My goal was to answer the questions: 1) How good are the Pats in evaluating college talent? 2) What is the logic behind their selection of college players? (System, Talent, Positional, ecc) I've always felt like they did a very poor job of getting talent through the draft but they're always the team to beat in the AFC East so maybe I'm wrong... let's find out 1-2 round: Good if you are a starter, Ok if you are a solid backup (active most of the games) 3-4-5 round: Good if Starter or solid backup, Ok if you consistently make the team for at least 2-3 years 6-7-UDFA: Good if backup, Ok if you make the team at least 2 years 2006 - 2008: 8 Good (1 K), 4 Ok (1 ST only), 15 Bad. 2 mainly on IR. Prediction: 1 Ok (Crable), 1 Bad (Whetley). It's interesting to note that the 8 good picks are: a RB in a team without a featured back, a first round S, a K, a border-line starting CB and 4 UDFAs. Although when evaluating the draft those were good picks you get the sense that the Pats could've done A LOT better and were ultimately better at assessing value AFTER the draft rather than DURING the draft. What strikes me the most is how many high mid-rounders they mis-evaluated.. thanks god to that 2009-2010: I think the Pats have done a bit better in the recent drafts but that's mostly due to the quantity of picks they have in the higher rounds. Looking at these last 5 years it seems clear that Belichick&co don't go into the draft to look for stars but to build the base of the team with competent (but not great) players at every position. Belichick believes in his system enough to do that. Stars are either brought in through trades/FA or they were already on the team. I actually don't dislike this method of drafting considering the kind of team the Pats have. With 4 picks in the first 2 rds in 2011 and with the solid foundation they have now put in place the Pats have the chance to once again become an elite football team, but only if they re-start to draft for stars and not solid system players since their difference makers are now getting up in age. 2006 1-21: L. Maroney, RB ----> Good rotational player 2-4: C. Jackson, WR -----> 1 year out of football, now in Buffalo 3-22: D. Thomas, TE -----> Traded to the Saints for a 7th rd pick 4-9: G. Mills, TE ------------> Released after 1 season 4-21: S. Gostkowski, K ----> Great pick 5-3: R. O'Callaghan, OT --> Released after 3 seasons 6-22: J. Mincey, DE -------> Released by the end of TC 6-comp: D. Stevenson, G --> Released by the end of TC 6-comp: L.K. Smith, DT ---> Smith + 7th round pick for Broncos 5th rounder 7-21: W. Andrews, S -----> Out of the NFL in 2 years UDFA: P. Woods, LB ------> Still on the team, good back-up I't hard to rate the 2006 draft. Maroney and Gostkowski are solid players but one could have expected more out of the RB (but the Pats always carry 6 RBs) and the first K taken off the board usually has success in the league (except Nugent). Woods was a very nice find in the UDFA market. O'Callahan was a nice project pick while L.K. Smith netted them some good trade value with the inept Broncos. PS I'M CONSIDERING DOWN-GRADING MARONEY TO OK, WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK?
2007 1-24: B. Meriweather, S -----> Solid Starter 4-28: K. Brown, DE ----------> Released after TC, now with his 4th team (Titans) 5-comp: C. Oldenburg, OT ---> Released after TC, now with his 6th team (Redskins) 6-6: J. Rogers, DE -----------> Released after TC, now out of the NFL 6-28: M. Richardson, CB -----> Released after 2 seasons, now with the (Chiefs) 6-comp: J. Hairtson, RB ------> Released after TC, now with his 3rd team (Bills) 6-comp: C. Hilliard, OT -------> Released after TC, now with his 4th team (Lions) 7-1: O. Lua, LB --------------> Released after TC, now out of the NFL 7-comp: M. Elgin, C ----------> Released after TC, now out of the NFL 2007 was horrific for the Pats. Sure they got Meriweather who is a solid player but to be a S taken in the first round usually you have to be more than solid... then again, at least he's a starter. All the other pics completely sucked except for Richardson who at least contributed in his only two seasons as a Pat.
2008 1-10: J. Mayo, LB -----------> Very good player 2-31: T. Whetley, CB --------> Backup, active for 5 games in 2009 3-15: S. Crable, LB ----------> Backup, 2 years on IR 3-31: K. O'Connell, QB -------> Released after 1 season, now on his 3rd team (Jets) 4-31: J. Wilhite, CB ----------> Backup/Starter 5-18: M. Slater, WR/S -------> Solid ST player 6-31: B. Ruud, LB ------------> Released after TC, now out of the NFL UDFA: G. Guyton, LB ---------> Starter UDFA: B. Green-Ellis, RB ------> Backup RB 2008 was a pretty good year. Mayo has been a very good selection and the team was able to find a solid CB in rd 4 (Wilhite) and two UDFAs who actively contribute to the Pats success. It will be important to evaluate their 2 and 3rd round pick once they're healthy... it's make or break for them this year. I put Slater as ok since he's always made the team but his only contribution is on ST and the 5th round is a bit high for a ST specialist... still, at least his actively contributing on game-day.
