I agree, I think Sanchez's ability to extend plays by moving around and outside of the pocket is his most "gifted" talent (meaning it can't be taught). He reminds me a bit of Aaron Rodgers the way he can roll out and throw it deep with accuracy. Hopefully he never loses that ability because of his knees. I think we might see an "up-tick" from both of the New York QBs in the new stadium. I hear the wind factor won't be as big.
First of all, let me tell you, you have some valid points. I like such analysis. Rex ran the same D in NY he did in Baltimore. Yeah he must have changed it around a little bit, but the overall core philosophy was the same. Teams had those video tapes for years and still couldn't figure us out. Im not too worried. We'll change the D around a little bit according to how other teams tried to dissect us and that's just the usual change you'll see in any D year in year out. Lito was slowed down by injuries. Yeah Cromartie is not the best tackler and may not have had all that fire in him, but from what I've read, he wasn't too about the zone coverage either. He likes man-to-man coverage, fits with our system perfectly, and we'll hopefully see a turn around. Schotty is much smarter than a lot of people think he is here on TGG. He hasn't had the same QB two years in a row (Penny and KC shared 07). When he had a decent QB to work his game plan with in Favre, he lead this offense to top 5 until Favre got hurt. Last year he had a rookie and still managed a decent offensive team. I believe this years offense will be much better and that Schotty can wreak havoc next year with Sanchez. A lot of new players, but a ton of potential in EVERY new starter. LG may be our biggest OL weakness this year, but we should be great for the long run. As for the RDE spot, DeVito should be able to do a decent job IMO. He looked decent last year in the limited action he got. I certainly hope so (and think so).
I'm less worried, it would seem, about the knee than most. I like the fact that it's a preemptive surgery to strengthen things for later on. I think that the chemistry that Sanchez started to develop with Keller last year will give him that great safety blanket. Keller made some great catches down the stretch and Sanchez really started to look for him, shown by the TD pass that Keller caught in every playoff game last year, I think. In terms of defence, yes, this team got picked apart by Manning, but a lot of teams do. Manning basically found the weakness that everyone knew was there: 2nd CB and Rhodes and picked it apart. Having said that, if Cromartie turns out to be just competent and Wilson plays OK for a rookie, that will be a huge improvement. I think you'll see fewer carries for the same or more yards this year. I wholeheartedly believe that if you reversed Thomas Jones and LT's teams last year, LT would have run like TJ did. TJ basically got as far as the line took him and fell down. I hope that LT can be good enough to split with Greene to keep Greene fresh for the playoffs and show McKnight how to catch passes in the NFL. In terms of DE, I'm not worried. Don't we have a top 10 draft pick playing there now?
I'm really just pissed off because I was going to write this same article about a month from now when it got really slow and we got closer to training camp. Oh well, if it's worth discussing now, it's worth discussing then :jets:
I think this is a really interesting point about Cromartie, but I think the answer is in the switch of defenses from the San Diego zone to our man scheme. In fact, with the way the Jets run things it may even be MORE suited for a guy like Cromartie, because his job will be even simpler. In a zone scheme Cro would have to cover potentially any number of guys, from backs to tight ends to, of course, receivers. Level of difficulty for him, probably really high. In a man scheme where corners have boundary/field sides, or right and left sides it would still have some difficulty, needing to know the tendencies of a few guys each week. Now with Revis following the 1 around, Cro can pretty much put his focus on the #2 receiver. The less mental responsibilities this kid has, the better. Plus, if teams figure out they should avoid probably just Revis, then he'll get chances to do what he does best, make plays on the ball. A guy like him can get exposed not because he's playing bad the whole game, but rather because they're prone to making one or two big mistakes. If he's getting thrown at consistently he'll win a lot more battles than he loses.
