That was the reasoning with the Jets-Raiders game. The Jets were 3.5 point favorites with ~90% action in that one too. The Jets may win this week, but for Vegas it is all about the long run.
Not only non-Jet, non-Niner fans but if we're trying to get the most accurate idea using the BSP theory you also have to exclude Patriots, Dolphins, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals, Cowboys, etc fans too for obvious bias reasons Edit: Obviously not much of a concern in this specific scenario, buy you can point to alot of suspicious 75/25 situations throughout the year where it matters a bit more
Everything has to do with the spread. If Mangini had never won a game at 4:15 in three years or something like that, you bet people would use that as a reason for picking teams.
I have a bone to pick with the 3 point theory and the 50/50 theory. When I was doing grad school in Boston one of my roomates was finishing up his PhD in Math at MIT. He's now working for a company in Vegas as an oddsmaker. If it's as simple as assigning 3 points to the home team and balancing lines for 50/50 action you don't need to hire rocket scientists to do it. The entire line setting process is more complex than any of us can imagine In fact, this Jets-49ers game smacks that 50/50 theory right in the face. If you want 50/50 to take the juice you go with Jets -6.5 or Jets -7, but certainly they didn't think they were going to get anywhere near 50/50 when they opened with ~-3.5. Why they feel comfortable with this risk, and make no mistake about it this is a BIG risk(San Fran SUCKS) is a totally another matter
Could be, they're certainly running something. SportsBetting is the perfect illusion game too. At first glance it looks like a near coin-flip(minus the juice) game because people think well one of the sides is going to win let's roll. They can make money doing the 50/50 thing, but they can make even more money with inflated/deflated lines. I think that's where the math guys come in
Jets are 7 point favorites against the Bills this week. Despite the public being down on both teams, people are pounding the New York line. Still too early to raise eyebrows though
If you want to be a Jet's fan and you want to bet then always bet on the opposition. It's like hedging your bets and making sure Sunday is not a complete disaster. Oh, and bet small if you're going to, I know a few people who literally ruined their lives because they could't control the betting.
come on guys... I know you all can see it coming... Jets loose 21-20... We miss the playoffs loosing to CP and Miami last game of the season, we hear the same old BS of how we are improving yada yada... make a BS pick in the first round in the draft, sign some rediculous guy we really don't need in the off-season and under-preform again next year... SOJ! Our franchise is like groundhog day!!! Ellis
The sad thing is that you left out the tradeup in the first round to get a great punter because hey, somebody else might take him and there's nobody worth drafting on the 19 anyway...