2009 2-2: P. Chung, S -----------> Solid Backup 2-8: R. Brace, NT ----------> Backup, active for 8 games 2-9: D. Butler, CB ----------> Solid Backup 2-28: S. Vollmer, OT --------> Solid Backup 3-19: B. Tate, WR ----------> Spent most of the season on IR, good ST player 3-comp: T. McKenzie, LB ----> Whole season on IR 4-23: R. Ohrnberger, OG ----> Backup, active for 3 games 5-comp: G. Bussey, OG -----> Whole season on IR 6-25: J. Ingram, LS ---------> Starter (at LS -.-") 6-comp: M. Pryor, NT -------> Solid backup 7-23: J. Edelman, WR -------> Solid Backup and ST 7-25: D. Richard, DT --------> PS
2010 1-27: D. McCourty, CB 2-10: R. Gronkowski, TE 2-21: J. Cunningham, DE/OLB 2-30: B. Spikes, LB 3-26: T. Price, WR 4-15: A. Hernandez, TE 5-19: Z. Mesko, P 6-comp: T. Larsen, C 7-1: T. Welch, OT 7-comp: B. Deaderick, DT 7-comp: K. Weston, DT 7-comp: Z. Robinson, QB
I hate to be that guy, but shouldn't you include the acquisitions of Moss and Welker here? Considering they gave up draft picks for them, it's only fair to at least mention them.
Depends whether you're assessing them on player acquisition or rookie evaluation. The former they've done OK with, the latter I'd say they've struggled.
those aren't draft picks, losing a player like Seymour didn't make their draft worse did it? Drafts are evaluate on draft picks, we don't get a bonus b/c we got Holmes for a 5th this year.
I've always felt that, since 2004, the Patriots have not been a great drafting team. I think that they deploy their personnel and put them in places to be successful better than most, but they suck at the actual draft. If they were smart they would just trade away the picks they have for proven talent. Even this last draft, which isn't a bad one, should have been a hell of a lot better when you consider all the picks they had. With all the terrible teams out there needing young talent, I'm sure the Patriots could have managed to pull off some good trades. The Redskins don't value Carlos Rodgers and he's pretty good, see if they'll take a 2nd rounder for him. The Cowboys aren't thrilled with Bobby Carpenter, I think a 3rd rounder could have done the job there. I only mention these teams because I know NFC East teams best and because I think it helps assert my belief that the Patriots would be better served to trade away picks for talent they've seen in the NFL and rely less on the draft; they're not that good at it.
Some people do count Holmes as an off-season acquisition. Many, when judging if the Jets got good value or not, reduced the trade to "getting Pro Bowl WR and Super Bowl MVP for 12 games, not bad for a 5th rounder." And trading away Seymour has little to do with this year's draft. The picks they gave up for Moss and Welker in 2007 were directly taken from that draft. I don't think that's a good analogy.
the very high number of guys cut after TC the since 06 proves the point i made in the other thread, the pats have not drafted well at all. So yeah let them make 20 picks a year, but if only 4 of them make the team after their first tc, and only 1 of them becomes a starter, I think that kind of proves the quality over quantity thing don't you? Either way down with NE!
The Jets definitely represent quality and not quantity with their drafts, but I think a team like Baltimore (whom drafts well while routinely keeping all or most of their picks) is a better example of quantity. Both can work if you do them well. The Patriots are showing you how to draft for quantity and suck at it.
We are fortunate they suck at player evaluation. Even most of the good picks you highlight are just average players. Meyo took a step back last year but I still think he's good and Meriweather is a better than average safety but still makes a lot of big mistakes. And those are their best picks. Wheatley only made the team last year because of his draft status. e has no chance this year. Vollmer looks like a good pick and we will find out more about Butler and Chung this year. They also have had some bad luck with injuries (Crable, Mckenzie, Tate). My biggest problem is all the players they pass up by getting cute and trading down. Most thought Clay Matthews was a perfect Patriot type player and he fit a need but they traded out. Even some of their picks awhile back aren't anything great. Wilfork fell in their lap at #21, Seymour was #6 and you'd have to sat Ty Warren is a bit of a disappointment as the #13. Asante Samuel was a great pick, Mankins solid and they got lucky with Brady but most of the rest of the team is free agents/trades (Moss, Welker, Bodden, Springs, F Taylor, etc) Let's hope they keep drafting like they have been.
Judging an offseason you take eer move into accoutn but judging the way a team drafts you use draft picks. Good players can be found anywhere and they have not done a good job drafting.
I'm not one to suck a guy off for making a good thread or post, but this is some really good stuff. My friend is a Pats fan, and I remember telling him in the 2007 draft that his team needs to trade up instead of making 9 lousy selections. They had such a good team, with great depth, there was no way those guys would be able to make the squad even if they were decent. When you are that deep, you need to trade up and get one or two big players who can crack the starting lineup. Luckily for us, they didn't trade up for Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson or god forbid, Revis.
