It's always a lock that one of the above trio of RBs goes #1, but it's never the same one. Out of those three, who would you take first, and why? I like LT the best. Shaun and Larry both suffered some big losses in their blocking game, Alexander lost one of the best guards in the NFL in Hutchinson and LJ lost Tony Richardson, one of the NFL's best FBs. LT still has Lorenzo Neal blocking for him and they will likely run more with Rivers at QB instead of Brees. Tomlinson can score for you in so many ways, it will be really tough for Alexander and Johnson to duplicate the success they had last year, Alexander with the 28 TDs, LJ with all those 100+ yard games. Both are also the main focal points of their offenses, none of them have an Antonio Gates for defenses to worry about. That's why I go LT over the other two...what about you?
I'd rank LT last. Johnson is first because he will shoulder a full load and if you expect him to do what he did last year he should run away with the crown. I rank LT last because Defenses are going to key in on him first and let Rivers pass. He is also more of an injury risk than the other two. Finally, the Seahawks play in a division that has some pretty weak teams and their defense seems to have gotten better which means they are going to be playing with the lead a lot and therefore will be running Alexander a lot.
I would have to go with Alexander first. He has proven it year in and out. LT would have to be next just because of the amount of passes he can catch out of the backfield. I put LJ third just because of how Herm may hold him back and that O-line is not getting any younger and the loss of Wellbourn will hurt. You have to remember that LJ and Priest did their damages with Vermeil. The offense will change under Herm.
Yeah but do you honestly think the Chefs [sic] are going to pass more under Herm? I mean they aired it out quite a bit, even without a true #1 receiver. I see Herm putting the ball on the ground and running LJ to death similar to C. Martin.
I do see Herm running LJ to the ground but Vermiel had blocking schemes down to a science. As good if not better than Shanahan. Do you really think that LJ will have plays that will let him go 70+ yards like he did with Vermeil? I dont think so. Not only will the plays change but the blocking schemes as well. Instead of the 20 for 150 like he had last year, expect more of 30 for 115 from LJ with the occasional long run.
I see your point, but I think you are being a little too extreme. A lot of the reason LJ is good is because LJ is good, ya know? Maybe the expectations should be in the middle. Like 25 for 125 which is still absurd. That and Priest is a huge ? to take any carries and with Gonzo slowing down and no receivers stepping up, he is the red zone option. Unlike in SD where they have Gates and Seattle where they have tons of WRs and TEs. (Although I will admit Alexander is as good of a TD option) I mean I agree that the people expecting 2000 yards and 30 tds are borderline retarded, but I still think he is a safe bet to at the very least match what he did last year in less games.
I know LJ is good but how many times did you see a hole that the Fridge couldn have gone through for 10 yards? I'm not saying that he wont be an elite back but I dont think that his production will be the same this year despite more carries and games. Which is why I would put him 3rd overall behind SA and LT.
I like Alexander due to expected strength of schedule, but he is on the cover of Madden this year, so buyer beware. I have big ? marks with LT & LJ, but the real question is what do you do after these 3 are gone. I dont like anyone at 4. LT, how does Shottenheimer and Brees leaving affect him, and will LJ last a full season, how does Herm ruin him, and age of his O-Line.
There are places putting Tiki at #4 but if I have the #4 pick in the draft I think I have to take Peyton or Portis.
I have seen Edge, Portis and Tiki at 4, I would probably go Peyton or Steve Smith maybe. I would lean towards Edge, but who knows what he will do in AZ. Mayeb a long shot pick like Lamont or Steven Jackson. 4 is not the place to be this year in my opinion. I am hoping for late positions.
All would make a great #1 overall pick, I actually have to play out this scenario in a little while. Who to take with the 1st overall pick??? LT would be solid but with rivers being the qb now I would expect teams to take the approach of having him beat them as opposed to LT. So LT should start seeing more 8 in the box looks now more then ever which will make it harder for him to break out those long runs. Schedule is almost the same as kc's but they have NO wide receivers other then mccardell and he's no spring chicken. SA would also be solid but you have to worry about how the loss of hutchinson will affect him and the running game. Some say tougher schedule but have you seen their schedule, @ det, az, nyg, @chi, @stl, min, @kc, oak, stl, @sf, gb, @den, @az, sf, sd and finally @tb. while tough not exactly the toughest schedule that a SB team has received in the past. and lastly LJ, where do I start? They lost their OC, their new coach is our old coach and while that worries me herm can say that he has coached a rushing champion rb. Their line while consistent is older. I don't know how many coaches herm has retained from vermeils staff but am hoping for his sake and mine he kept the Oline coach. Their schedule isn't that tough either. While my instincts says stay away simply because of who is coaching that team now my gut is telling me go with LJ because if herm wants to win over the kc faithful he HAS to run the ball and of course LJ showed what he can do last year. Give him a full season and he should duplicate if not surpass last season. In the end I would have to go with LJ....gawd help me with herm there.
