LOL there goes the Jets season..................... Link to Article By Kirk Minihane Now that the NFL draft is (finally) over it's time for football to take a little hiatus from our day-to-day lives until training camp rolls around in a couple of months. But when the season previews begin get ready for something new. For the first time since Adam Vinatieri put the finishing touches on The Silence of the Rams, the New England Patriots will not enter an NFL season as the clear favorites in the AFC East. Be prepared for Sexy Rexy, Antonio Cromartie and Darelle Revis on the preseason SI cover with the headline "Masters of Defense." If you have been craving a slew of "Mark Sanchez now has a year under his belt and a bunch of new weapons, hello breakout season!" stories, you are only a trimester away from paydirt. And I can just hear Liev Schreiber at the beginning of the "Hard Knocks" season premiere .... "Last year, Rex Ryan and his Jets talked the talk and nearly walked the walk. Now, armed with a returning group of rising stars and an influx of veterans craving a last chance at glory, the only way 2010 will be a success is if it ends with the Lombardi Trophy in the hands of Woody Johnson." The worst part of all the hype? I think it's justified. On April 27, 2010, the best team in the AFC East is the New York Jets. The Jets and the Patriots were about on even footing at the end of last season, though I don't think the Pats could have gone into San Diego and even offered a challenge to the Chargers, much less beat them. The Jets have improved with a flurry of high-profile moves and have guys at skill positions (Sanchez, Shonn Greene, Dustin Keller, Santono Holmes) that are either in their prime or entering it, with room to improve. The Patriots did nothing in free agency to suggest that they will be regaining a spot in the NFL penthouse and have some skill guys (Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Kevin Faulk) leaving their prime or out for the season (Wes Welker,) with a decline in production to be expected. It's never a good sign when the off-season move that gives fans the most reason to cheer is when an underachieving malcontent is released (Adalius Thomas.) But what about the draft? The Patriots reloaded, no? Took care of needs, added depth, all that good stuff. Maybe. But I'm pretty sure the following is one sentence that I know is true. You and I have no idea how the Patriots did at the 2010 NFL draft. Sorry, no report card here. No clue if Devin McCourty will turn out to be Ty Law or Chris Canty. Rob Gronkowski could be Ben Coates, I suppose, but he couldn't he just as easily be Lovett Purnell? The dirty little secret that screenwriter William Goldman (Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, All The President's Men) once revealed about Hollywood is also true about the NFL Draft. And it is this: Nobody knows anything. Not me, not you. Not Mel Kiper, not Todd McShay, not Roger Goodell, not Charlie Casserly's toupee, not any sportswriter in America or any NFL GM or head coach. Think about it. I'm pretty sure every mock draft I've ever read has had way more misses than hits when it came to accurately predicting who would go where and when. And as for the actual draft itself? No GM can boast even a 50/50 record of picking winners. And the post-draft second-guessers are the worst of the lot. When Kiper or McShay ever tell you a player is going to be great (or lousy, for that matter) do you ever give the opinion any weight? If you are a draft "expert," Mel, then why weren't you the ONE guy that was screaming every time a Tee Martin or Spergon Wynn was picked before Tom Brady in 2000? Because you had no idea that Brady was going to be Brady. And neither did anyone else, including Bill Belichick (duh-- you think he would have let 198 picks go by if he had known there was a three-time Super Bowl winning QB kicking around?) And that gets right to the heart of the "nobody knows anything" argument. Happens every year. Unless I missed it I didn't hear McShay tell us that the 232nd pick of the '09 draft (Julian Edelman) would have 29 more catches than the seventh overall pick (Darrius Heyward-Bey.) So that was a long way to get to this, which is that I can't factor in the 2010 draft when breaking down the Jets and the Pats. Sorry. We know zippo about these guys. Maybe maybe and maybe is the law firm representing the '10 draft at this point. But here's what I think we do know, and why the Patriots enter the 2010 season as underdogs in the AFC East. When the Patriots walked off the field at Gillette Stadium following a 33-14 wild-card