth and also get an impact player. Rex and T need to have a solid draft, not a headline, this is the path they should take.
I don't think Tannenbaum has ever traded down in his life...I doubt he starts now especially with 10 picks available..last thing he wants to do is worry about signing 10 different players.
I think that you'll find this to actually be w very popular opinion. Trading down into the 20s would give the jets a player they'd probably really consider at 16 and a valuable day 2 pick.
I'm not opposed to trading down. Admittedly, I believe in quality over quantity. You have to have a partner and you have to have a player in place that you know you will get. Every team says that will take the BPA, but the fact is the draft is need driven. "BPA" is lip service for the media. The key to the draft is be prepared to go either way and then have the conviction to do it. The Jets have needs,just like the Packers, the Pats, Giants and everyone else. Let's get a good player, that's the goal.
There's a microscope on the Jets going into the draft. They haven't drafted a great player since Eric Mangini's second season. That's a lifetime ago in NFL terms. My best guess is that if they see somebody sitting there on 16 that they like they'll just grab him. The wildcard is whether or not they can sit still that long. Huge pressure to have a good draft may well translate into a couple of trade-ups before round 3 is complete and only 7 people or so taken overall.
I think best case I that Decastro is there. The Jets will have to take him or trade the pick, but they can't pass on him I they are taking BPA.
I think our best option for trading down is if Coples falls to 16. There are some 4-3 teams behind us and before the Steelers that may be willing to move up for an impact DE. If we fall back we should have several options including Hightower, Glenn, Hill, etc.
I don't know, I think this draft class is pretty weak. There's about 6 top players and a big fall off after that. I wouldn't mind trading down, but I don't know if stock piling garbage really helps us.
I think the draft class is fine but many of the top echelon players are at positions that don't generally get taken up high. Elite prospects (8): Andrew Luck, RGIII, Matt Kalil, Trent Richardson, Mo Claiborne, Fletcher Cox, David DeCastro, Justin Blackmon. Clear first rounders (12): Quinton Coples, Melvin Ingram, Luke Kuechly, Michael Floyd, Mark Barron, Riley Reiff, Michael Brockers, Dont'a Hightower, Cordy Glenn, Dre Kirkpatrick, Kendall Wright, Courtney Upshaw. Controversial talent (6): Ryan Tannehill, Dontari Poe, Janoris Jenkins, Mike Adams, Stephen Hill, Whitney Mercilus. Late 1st round/Early 2nd (10): Devon Still, Andre Branch, Peter Konz, Coby Fleener, Jonathan Martin, Shea McLellin, Chandler Jones, Jerel Worthy, Harrison Smith, Nick Perry. That's 36 guys that you could take on the 32 pick and not get laughed out of the building. The problem is in the elite group you have a guard who will not get picked in the top 10, a CB who scored a 4 on his Wonderlic and a WR without top end speed. So people picking 5 to 7 are having a hard time figuring out who the best value is. That's the first gap in the draft. 1 to 4 should be Luck, RGIII, Kalil and Richardson. 5 to 7? Pick em. Then the first of the controversial players comes into play. Ryan Tannehill should be a late 1st/Early 2nd round guy but the Fins have to seriously consider him on the 8 because an elite player is unlikely to fall to them other than DeCastro and Cox. Cox does not fit a need and they can't take a guard on 8. So make the actual gap 5 to 8. Now you get past that gap and things start to settle in nicely because there are some good players available and they fit the needs of the teams who are picking. Carolina, Buffalo, Kansas City and Seattle are all going to get somebody they want. The only hard decision in that sequence is going to be KC deciding between the sure thing in DeCastro or a flyer in Poe or Tannehill if Tannehill is still on the board. Then you get the next gap at 13 to 15 because all of the elite talent is likely to be off the board at that point and the decisions are going to be based on what other teams prioritized other than the elite talent. The BPA pool at that point could easily be Floyd, Barron, Brockers and Glenn with Jenkins and Poe winking at people from the controversial pool. You get down to the Jets at 16 and things become much simpler because there are so many 1st round talents that fit a need for them. The Jets could profit from any of these guys at 16: DeCastro, Reiff, Ingram, Floyd, Barron and Upshaw. Barron and Upshaw would be minor reaches but they'd fill a need and are defensible picks. One of those guys is definitely dropping to the Jets and they probably just take the one who lands in their lap. Odds are two of them will be there to choose from.
