Thoughts going forward

Hello folks, I posted awhile back on a thread aptly named a view from afar, since I'm based in Kansas City these days but still A hardcore Jets fan.

I've been reading alot of comments here and thinking alot about team needs etc. I'll probably rehash abit of my view in this thread that I've expressed elsewhere, but such is life.

First the obvious, The Jets are at this point primarily a keep the other guy from scoring and ground out the offense type team. In part because of Ryan's philosophy, but also in part based on what parts were here when he came on board.

First and foremost I love a stout defense, and I love a solid running game. But I also believe that to make a running game really work the other team has to respect your passing attack. I watched for many seasons of Schott's father in Kansas city with a pretty elite defense and a totally predictable running attack go nowhere because noone respected the Chiefs ability, or willingness, to pass the ball. I believe the Jets see that as well, after all you don't trade up to the #5 pick from #17 just to draft a QB that your going to have just hand the ball off and perform dunk and dink passes, you can get those by trading down into the second round. It's my belief that the Jets intend to open up the offense more in the near future as they've gained and continue to gain confidence in Sanchez at QB. You've spent the resources to trade up to get him now you exploit it.

This is not to say that the Jets should become a passing dominate team, far from it, but rather that the Jets need to become a multi-diminsional team on both sides of the ball. On the offensive side of the ball that means more downfield threats, not hogwild Dan Fouts style by any means, but one that is capable of putting the ball into the air and making the other side respect the deep game, this opens up the running game a great deal and opens up the short passing attack as well. One of the problems with the past few years is opponents have know that we couldn't/wouldn't throw deep and that allowed them to play tight and close to the line. If they fear the deep game they can't do that.

end of part one. Part 2 covers the offense and needs, part 3 covers the defense and needs, saving defense for last as it's the easist for me to write about

 

On Offense, as I've stated before, we need to bring it into a multi diminsional attack. So with that in mind.

The team as it stands on offense.

QB Mark Sanchez, Age 23. He showed me at the end of the year he's got the right stuff and has learned alot in his first year, he has alot to learn yet but he's coming along very quickly. I'm most impressed by how late in the season he wasn't telegraphing his passes nearly so often. He's got the tools to be an elite QB, whether he makes that step depends on 3 factors. 1) how well he continues his learning curve.
2) what targets he has
3) what the coaching staff will let him do.

With backups of O'connell (we still have him don't we?) and Clemens the QB situation is pretty settled.

RB
Leon Washington age 27
Shonn Greene age 24
Ladainian Tomlinson age 30.
I expect that Shonn will fill the role vacated by the departure of Jones. and both Washington and LT to carry the team as well. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see roughly an equal number of carries by Washington and Greene, and perhaps even LT, athough to be honest I expect to see LT more in third and long situations. The only concern at running back in my opinion isn't if we can run the ball but rather if our RB's can stay healthy. It probably wouldn't be a bad idea to draft an additional back in the lower rounds as insurance. The core of the RB staff is still relatively young in Washington and Greene.

TE
Dustin Keller age 25. To me Dustin stepped up in the last bit of the season as Sanchez matured and started to show his offensive abilty to recieve more like a slot receiver than as a traditional tight end. In alot of ways he reminds me of an old Jets TE/WR (forgive an old man for going back into the time machine) but he reminds me alot of Richard Caster, another receiver based tight end from Jets history, though he started out as a Wideout. For a multi diminsional attack he's perfectly suited, or almost so, he needs to learn to block better still and we realy need to obtain a blocking tight end for jumbo packages or clear running situations.