I agree with most of the stuff that you said. I think as a Jets fan its embedded in the back of our mind that their is always a chance the Jets could find a way to mess up. I do have some mixed feelings about the balance on offense. I've always believed that you draft QB's early when you think they are going to help you win, not always put up huge statistics. I still think the best part of the team is going to be the running game even with a more developed Sanchez and a significantly better receiving corps, the scheme and talent to run a successful running attack is already in place. I see why you would want balance, and its not a bad thing to have but I think on the first play from scrimmage on the year, we are running the ball. This does also have to do with Schotty who as you well have mentioned has more pressure on him to succeed. I also have some doubts about him even after the playoff run. I'm still on board with the common idea that when he is doing ok, he is doing OK but if hes bad its terrible
Too much exposure from preseason to the Vikings and how the team reacts to early success or failure. A 3-3 start and the media frenzy may lead to 10-6? Can Rex motivate a crew of heroes or are they castoffs with star power but not the guts to face adversity? Can we ever get past the Colts with Peyton in the big game? However small the window of opportunity is in the NFL it can close just as quickly...the element of surprise will not be on our side this year. New stadium, over the top expectations, everyone will be looking to take the Jets back to the ground. Quite a task for Mighty Rex and a band of overachievers or the real deal? We shall see.
So what other team have seen our D on film. With the corners we have, we will be out numbering them on the line almost every play. There is not mush an offense can do besides quick slants and screens. And we are a defense first team, Dirties job is not to turn the ball over and manage the game, that's it. I am not worried.
I wanted to address this first as I will get to your other points at a later date. BTW this is a great thread and most welcome in the offseason. Hey at least it isn't a cut and paste with just a link..... :wink:~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Cromartie is really going to be a key component in the question "Is this defense going to be #1 or close in 2010?" I say this because even though Revis takes on the #1 Wr, his reputation is such that I think he will be tested significantly less. Revis was thrown at quite a bit last year. I really think that opposing teams are going to finally say, "Uncle" and stop. That means Cromartie is going to be tested quite a bit. Cromartie is without a shadow of doubt a player that has all the physical attributes to be a beast in this defense. Again the concern is toughness or more specifically, his lack there of. Here is where I have a huge problem with the Rex Ryan can coach anyone theory. In my opinion you can not coach toughness nor can you use peer pressure to make a person tough. This is my experience. I have been on enough teams and never once seen a guy transform from a twinkled toed cocksucker into Ronnie Lott. Cromartie is soft, softer then soft. That worries me because if his lack of toughness continues, expect a lot of running plays and screen passes to his side. One of the oft forgotten aspects of Revis, as a lockdown corner, is his ability to literally blow up both types of plays. (screens and sweeps ). That was a reason why I loved Strickland. In the few times he was actually on the field, Strickland blew those plays up. That was why the Jets defense was so effective last year. (when he played) Teams couldn't sweep or screen to any side. Not too mention the opposing teams slot guy was nullified. I hope I am wrong and Cromartie toughens up, seriously I really hope someone can look @ this thread and say Puck you are an idiot. However, I just see Cromartie's lack of toughness coming back to bite the Jets. So in summation, I think Cromartie isn't strong/tough enough to make this an elite defense. However, as long as he doesn't completely puss out, the defense should more or less be on par to last year. Throw my whining out the window, if Wilson can come in and play like Strickland as I think he has a shot to nullify the lack of toughness in Cromartie. That is a big if at this point.