whipping at the hands of the Ravens on January 10 it would have been impossible to make a case that this was a team that could win a Super Bowl. No pass rush. A defense that simply could not stop a team with even a competent quarterback. One win on the road, and that was the Bills. No Wes Welker. Brady, while still one of the top five or six QB's in the league, wasn't the same guy that we saw pre-Bernard Pollard. Terrible chemistry and a ton of locker-room issues. And the worst year of Belichick's career both in terms of on-field coaching (fourth-and-2, Welker hurt in meaningless game, "defensive genius" label washed out after embarrassing prime-timers in Indy and New Orleans) and GM moves (Greg Lewis, Shawn Springs, Derrick Burgess, Joey Galloway, Chris Baker and Fred Taylor. Millen-esque.) If there was ever an offseason that called for sweeping changes and a couple of blockbuster moves it was this one, for this team. The Jets could have taken a victory lap in the offseason. We've seen it before. Up-and-coming team gets close, does nothing to improve and winds up 7-9 the next season. But they were aggressive, trading for Cromartie and signing LaDainian Tomlinson (who I think will have a good year as a third-down back as long as he understands that he is just a third-down back,) Jason Taylor and Santonio Holmes. OK, are all these moves going to hit? Of course not. But give the Jets points for this: They knew that what they had at the end of the season wasn't enough. And they tried to fix that. I have no doubt that Belichick felt the very same way about his team after the Ravens debacle. And what did Patriots' fans get? Torry Holt and Gerald Warren. I know, I know, Vince Wilfork. But he was already here (you last saw him getting destroyed by Matt Birk, which allowed Ray Rice to run for 494 yards.) I'll buy into the idea that the chemistry of this team will be a little better this year. And another season removed from the injury could mean a slightly improved Brady, I guess (but no Welker, remember.) Even allowing that, how much better is this team than the group that was humiliated by the Ravens three and a half months ago? Are we looking at another year with Tully Banta-Cain as the best pass rusher on the team? I don't see it. And it's not like this was a 10-6 Pats team heading in the right direction last year. This team has seen its win total drop in each of the last three seasons and it wouldn't shock me if that trend continued in 2010. The endless Jets preseason hype will be tough for Pats fans to swallow. But what could happen in the regular season might be worse.
The expectations for the NYJ are obviously high for every one, and it's justified. The team did improve in the offseason and should be better.
I think as of right now they are way too high. I say this not because I am a SOJF or something. I say it because realistically the Jets chances depends largely on how much Sanchez improves, if at all. Sanchez for all the good at the end of last season still is lacking in one vital thing, experience. The sophomore year for a QB is generally one that while better than a rookie season still has its pitfalls. So I think this 12-4,13-3 stuff might be pie in the sky. Of course this is April so predictions are fucking useless right now anyway.
I agree with this 100%. It will all come down to how Sanchez plays. If he improves and improves noticeably, we will go far. The thing is I predict Sanchez will improve and be 'the guy' at QB for us.
screw all coming down to Sanchez. This is a Rex Ryan ground and pound team. Its coming down to Cromartie and Kyle Wilson. If they perform well, and stay healthy along with Revis, no offense can defeat us. Plain and simple. Our linebackers, safeties, defensive line, wrs, qbs are all insignificant next to how well this pass defense performs, and thats completely built around our corners. Our offense averaged 21.8 points a game last year (regular season), and Sanchez was generally horrendous for the majority of it. With better receivers and halfbacks even if Sanchez performed exactly the same (which im sure hell improve) youre talking about the ppg signficantly increasing. How many games did we lose last year because our defense just ccouldnt last . Jaguars, Dolphins, Falcons, Colts. This team comes down to our elite pass defense, so the success of this team is in Wilson and Cromarties hands, and that will make or break us
I find that even with defenses like these, you need a QB who limits turnovers and can be clutch against the other powerhouse teams in the league. He also needs to be able to devour division opponents.