WR.
Jerricho Cotchery age 27
Braylon Edwards age 27
David Clowney age 24
Brad Smith age 26
I'm going to catch some flack here for what I'm about to say. We must improve our wide receiver corp, More deep threat with good hands is needed here. I love Cotch as a possession receiver but it's my belief that the team needs to step up and out to open up the running game. This means moving the safeties off from cheating up towards the line, and you do that by making the safeties respect the deep threat. The team should run most of the time and use short high percentage passes most of the time when they do pass, but the other team must respect the threat that while you're probably going to run or short pass it has to remain in the back of the safties heads that you may, just may, go deep and this threat needs to come from your main receivers, not your slot or special assignment receivers. IMHO the Jets MUST add another reciever who is either capable of running deep routes or breaking short passes into big gains. There have been rumors on the board of a Marshall trade, I would not be opposed to this if it only cost us a second round pick, or a thirdround pick with a player attached, depending on the player. there has been talk about his character, the heck with that I want a player to help the team win, not date my daughter. the reason I say I'm okay with this is it gives us the player we need in an uncapped year with a proven on the field record and would leave the first round pick, and maybe the second round pick, intact to pick up our other biggest needs, but that'll be addressed on the defensive portion of this rant
If we had to draft a WR however instead of trade for Marshall my two hopes would be either Benn or Tate, in that order. I should mention regarding Marshall that I would be okay with sending our #2 pick and a player to Denver if they returned their #3 to us in return. We draft low enough in the second round and Denver drafts high enough in the third round that I don't think it would be that big of an issue as to our choices for that draft slot.

Offensive Line,
Nick Mangold age 26
Alan Faneca age 33
Brandon Moore age 29
D'brickshaw Ferguson age 26
Damien Woody age 32
Arguably one of the best, if not the best, offensive lines in football last season and I see no reason, aside from injury, that it shouldn't repeat as such. The Jets do need to start grooming replacements for the aging Faneca and Woody though. Slausen may fit the bill as one of those future replacements, not realy sure about that and I'm not a good judge of offensive line talent on an individual level. So I'm not going to comment much here except to say with Mangold, Moore and Ferguson 3 of the positions should be pretty set for the next 4-5 seasons atleast.

Offensive draft. First or second round Wide receiver, or trade for Marshall.
Later rounds offensive line depth, TE, Running back.
Ideal situation trade 2nd round plus player for Marshall and denver's 3rd round essentialy leaving our first and second round picks intact for defensive player needs.

Overall conclusions. With the core of the team on offense being under the age of 27, Sanchez, Washington, Keller, Greene, Cotch, Edwards, Mangold, Ferguson this offensive unit can be a good one for a long time. If the Jets were to add Marshal at I believe age 25 so much the better.


End of Part 2.

 

Part 3. defense.

Okay, my meat and taters The defense. First, and to restate the obvious, we have a very good defense, and we are only 1 or 2 players from a truly elite defense. I love Rex Ryan and his blitz's, but our personel insn't the best suited for it for the simple reason that the only way we can create pressure is to blitz. That has to change, not to decrease the number of blitzs we run necessarily but rather to make the blitz's that much more effective.

If we could get one Elite pass rushing threat, and have a healthy Kris Jenkins to boot, that could tie up 4 or 5 offensive linemen just with those two players, Jenkins requires a double team and sometimes triple team and a premier rusher would tie up 2 others on most plays. That means 5 players tied up on two, throw in the QB who can't block anyone and suddenly your defense has 4 players unaccounted for in terms of bodies to block them. With Cromartie and Revis we have two corners very capable of playing shutdown man for man coverage so no need to run double teams on the wideouts, though I'd still run my free safety back from the line most of the time and that would still leave us a 3 player advantage in terms of blocking schemes. Last year when jenkins went down there was no need to double team anyone on our line leaving us no real advantage and resulted in our team being in the lower half of turnovers, sacks, and even putting the QB on the ground in hurried plays. This must improve, the good news is it really only takes one addition to do so...a real pass rusher.

DL
Kris Jenkins age 30
Shaun Ellis age 32
Mike Devito age 25
Jenkins is an all pro callibur DT and perfect for the 3-4 alignment but has back issues and is getting up in years, though he's still relatively young for a DT. Ellis has been a road warrior but at 32 he's nearing the end for the position, though he should be fine for the next season or two and be good for some sacks Devito on the other hand hasn't shown alot as a starter, I know stats are misleading for a D-linemen but as a starter he's averaged about 1 tackle a game and has only registered 0.5 sacks in 38 games. On the defensive line he's the current weakest link and most replaceable in the draft in the first or second round.

LB
David Harris age 26
Calvin Pace age 29
Bryan Thomas age 30
Bart scott age 29
Gholston age 23
Jamaal Westerman age 25
Ezra Butler age 25
David Harris is a beast, at 26 he should be a mainstay of our defense for years to come.
Calvin Pace.at age 29 he's notched 15 sacks in 2 seasons as a jet. He's fine for now in my book though he was limited to 12 games this season.
Bart Scott. I like his attitude and on the field presence.
Bryan Thomas, again I know stats aren't everything but in the linebacking core he's A) the old man and B) the least effective of the 4 starting Linebackers. He's the man Gholston should have replaced but has failed to live up to those expectations. Thomas is the weakest link on the linebacking core.

