How important is the coin toss sunday ?

Since the Jets raped their ST coverage, I don't think they start with great field position, but maybe decent field position.

Rex will want Manning on the field first, but if its the other way then the offense has to start strong. Let's try running Greene 1st instead of TJ.

 

I think it would be preferable to get the ball first but I'm confident our D will keep us in the game regardless, like with the chargers and in the end our running game will win it.

 

I would say, as with any toin coss, its going to be 50:50

 

I seriously doubt they'd kick the ball to the Jets. It just doesn't seem like a smart thing for a strong offensive team to do. Why put your weaker part of the field on first? You want to set the tone for the game, no?

I disagree with starting Greene first...I think we want the sure handed TJ to start off. Not that I think Greene is going to fumble, but TJ is the veteran. I think it's too much to ask Greene to start an AFC Championship Game in his first year, and I wouldn't want them taking unnecessary chances. Let TJ set the tone for his protege. Just my two cents though.

 

I think the toss could become important, but the real impact could come at the end of the first half/beginning of the second. The Colts manage the clock at end of half/game possessions very well, and a big momentum changer in a lot of our games over the past few years has been the ability put up successive scoring drives that bookend intermission. An opponent thinks to themselves, "We're only down three with 4 minutes to go in the half" and suddenly Indy has put up 3 pts to end the half and opened with a touchdown drive. The other team finds themselves down 13 before they even get the ball in the second half. Not saying that's what will happen-- especially with a defense like the Jets--just that it seems to happen fairly often.

I think the biggest factor in this game will be the field position you guys get. I did some numbers crunching on field position by series and pts that came out of each possession over your two playoff games and the last three regular season games (pre-Indy and Cincy). What stood out to me is that you guys don't do a good job of scoring when you're forced into long drive opportunities. This makes sense with a young QB and run attack because it's hard to pick up the 6-7 first downs or so to move the ball about 70-80 yards. When you're relying on 3-6 yard gains running, and 6 sets of downs to get you to the endzone, it just takes one stop for a 1 yard gain along the way to throw the series into the hands of a promising, but less experienced QB.


The pts/drive when you start inside your own 30 is something like 0.6-0.8 pts/drive. It doesn't seem to make a difference if you start at the 8 or the 25. You tend to get the same number of points per series from those starting positions. On the other side, you guys are ridiculously good at turning turnovers/short fields into points (4 to 7 points/drive depending upon where you are on the short field)

For Indy, during the Manning-led drives against the best defenses the Colts have played this season (part of NYJ and Buff games, Baltimore twice, SF, and Denver), there doesn't seem to be a pattern:

inside 10 - 2 drives + 0 pts per
10-19 - 13 drives + 1.3 pts per
20-29 - 20 drives + 2.2 pts per
30-39 - 7 drives + 1.4 pts per
40-49 - 3 drives + 4.7 pts per
Midfield and in - 3 drives + 1 pt per

The Colts don't seem to be affected much by field position from an offensive standpoint...the exception that sticks out to me was one year when Scifres just destroyed our momentum with some amazing punts inside the 10 in the playoffs.

The two biggest factors IMHO are:
1-Indianapolis turnovers and where that leaves the Jets to start their offense.
2-The Colts ability/inability to get at least a couple of first downs to put the Jets back inside their own 30 if Indy needs to punt.

 

No, gotta leave the formula be.

TJ then Shonn...unless TJ's knee is really hindering him.

I'd also give them the ball 1st...as always.

 

As long as we don't kickoff both halves I'll be fine with the way the cointoss works. I remember this was a problem when I think Herm was the coach

 

For the Colts fans:
Have the Colts elected to defer when they won the toss at all this year?

My guess is no, and I doubt that changes Sunday. So, the toss will likely be irrelevant. The Colts will be starting this game on offense.

 

Yeah I don't think the coin toss is important at all because either way the Colts probably start with the ball. Unless the coin toss takes place before overtime.

 

No matter who wins Ibdu is starting with the ball. Both coaches want their strongest unit on the field first. That being said this I'd a huge benigit for us, b/c odds are Indt foes not score. This will put us ahead on the battle for field position allowing us to dictate the pave of the first half.

 

I think Indy gets the ball first no matter what. if they win the toss they take ti and if we win we kick it.

 

Very important. We get the ball, take it in for a TD, then on the next series shut down their "O."

You've got to believe that it will seriously take the wind out of their sails, along with the crowd.

 

Or we give them the ball, Stop them, and score on our 1st drive...

Then we also get the ball the 2nd half!

Hey, wait.....

 

it's not going to matter. indy likes to receive, we like to kick. we'll get the ball in the 2nd half

 

no, It just does not matter

 

I highly doubt the Colts would have the wind taken out of there sails if they go down a TD in the 1st quarter.

 

i'm gonna say the coin flip is of the utmost importance.they generally don't start the game until they do it.