1. When the Jets Pass The Jets are trying to keep the passes as low as possible when it comes to playcalling. Sanchez is only being asked to do enough to win the games and the rookie has been responding lately. His mobility buys him an extra second that can create a few plays down the field. His accuracy is immaculate, and has one of the best play action fakes in the NFL. Expect the Jets to be aggressive and let the rookie make a few plays with his arm to try and keep pace the Chargers. Braylon has been getting open a lot but those droppe passes have been an issue. Chargers have the 11th best Pass D this year. They only have 14 picks against 23 TDs. They faced teams such as Oakland x2, Baltimore, Miami, KC x2, Cleveland, Cincinnatti and Tennessee. These teams are primarily run teams (even Cowboys to some extent), hence the 11th best Pass D is nothing special when you have faced 9-10 teams that are set up as run first. Rookie Sanchez has his work cut out for him. Intensity is high in the playoffs and Chargers have the fire power to force the Jets to pass. Sanchez will be in San Deigo, a warm weather city that suits him the best coming out of USC. Run game will assist Sanchez and his play actions will open up a few open spaces in the Chargers secondary, but he has to be careful of those rookie mistakes with his limited passing. Keller may have a nother big day while Edwards will have a chance to bring in couple of deep and accurate throws. EDGE: Even (maybe slightly towards the Jets if I had to pick one) 2. When the Jets Run Rex has made it known that he wants to win games running the ball. Ground and pound. They were the number Run offense in the NFL this year and its no surprise. Shonn Greene has looked really good when given the opportunity. A good grip on the football, and shonn can have another career day. TJ can pound his way in from the goal line as he has done all year long. He may have been robbed a place in the pro bowl, but thats another story. Chargers on the other hand have had reasonable trouble containing the rush, especially considering that they have had the lead in the 4th quarter more often than not. They are ranked number 20 in rushing D and have given up a 4.5 YPA (only four teams have given up more YPA). Simply put, defense is not the strength of Chargers, especially the run. Faneca has been a beast in the run game while D'brick and Mangold have been right up there. The left side will open up a lot of holes in the game for TJ and Shonn Greene. Jets can draw up the run play on the scoreboard and Chargers would still have trouble stopping it. Great matchup for the Jets here. EDGE: Jets 3. When the Chargers Pass The Chargers have play makers all over the field in the offensive front. Rivers may be one of the best QB out there today. Vincent Jackson, Gates, Malcolm, and Sproles are all the weapons Rivers can and will utilize. They are all great redzone/endzone targets. On the other hand, Jets have a solid secondary featuring the best CB in the NFL, Revis. Sheppard will have his hands full with Malcolm but can contain him to some extent, while Lowery and Strickland provide excellent depth useful in passing situations. Rex will have to come up with exotic blitz packages to avoid giving Rivers the extra time to let the play develop deep down the sideline. Eric Smith will also have to step up his game as he may be covering Gates occasionally while playing a hybrid LB safety. Jets own the third best pass D (153.4 YPG) in the last 18 years of the NFL and aren't too far off from the best pass D of the past two decades (150.1 YPG). However, they do have the best YPA Pass D with in the last decade. Chargers own the third best passing offense in this year. This will be a very interesting match up. Jets have stopped or limited Schaub, Brady, and Brees, three of the best passing offenses. Rivers will have a hard time throwing the ball deep. Vincent Jackson can take his ipod on the field since he won't have much of a role, but Gates and Sproles can easily gain short yards and turn short passes into long gains. EDGE: Chargers 4. When the Chargers RUN Chargers had one of the worst running offense of the year. Second worst in total rushing yards and worst in YPA. LT is old and doesn't have the legs to carry this team anymore. Sure the Chargers are a pass first team, but the YPA of 3.3 is the reason they have been passing so much. Jets have the 8th best run D, allowing fewer than 100 yards per game. David Harris, Pace, and Scott can get in the back field and cause a few rushing attempts for a loss. The DL is old, but it has done a phenomenal job, especially after Jenkins went down. The Chargers can not run the ball and the Jets will not allow them to run it. Its no mystery here. EDGE: Jets 5. Special Teams Scifres is one of the best punter in the NFL. Kaeding has been very consistent this year as well missing only 3 FG, all over 40 yards (maybe he'll miss a couple on Sunday?). Jets punter Weatherford is seemingly healthy, but is nothing like Scifres. Feely has been outstanding through out the year. Chargers return game features Sproles and the Jets feature Brad Smith. EDGE: Chargers 6. Intangibles Crowd? This will be a home game for Sanchez. USC fans will be out there cheering their hero and negating the home game advantage for the Chargers, but only to some extent. Coaching? Rex has shown he can coach in the NFL while Norv Turner has also been excellent. Weather? Warm. Just like Sanchez and Rivers like it. EDGE: Even 7. Predictions Question of the week: Can the Jets stop Rivers? The answer is yes. Rex loves third and long situations and the Chargers run game will give plenty of opportunities for Rex to dial up one of his exotic overload blitz. Lack of run game will hinder Chargers, going up against one of the top 6 pass D in the history of the NFL. It will not be easy while the Jets have a very favorable matchup against the Chargers D. This is a dream matchup for the Jets, but it will come down to turnovers and who ever wins that battle, should win the game. Heavy blitzing may just cause a Rivers fumble or two or stop him on a game winning drive. This is one of the best D Jets have had and they have stepped it up lately. A rookie mistake can also end the Jets season, but its not like Revis won't get his opportunities either 27-20 in favor of team winning the turnover battle and running the ball won't allow for too many turnovers. Jets take this in the closing seconds when (wishful thinking) Ghost will slip past the tackle, strip sack Rivers and take the ball all the way while avoiding overtime.
I'm not gonna poke holes in your logic regarding the players because we've been debating it all week. However, I would humbly add that Sanchez being from USC won't do crap for the Jets advantage. Everyone in SD hates USC, and just because a player is from there won't be enough to make alumni fork down $250+ for tickets. Carson Palmer (USC) has played here a few times and there was zero change from a normal home game.
I'd say it's more of a Mexican factor than a USC factor. It certainly won't negate the crowd advantage but maybe it'll put a dent in it.
I guess we'll just have to wait and see. Mexico isn't too far off though. But I do agree, the affect of the home game will not be negated. Also, $250 for a playoff ticket is pocket change for football fans.
Charger fans unfamiliar with the Jets may not be aware that the Jets are probably the team least affected by playing on the road. The joke is that all their games are on the road, but seriously they have a better record this year away from the Meadowlands than at the Meadowlands. The Chargers may well prevail, but if that happens it will probably have nothing to do with the home field.