Gholston, what do you make of the guy? He's failed to live up to even a fraction of his expectations. He's only 23 so he does have time to "mature" but that clock is running very fast on a team that now has winning expectations.
Jamaal Westerman, at age 25 he has more sacks than Gholston, which isn't saying much. I don't think he's a solution to replacing Thomas.
Ezra Butler, now heres the wild card, he has off field issues and has never lined up as a pro. He's got all the tools, the speed and body to be an elite, but it's unclear if he has the mental makeup to put those tools to use, ironicaly Gholston's issue. Either Butler or Gholston if they got the mental part right could be monsters, but they could remain what they are currently, duds. Both have alot to prove, does either have the Moxie to step up to the plate? of the two I'd give Butler the edge simply because he has better cover skills than Gholston...and I admit I was for picking Gholston in the draft...I can be as wrong as anyone else ...that said he's only 23 but the clock on him is nearing midnight.

DB
Darrelle Revis age 24
Antonio Cromartie age 25
Dwigh Lowery age 24
Drew Coleman age 26
Marquice Cole age 26
Jim Leonhard age 27
Brodney Pool age 25
Eric Smith age 27

With Revis and Cromartie the Cornerback question is settled, just nickle and dime questions remain after that in that position. Between Revis and Cromartie we, on paper, have the best two cornerbacks I've seen on the same team in a very very long time, probably have to go back to the Raiders days of Hayes and Haynes, perhaps even further back. Coleman and Cole are adequate as nickle and dime backs, but either could be upgraded in the drafts lower rounds as neither stands out.

Safety on the other hand is abit of an issue for me. Jim Leonard is adequate for a strong safety, he plays the run well and is a solid hitter, not sure about his coverage skills as I didn't get to isolate on him much covering the TE. I dont know what to make of Pool, at 6'2 210 he probably makes a better option for strong safety than Leonard, but he hasn't shown Leonards ability on the run. I think Pool is probably the better coverman of the two but Leonard is the better combination of run defense and pass defense on the TE. I could consider Pool for Free safety but to be fair and honest there are two things I look for in a free safety, field smarts and good hands. With Revis and Cromartie being as good as they are a good free safety is a bonus here. By playing back the free safety can provide back cover allowing, depending on the coverage type, Revis or cromartie to play the ball in some cases or in other cases the elite CB play would alow the FS to cut under plays to go for the ball without having to worry about the deepend backcover, again situaitonal based on the covers scheme of the play.
Lowery has shown good hands a good on the field instinct and I've heard raves about his on the field situations, but as a corner he lacked the speed to cover man on NFL #1 or #2 receivers in many cases. A free safety doesn't need that extra step that a corner needs, but a free safety does need to be able to read the play and have good hands to take the ball. Lowery has both of those. Many will say that at 5'11 198 he's too small to play safety, and at strong safety I might agree, although leonard is only listed at 5'8 186 (sometimes it's not the size but the heart). A free safety's job primarily is to provide top cover for the Corners and as a last line of defense against the rush. It remains my opinion that Lowery and the Jets would both be best served with him moving from CB to FS.

Areas to improve on Defense in order of impact on the team and greatest chances of improvement.
#1 area replace Devito at DE
#2 area replace Thomas at OLB
In my opinion these are the two must upgrades.
If lowery is not moved to free safety then FS becomes the #3 need on this team as none of our current DB's are even adequate as Free Safeties.

The next is an optional if a very good draft spot is open but if we could get a very good strong saftey in the draft with cover skills and size I'd go for it.

in conclusion on defense. If we can add atleast one certified pass rusher and improve our safety play we could move from a very good defense to one of the best around in a very long time, perhaps even on par with the Bears defense of 85. Yes I believe with the right additions and changes it could be THAT good of a defense. Regardless with the changes we shouldn't rank near the bottom in Sacks (tied for 18th with 5 other teams) Interceptions (tied for 13th) or forced fumbles (tied for 13th with 6 teams). I'm a big believer on defensive big plays, they're game changers.

