Interesting Sanchez stats

He's not a dink and dunk passer, he's a vertical passer that lives off play action and a running game.

The staff decided to be more of a passing team this year, getting away from their identity, thus fucking everything up.

Now that they've gotten back to it, we should see more 14-20 yard throws from him, and more downfield passes.

 

The factors for QB Rating (roughly) are .87 * Comp Pct, 4.5 * YPA, 3.3 * TD Pct and -4.125 * Int Pct. These assuming that all of the above numbers are expressed as they appear in the normal output, e.g. 56.1 for completion percentage instead of .561 and the same for TD and Int Pct.

Given that weighting YPA and TD Pct are over-valued on longer passes.

As an example, if a QB completes 67% of his passes at 1-10 yards but only 33% at 21-30 his rating takes a hit of of about 30 pts. The component of QBRat at 1-10 from Comp Pct is 58.29 and the component at 21-30 is 28.71, nearly a 30 point difference in overall rating.

However if the average completion at 1-10 yards is say 7 yards and the average completion at 21-30 is 27 the numbers begin to really fluctuate in value as expressed by QB Rating. On the shorter passes you get twice as many completions but for only half as many overall yards. Expressed a different way, the average yards on a 1-10 pass attempt becomes 14/3 = 4.67. The QB Rating component based on YPA becomes 4.67 * 4.5 or 21 overall. For the 21-30 passes you get just 27 yards for the same number of throws but the average per attempt is 27/3 or 9. The QB Rating component for YPA becomes 9 * 4.5 or 40.5.

The totals at this point are 58.29 + 21 = 79.29 for 1-10 yard passes and 28.71 + 40.5 = 69.21 for 21-30 passes. Short passes are still ahead in producing a higher QB Rating but not by a lot.

Ok so now you take TD Pct and add it in and in most cases things even up very quickly. If you throw 4% TD's at 1-10 yards and 10% TD's at 21-30, which is not an unreasonable split at all given the distances involved, you wind up with the TD Pct component at 4 * 3.3 = 13.2 for 1-10 yards and at 10 * 3.3 = 33 for 21-30 yards and the overall rating becomes 79.29 + 13.2 = 92.49 for 1-10 and 69.21 + 33 = 102.21 for 21-30.

Interceptions even things up again because they also happen at greater frequency down the field but the QB Rating tends to be pretty consistent all the way across the ranges measured.

You do get wild swings in QB Rating down the field but that's because the smaller sample size at those ranges produces less predictable results from sample to sample.

The numbers I used for the factors are from a linear regression that I did about 35 years ago and while not exact they do give a good idea of the rough weighting of factors in the QB Efficiency Rating Scale.

 

Sanchez the God.

 

Schotty and Rex need to design more plays to get Sanchez throwing more out of the pocket, rollouts, PA, etc....

 

That's what he thrives on, and the lack of running game have killed that.

Because they wanted to get away from the run and be more of a passing game, they can't maximize Sanchez's talents.

The CS is to blame for the offense's change in identity at the start of the year. It was a horrible idea.

 

Sanchez is just fine. He's improved every season he's been in the league. We all seen solid improvement during his sophmore season of last year when compared to his rookie season of 09. To keep it simple, as a rookie, his QB rating was 63.0 with 12 TD's/20 INT's. As a 3rd year quarterback, as of right now, his QB rating is currently 82.3 with 9 TD's/5 INT's. He's dropped back 51 times over the past two weeks, without throwing an INT and has thrown 3 TD's. He's on the right track to becoming a franchise QB, but he's still developing. He'll have a QB rating of 90+ before the season's over. Being realistic, you can't ask for anything better than a 1st rounder, during his 3rd season, finishing with a QB rating of 90+.

 

Yep. If you throw down the field, you're more likely to make bigger plays which help out the rating. Opposing defenses are usually so surprised the Jets are throwing the ball more than 5 yards at a time, that we can make a few plays from it.

Dink and dunk passes limit what you can get on QB rating because the yards-per-attempt will be smaller. Interceptions are also magnified.

 

It's nice that he is pretty good at the deeper stuff but he needs to be good at the short stuff too. He can't throw bubble screens to save his life and this is the first year he has been able to complete a screen to a rb. Sucking at the short stuff is why his completion percentage is lower than a lot of QB's.

 

The Jets have no commitment at all to screens, so I don't think you can factor them into the conversation heavily. On short outs to the receivers, crossing patterns and flares out of the backfield Sanchez clearly is not as accurate as you'd like him to be.

I'd like to see more dedicated screens called. They tend to go for 4 or 5 yards and they're a good way to get the defense to stop cheating with run blitzes one side or the other.

 

I tend to think the jets dont run screens because Sanchez isn't good at them.

Again, this the first year he has actually completed some. The first few games they tried bubble screens and he either had them batted down or threw them wildly. It's hard to commit to screens when your QB doesn't throw them well.

 

There was a perfectly executed screen to LT in the Dallas game that went over 50 yards. And another very long one in the second game. And then there were games when none were called.

So he executes them perfectly in two games for long yards and then they don't call them anymore because he he's not good at it?

 

Like I said his year is the first year he has completed some.

I know he has still made some bad passes on a few this year too. Those aren't the only two screens that have been called this year.

 

Sanchez actually threw a lot of WR screens his first season before the Jets traded Chansi Stuckey. Then the play just vanished from the playbook, presumably because Braylon Edwards wasn't as good at them given the fact that he is a speed receiver but not a quick one and there is a lot of him to tackle.

 

The bad passes on screens I have seen this year have been on the quick WR bubble screens that were covered already and would have not gotten yards anyway. It seems like they call less of those which is a good thing.

I think people see one or two bad passes in a certain situation (like screens) and ignore all of the successful ones in dismissing them.

Anyway, throwing screens a few times (at least) in games is an overall good thing for an offense- even if they don't go for huge yardage. It forces the defense to have to defend against them. Same with draws and bootlegs -other plays that almost never get called by Schotty this year. Teams are selling out on the straight drop back pass plays in rushing the QB and they are getting away with it.

 

I would love for the Jets to run some screens- A few HB screens with LT of Mcknight or even a TE screen would be awesome considering we have one of the most athletic TE's in the league.

I think screens like that would add another dimension to this offense that would make Defenses think twice about blitzing... Couldve been helpful vs Baltimore

One of my favorite plays calls by Schotty this season was vs Miami when they did that shuffle pass to LT. If he didnt trip he was probably in for six- that was a good redzone play by Schotty IMO

 

I guess I could have worded it better but I was trying to get at the fact that before this year he never threw a good screen pass to a RB. He has done it well a few times this year so that's good and hopefully he becomes consistent with it.

It's just not surprising that he is poor at the short passes. It's weird that he is less accurate with those than deeper passes but he has been his whole career so far.