Oh I agree that limiting turnovers is hugely important. But the other stuff not so much. The Ravens completely devoured the Pats , Flacco had like 26 passing yards that game. Not saying the QB isn't important, just that his role is overshadowed by the corners
To an extent I agree that it comes down to Sanchez... Last season, Sanchez had his fair share of hot and cold. When he was cold, man was he ever. He was a liability on offense, and Rex had to come up with a color coded system to help minimize mistakes that would help he offense do just enough not to lose. It was all on the defense. This season, our defense is much more talented. Will they live up to the hype? Who knows, but I can almost guarantee that they will be a top 5 unit, which means the opposing teams wont be scoring much. Sanchez now has a plethora of receivers to throw to (Braylon, Holmes, and Cotch is the slot) which honestly just isn't fair. Arguably, these are three #1 WR's, with Cotch capable of being a 1a. Mark doesn't need to improve by leaps and bounds. Rex has already shown he can win games in spite of Sanchize....while it would be ideal, even the slightest of progress from what we saw last postseason would give the Jets a legitimate shot at being a SB contender, lets not forget that we are going to pound the rock nearly 40 times a game. Sanchez's job this year will be to minimize turnovers, and show growth by making clutch plays. It isn't asking too much given his supporting cast....
I actually think it comes down to Shonn Greene. He was outstanding in the playoffs and lloks set to be a fantastic back for us for many years, but who really knows his true potential? He wasn't active for six games, decent for seven, great for five, and injured the last one. And, as weird as it sounds we're very thin behind him. LT is not a feature back anymore, he will be great for us because of his versatility and in third down situations, but he won't be able to carry the load in case Greene comes down or starts playing badly. McKnight, as any rookie, is an unknown quantity, he could be Leon, or he could bust. It's true that our oline is fantastic and that we're going to pass the ball more this season, but the philosophy of the team will be run first, and if Shonn Greene is injured or underperforms we can find ourselves in a situation similar to the one we got in Indy, with a veteran rb that can't carry the load anymore and no one else to look for to get those valuable yards in first and second down.
I really hope some of these UDFAs work out... I was quite disappointed we didnt go for a DE or OT... we got Ducasse, however Moore & Woody are in their 30's... & alot of people fail to realize this, but Holmes & Edwards are in a contract season. Thats fine. Have you seen the 2011 Draft Class?! 2011 = Year of the Wideout.
Ravens and Bucs both won the superbowl with no quarterback. Sanchez doesn't have to do much to be that.
what does that even mean? Look at the history of SB winners. Its franchise QBs who win 4/5 times. Not the game manager and the legendary defense. Sanchez has the tools to be a playmaker at the QB position, and I expect him to be one. He won't be passing 18 times every game. Expect him to average 23-26 throws a game.
you can't talk about how we will do next season, and then in the last sentence throw it all under the bus by saying "yeah, but what if so and so gets injured?". Stick with your starters and assume they are going to play damit! 2009 our passing game was hampered by a rookie QB with 16 total college games under his belt who didn't have many options to throw to. And our ground and pound was hampered by playing against 8-9 in the box almost every play, plus leon leaving us part way through. 2010 our passing game will have an semi-experienced young gun throwing to a top receiving core plus a whole training camp of chemistry with Braylon, Holmes, Keller, and LT. Our passing game WILL be better. 2010 our running game will have a young, fresh, fast Shawn Greene running the show from game 1 with a healthy rookie scat back plus reliable hands in LT out of the backfield. Plus a devestating young lead blocker running behind a 330 pound young mauler on occasion. And all this against at least one fewer, and at times two fewer defenders. Our #1 ranked running game will be even better in 2010. And don't even get me started on defense.
On paper it's nice, but we still have a ways to go to earn any kind of praise. I want to see us become dominant on both sides of the ball.
Opening night should tell us a lot about this team in a hurry, since we're basically playing ourselves in a different uniform. If we beat the Ravens by two touchdowns then Brady & company don't stand a chance. On a side note, Vegas has us at 12:1 to win it all atm.
I honestly think its all going to depend on how we start. If we come out of the gates hot and go 3-1 or better (remember the first four games are against the Ravens, then the three division teams back to back to back) before Holmes comes to the team we will have a special season. If we go 2-2 we are in great shape with Holmes coming in to jumpstart the offense. if we go 1-3 or worse we are in big trouble, their are tons of characters and personalities in this locker room so if things start bad, the locker room may go to hell. I don't think we have ever needed a fast start more in a really long time. That said I think we are more than capable, if we can get a win opening the stadium on Monday night against the Ravens, we will be in great shape to be at worst 2-2 when Holmes comes back... We need that win, and we will get it, I am almost sure of it.