In a perfect draft/trade scenario for me anyways.
2nd round + 1 player (probably one of our WR's) for Marshall

Now i'm notoriously bad at projecting the NFL draft once it gets past the first 5-10 picks, okay to be honest once it' get's past the first 5. So just going to put up a list of hopeed for players in order of preference.

If we do not do a trade for Marshall then IMHO the first round pick has to be either Benn or Tate, Demarious Thomas is also an interesting choice here. (in that order) if they're still there when we pick in the first.

otherwise first and second round hope fors, not necessarily in order of preference.
Everson Griffen DE, Ricky Sapp DE, Corey Wooten DE, Brian Price DE, Sergio Kindle DE, Jerry Hughes OlB, Brandon Graham OLB, Sean Weatherspoon OLB, Greg Hardy, DE, Jason Pierre-Paul (I don't realy expect him to be available at 29, but I've seen a couple mocks that still had him on the board so what the heck). Navorro Bowman OLB, Brandon Lang, DE, Georgie Selvie,
I'm thinking that shoudl be enough players to get us through the first two picks. I admit I'm probably missing a couple of sleeper picks, guys who had an injury that's knocked their stock down (similar to Ricky Sapp)

I have to say I don't really have a real favorite on that list, I just think they're the best options at OLB/DE that will be around late in the first or late in the second, and late in the second for alot of these probably isn't an option. Which reinforces, in my mind why we make a trade for Marshall, it lets us draft our defensive needs and still improve our offense at the same time.
I will say if Darrell Stuckey is still around in round 4 we grab him

Round 4 best available running back or Strong safety (Free safety if we don't move Lowery to FS)

round 5 and later depth.

2011 draft a big DT to groom to replace Jenkins.

 

We need more than depth on the Dline, we need a real pass rusher.

 

I agree with you whole heartedly if they don't move Lowery to the position, but having watched Lowery as a CB for two seasons it's clear to me he has the tools and ability to be a very good FS. I wouldn't endorse him however for Strong safety. But even if I didn't feel as strongly about Lowery's ability to be a very good FS I would still rank the need at free safety below the need for another receiver and atleast 1 passrush DE or OLB. But that's just my view and opinion on the matter.

 

I can see that role for Pool to be honest, he's just never really racked up the picks or pass defendes I like to see in a FS. But his versatility, especially in nickle packages would be a big bonus I agree 100%. I hadn't realy thought about that.

I guess when I'm looking at the secondary I think of two things, how well they cover and do they have the hands to make picks. That's one reason I love the idea of Lowery at free safety, he had 3 picks in relatively light play last year and was a major balhawk in college. To me, free safeties are CB's who lack a step in speed for one on one coverage with a #1 or #2 wideout but have very good ball skills, just like I expect my strong safety to be a hitter that can cover a TE or slot receiver, but is strong against the run.

 

Ahh I see, and I agree on coleman. Actually when you get past Revis, Cromartie, Pool, Lowery and Leonard the secondary is pretty bad.

 

Out of TP?

 

I probably messed up some of the assignments as far as where they play on the line, I really don't follow college ball nearly enough so wind up relying on scouting sites for player info, well TGG as well and freely admit I may have missed some good fits for the team as well due to due to that fact

I've been doing abit of research on DE and OLB and redefined my wishlist abit, but it's still 3rd hand knowledge and I don't consider myself any sort of draft guru so any feedback on this is more than appreciated.

Main thing on the defensive side of things is I truly believe we need atleast one pass rusher from either the OLB or DE and we really need to upgrade both positions, even if not both with pass rushers.

I've been reading reports only on DE's and OLB's from one of the draft sites and revised my list slightly, I ruled out the top of each as not reaching us in the low end of the first round, though I did include one or two that had a small chance of being avail at the end of the first.
The revised list for the first and second round is shorter, but abit more precise in desire. and more or less in order of preference.

Jerry Hughes OLB Might make it down to us, but unlikely.
Navorro Bowman OLB
Ricky Sapp OLB
Corey Wootton DE I think Wootton has a decent chance, not great but decent of being available when our turn comes up in the second.
Brandon Lang DE
Greg Hardy DE

 

probably should add I wouldn't mind having Stuckey in the 4th if he's still there as a strong safety option