First and foremost, thank you sir, for the excellent post. Now, onto the points: 1. Sophomore slump: I doubt it will haunt the team. Baltimore has reigned the league for years under Ryan's lead, and they didn't hit any 'slump' per se. 4-men rush that actually gets to the QB is attractive, but I think Jets need one more 2-gapping DL to get there if you ask me; if that one 2-gapping DL is found, then you can expect Shaun Ellis to be the one-gap shooting DE that collapses the pocket. He's gotten 8 sacks while fighting double teams, and if he can be what he excels to be (that is, one-gap shooter) then there you have it, the front 4-men rush that actually gets to the QB. Actually, it was this reason that I wanted to see the Jets grab either Cam Thomas or Jared Odrick (if they could) but if anybody can find a gem of a player out of UDFAs (in defense, that is) that is Rex Ryan (as he's done so with Bart and Jim). I just hope he can find another 2-gapper out of the UDFAs this season. (I think Jets brought in one DE and one DT that fit the bill...) 2. Cro actually worries me. He's as soft as a girl scout, and it will cost us. Like Puck said above, you cannot teach heart, and you cannot teach toughness. Rex better come up with a plan to cover that up... 3. Schitty calling the plays: I am actually VERY concerned about it. Rex must keep Schitty curbed or he will inevitably try to get 'too' cute. We've seen his propensity to do so more than enough times, and there's no reason to believe that propensity is gone all of a sudden. I have addressed Wishbone Option in other thread because I felt very uneasy about Schitty. He did call some neat games at the end, but he keeps committing one cardinal crime that shouldn't be overlooked even in good games; that is, he lacks the 'killer' instinct, and he never goes for the kill when he can. He instead chooses to sit on the lead and let the guys on the other side take care of the game. I really hate that. 4. If you read my post about the wishbone, you'd realize that it covers up a lot of the weaknesses that you have mentioned here. I really hope Jets install Wishbone option this year. 5. He doesn't have to - I sure hope he doesn't have to. It would be very nice if he does, but I would really hate to see the team go down despite having a kick-ass defense and respectable running game solely because Sanchez didn't live up to the expectation. One of the ways to make sure that he doesn't have to be in that horrible position is to make sure that the team gets a potent rushing attack that must be accounted for at all times. Again, that leads us to Wishbone Option.
Actually, I think Rex reining in the offense did wonders for Sanchez' confidence. Before that time, Sanchez had no idea what it took to win games at the pro level. That is why he was trying to do too much, forcing throws and the like. In a way, less proved to be more. Now the kid knows that he can win, and should be more relaxed and less inclined to force plays. All QB's have throws they want back. Montana threw an INT on the final drive in the Bengal SB that just did not happen. Big Ben threw 3 or 4 INTs (dropped by DBs) in the playoff games leading to his first SB win. Success usually makes people forget those close calls. Sometimes luck plays a hand.
I agree about Strickland, that guy was money when he actually played. If he could have stayed healthy the defense would have been even better last year and maybe Pey-Pey doesn't rip us a new one in the 2nd half. However, Strickland was not the #2 corner he was the nickel. That spot this year will be played by Wilson who looks to be the same physical terror as strickland but with better man skills. I think Wilson steps right in and shuts down the sweeps and screens. Meanwhile Cro can sit back and hawk the ball and not have to be the physical presence. As long as he can make some big plays and not give up too many big plays we're gold, gold I tell ya!
I think we'll see an improvement in Schotty's playcalling this year. This is the first time since '07 since he's had the same starting QB two years in a row. That's another reason why he decided to stay here and work with Sanchez rather than taking the HC job in Buffalo or wherever.
This is an interesting question. The only logical explanation for Revis getting thrown at as much as he did last year, despite being far and away the best cover corner in the NFL by the numbers, is that under heavy pressure QB's tend to throw at their #1 WR because they don't have time to go through the checkdown process. The #1 is almost always the best bet in that situation assuming he's a great receiver, and the Jets faced a bunch of great #1 receivers last year in Andre Johnson, Randy Moss x2, Terrell Owens x2, Chad Ochocinco, Roddy White and Marques Colston. That's 8 guys who caught passes for 1,000 yards or more and 9 TD's or more last year. I'm leaving Reggie Wayne off of the list although he meets the criteria because he only played a half against them. The other factor in the equation might be the fact that for all of his greatness and reflexes, which were on display all season long, Revis is not a pick machine who is a threat to intercept any given throw. So for a big part of the season you had stud QB's under unusual pressure with great #1's out in the pattern covered by Darrelle Revis. Not surprisingly a ton of throws were sent in his general direction. For next season, looking at the lineup of opponents, I would argue that Revis will likely see more passes thrown his way, maybe the most in NFL history given the way things stack up. Why? The Jets face more quality #1 receivers next year by a long shot than they did in 2009 and they'll still be bringing hellacious pressure, maybe even more than last year now that they have 3 corners who can theoretically match up extremely well against the receivers they are likely to be slotted against. Here's the list of opposing WR's who are likely to have 1,000 yards next season, guys who might have 1,000 based on past performance or rookie seasons in parentheses: Baltimore - Anquan Boldin New England - Randy Moss @Miami - Brandon Marshall @Buffalo - (Lee Evans) Minnesota - Sidney Rice, (Percy Harvin) @Denver - None likely Green Bay - Donald Driver, Greg Jennings @Detroit - Calvin Johnson So by midseason next year the Jets could well have faced more 1,000 yard receivers than they did all of 2009, and the schedule is pretty brutal in that regard in the second half also. @Cleveland - None likely Houston - Andre Johnson Cincinnati - Chad Ochocinco @New England - Randy Moss Miami - Brandon Marshall @Pittsburgh - Hines Ward @Chicago - None likely Buffalo - Lee Evans If all the factors stay the same as last year I expect Revis to get thrown at somewhere between 120 and 140 times next season as desperate opposing QB's just chuck it up and hope that their main man can come down with it. The increase in the quality of the Jets other corners will make Revis more of a target not less of one.