^^ @bradwaysux - good post. err I would say about 98% of posters are advocating trading down?? the thing is pretty much every single team outside of the top 2 wants to trade down so I dont see anyone beating down our door to get to #16.
Agree that if Ingram, Decastro, Coples, Barron and Kuechly are gone it's best to trade down into the early 20s and grab Hightower. Also, I can see Upshaw or Mercilus dropping to the 20s anyway.
It's the same thing every year. Everyone wants to trade down, and only a few teams want to trade up. The only way the Jets can get good value from a trade down is if someone drops to 16 that the Jets would absolutely love to draft (ex: Ingram, Kalil, Richardson). If the Jets are in "no man's land", why would anyone else want to trade up into "no man's land"? You have to trade value to get value. Besides, the Jets are sitting at a good spot to get several prospects that can help them. Although none of them would be elite prospects, they all have the chance to be solid contributors. To name the one's I like: Ingram Perry Floyd Poe Brockers DeCastro Barron Keuchly Hightower Glenn Coples I am in favor of drafting D-line and O-line first (Poe, Brockers, DeCastro), and then look at other positions later. You always take the gamble with athletic linemen since they are so rare. Btw Br4dw4y5ux, Kendall Wright is no longer a clear first rounder. After his pro day where he showed up slow, weak, and out of shape, there's a very good chance he drops to the second or even third round.
^^^^ The Jets are in no man's land as far as their needs and what better players will be available at that spot. Poe,Decastro,Brockers and Coples IF they are there do not play positions of immediate need. Some of them play positions that we recently drafted/signed players to play or dont fit our scheme. Other teams might have a gaping hole at the position and want to move ahead.
Then you can add Stephon Gilmore in that slot. There's just a ton of talent out there with a legitimate shot at being drafted in the 1st round on the merits this year. I still think Wright is going 1st round but the draft is very fluid this year due mainly to the amount of controversial talent.
There's almost no scenario in which somebody the Jets need, who is also BPA or very close to it, does not drop to 16. The draft would have to go almost as a conspiracy to deny the Jets a shot at a good LB, WR, S or OL. The only way that the talent falls in a way that is not helpful for the Jets is if none of the DL who might go above the Jets other than Fletcher Cox is taken. If Quinton Coples, Michael Brockers and Dontari Poe are the 3 people sitting there for the Jets and all of Ingram, Upshaw, Floyd, Barron, DeCastro and Reiff are off the board and the Jets don't have Glenn that high, well that's just bad beats and you can't plan for that. If the Jets saw this scenario developing, like with Miami taking Ingram on the 8 and Carolina taking Floyd on the 9, then they'd probably be well-served to really look hard at trading down a bit. There are teams that would very much like a shot at Coples or Brockers on the 16,
Maybe you mean the combine? Wright ran in the 4.4s at his pro day. He's still a first rounder. Source: http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2012-03-21/kendall-wright-nfl-draft-pro-day-robert-griffin-iii-baylor
Does anyone know what the percentage of 1st rounders selected, 2nd rounders selected, 3rd etc that are starters for the better part of 5 years? I do not know the answer, but I would assume that the fall off from round 1 to round 2 to round 3 isn't that great. My point is trading down would give us a greater chance of picking productive players that will start for many years. Also, Tanny has dug himself a hole with his aggressive draft day style. Next year we have 31 players under contract, and no cash to sign productive players next year in the offseason. Yes he has 10 picks this year, but 7 of them are 5th round and later. Realistically the special teams, and depth rounds. Oh maybe we can find a diamond in the rough with an UDFA. Anyway, I would trade down and it doesn't matter who falls to us.
