I don't get it. Anyway, all three guys pitched very well in their final regular season start. All threw 8 innings. Price vs. Baltimore: 8 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 Ks CC at Toronto: 8.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 Ks Felix at Texas: 8 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, 5 Ks
I think Felix should win it with Lester 2nd. I don't think Sabathia deserves to be in the top 5, he was good, but the other 4 have been better, and so has a forgotten guy: jered weaver. 13-13 223 IP. 3.02 ERA, 1.08 WHIP 9.48 k/9 2.97 FIP. FIP leaders for the AL liriano-2.50 Lee- 2.66 Weaver - 2.97 Lester- 2.99 Verlander- 3.04 Hernandez - 3.06 Greinke- 3.36 Price 3.44 Floyd 3.48 Lewis 3.52 Sabatha- 3.55
I had a student in a class about 15 years ago who used a logistic regression model to predict who was going to win the Cy Young Award based on various statistics like ERA, W-L, WHIP, etc. Each year since then he would send me the prediction from his model just before the winner was announced. Up until last year he was still using the exact same model based on pre-1996 data, and he found in recent years that the accuracy of the predictions had gone way down, and his model was tilting too much in the direction of pitchers with more wins. In other words, the voting patterns had already started changing before this year. He refit his model using the last 10 years of data, and when he applied it to this year he got the result that Hernandez would win fairly easily. We weren't sure if we should believe it (how could a starter with 13 wins win the Cy?), but the results of course showed it - the voters have accepted that wins are pretty meaningless (as they are), and that offense-independent measures like ERA, WHIP, Ks per 9 IP, etc., as well as total innings pitched (for a starter) are much more meaningful. Considering how much many sportswriters worship the past, this is actually a remarkable change.