Great thread for this time of the year for sure. I agree with the quoted post too. I think Mark for the most part will have a good year, but I know even the good QB's in this league have an occasional stinker. I do hope the rest of the team can carry us through a couple of the bad games I expect Mark to have. As far as the future, they are putting together a great core here. We may have to grab a few pieces here and there, but I dont see a "rebuilding year" in sight and thats a great feeling!
I don't think I ever said Strickland was the #2 CB as I implied in my post he was the nickel....... I said, " at least the slot guy was nullified". We agree on the rest though. Wilson I hope is stouter than Strickland, really a balsa wood stick figure would be stouter,
This is an excellent post. I really think that opposing teams are going to shy away and game plan for Revis. Of course that is just my opinion. There were a couple of games in 09' where the opposing #2 Wr was inactive/hurt. The 2 that come to mind were the Houston and 1st NE game. The defense just chewed up the opposition because the QB had an even bigger propensity to throw the the #1. If you break down the tape. I believe OC's are going to see this. It really wasn't close comparing the completion percentage against Revis vs. against any other DB in the league. I can't help but think teams are going to be looping tape of the 2nd half of the AFCC and really try to find lightening in a bottle. Now I realize 31 teams do not have a QB named Peyton Manning and will automatically be less effective in attacking the Jets D. However, the Colts had such great success attacking anyone not named Revis, I just feel that is the way teams are going to confront the Jets this coming season. If the NFL shows it is anything, it shows it is a copycat league. Teams are most assuredly going to have a plan that mirrored that 2nd half. It is going to be incumbent on Cromartie and Wilson to step up and really hold down the fort. If Cromartie isn't any more effective than Lito , obviously the Jets are going to have major trouble against the spread formations and the truly great QB's. I have significant doubts about AC's toughness, not his athletic ability. If Wilson can come in and be the quasi- safety Cb hybrid that the Jets tried to make Strickland this defense will be fine and my worries about Cromartie will be unfounded. We shall see. BTW- I say quasi Safety Hybrid because they had the nickel/3rd CB in the box quite a bit to guard against screens/running plays and such. When Strickland was healthy that type of attack in the slot and bubble screens were really largely kaput. Unfortunately, Strickland did not have the body type to play in the box effectively without getting himself killed. Hopefully, Wilson has the toughness to do it.
c'mon it's not like Peyton Manning was the only one smart enough to figure out not to throw at Revis. There's only one Peyton Manning and our 4th string CB this year was the 2nd string CB when Manning was lighting us up.
Good stuff, and I can't say I disagree with much (if any) of it. Although you make valid points with the DL, I'm less concerned with that than I am with the offense. Rex/Pettine and the vets will make the defense work. My concerns with the offense have more to do with team chemistry. Luckily 3/4 of the OL is back and that is huge. Getting the new ball handlers on the same page is what concerns me the most. Mini camps, OTA's and of course training camp are going to be really important. I hope Hard Knocks isn't too much of a distraction.
