Week # 1 Dolphins

LA? That's interesting - I never heard about that as a possibility. Would they still be in the AFC East?

 

As ususal; sensible and fair. I too have no idea about the Dolphins; I am not a fan. I don't follow them at all.

All I can say is if you take where we are personnel wise vs. where they are; we should out-duel them on paper.

I just think this whole first game is about letting the game come to the Jets. What I mean is don't try to do too much too soon. Miami will clearly try to establish the run early. It is predictable. We have to be ready to shut it down. If we see Ricky running for 6 yards or more at a clip all day Sunday, it won't matter if we had the Nimitz firing the ball downfield, we will probably lose the game. Personally, I do not see that happening. We have a good defense (this year); and now it is time for people to show up and play. Will we shut down their run totally; probably not. But, I think we can shut it down enough to force Chad's arm. Chad's arm can still beat us, though. We just don't have to worry about 60 yard bullets down the field.

Ultimately, I think this game will be won or lost in the trenches. If our Defensive line consistently dominates their offensive line (stops the run and has an effective pass rush) and our Offensive line can puch back their defensive line, I think we more than have the upper hand.

To say the Dolphins have not improved in the off-season is not fair; to say they have improved enough to be favorites at beating us is.

 

Nice post, Winston, and I know you are right. Still, I hate the fish enough that a loss and the I told you so by Chad Fans here next week would be pretty hard to stomach.

That aside, it's a long season and the Jets have much work to do in getting their O in synch, which should take at least four games, more probably six to 8.

 

For those of us who have drunk the kool-aid this year, this is a huge game. The outcome actually matters to us.

If the Jets lose, they face the strong possibility of starting the season 0-3. --3 does not a playoff team make. On the other hand, if we lose in week one and win in weeks two and three my point is made moot. But who really expects that to happen?

So sure, from the point of view of someone with low (some might say realistic) expectations, the outcome of this game is just like any other.

From my high expectations of the season, game one will say alot about this year's version of the Jets. It will indicate one of the marks of a playoff team, whether they can beat the teams they are supposed to beat.

I can not wait for Sunday to get here and we can watch the damn game rather than speculate endlessly about it.

 

On that note, some of our best seasons have started badly.

*1981 we started 0-3, ended 10-5-1 and hosted a playoff game.

*1982 we started with a bad home loss to Miami and ended up in the AFC Championship Game.

*1985 we lost 31-0 to the Raiders in Week 1 and finished 11-5, hosted a playoff game.

*1998 we started 0-2, ended 12-4, won the AFC East, played in the AFC Championship Game.

*2002 we started 1-4 and 2-5, won the AFC East and a playoff game.

 

We have to come out of the gate strong...cause the schedule doesnt let up....we have to smash the fins to get our momentum going for the next two games!

 

That was then, this is now.

* Do you think 10-5-1 will win us the division this year?

* In 82 we lost the first game but won the next two, is that your prediction.

* In 85 we lost the first game but won the next five. I guess if we can win the second and third game this year, we will win the fourth, fifth and sixth.

* As for 2002, we won the AFC east with a 9-7 record.

* 1998 is perhaps the best argument for why game one is meaningless. Vinny and CM's first season as Jets. But this sure would be a tough row to hoe. I'll be clinging to this one if we lose to the fish.


** As it is, most of the predictions in the Full season prediction thread have us going 1-2 to start the season. 1-2 isn't a world beating record and one that could play into this line of historical thought.

** Lastly, its the fish. We must beat the fish.

 

Just a little historical perspective to enhance winston's point about Week 1. This year it's a division game, which counts more, so it's different than some of those prior years. 1981 and 82 were division losses to start the year and we ended up as Wild Cards.

By contrast, 2002 we opened with a division road win at Buffalo, which despite the 4 losses to follow, ended up being the difference in the whole season due to tiebreakers. You can also look at 1987 and 1994, when we opened with a division road win and went nowhere. Or 1997's impressive 49-3 Week 1 win at Seattle which also ultimeately led us nowhere.

I've been watching the Jets far too long to be making predictions in Week 1. I just try to enjoy the games until we blow them.

 

If I'm Mangini I have the entire defensive front seven up at the chalkboard continuously writing

MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN, MUST STOP THE RUN

If they don't, we probably will lose and this board will be filled with "Fire Sutton Now" posts....

 

^ I always have a Fire Sutton post

 

Division games are always big if you're thinking playoffs. But it's also true that the outcomes of individual games, especially early in the season, are rarely determinative in the larger scheme of things.

I have come around to a way of looking at the season that focuses on quarters. Yeah, teams can start the first quarter 1-3 and still make the playoffs, but it doesn't usually happen. Too much ground to make up, plus a team that goes 1-3 in a given quarter, how likely they will go 3-1 in at least two others? Even if that team goes 2-2 in the fourth quarter, that ends up being only 9 wins - not enough to make the playoffs, usually.

Now, it is fair to say that the Jets' first quarter is both one where Favre and the O will be working out some kinks as well as the quarter containing two of the Jets' toughest games all year. Still, they will not want to be 1-3, and since winning either of the Pats or Charger games will be tough, that adds to the importance of a win this week.

If the Jets enter week five at 2-2, hopefully with the O improving, they will be in good shape. 1-3? Not so much.

So yeah, one game doesn't mean that much, but in the context of the Jets schedule, a win against Miami this week is pretty important.

 

I don't understand that mentality. I mean, I would for the Jets to lose to the stinking Dolphins, but week one is never a MUST game. Especially when you have this many new players on the team.

 

I put more importance on a division game no matter when it's played, simply because of the playoff tiebreakers. A division game is of course also a conference game, and that's what determines at the end which 9-7 or 10-6 teams get in over which others.

To me it goes like this, from most-to-least importance:

1-division home games---have to win those
2-division road games--any wins there are a plus at the end of the year
3-home AFC opponents--for Wild Card or home field purposes, head-to-head and AFC record
4-away AFC opponents--same as above
5-NFC opponents

 

To be honest, I think the best chance to stop Miami's running game is early in the season. I think we're still a work in progress. I think Miami will have a rough game against the Jets and if we can't keep the ball our D will ware down by the 4th qtr. I think the Dolphins still have a lot to prove. There will be no more excuses, no more answers. We are what we are. What that is, I don't know right now. But compared to last year Miami's biggest issues were coaching and toughness. I think we've imporved on both those aspects. I think Miami loses early in the season and comes on late.

 

This is exactly what I was trying to get across earlier in the thread. You were looking too far into the season when projecting how the fish were going to play in week one.

I hope I'm not doing the same with the Jets.

 

Nice post, but I'll give you something to hang your hat on. The Jets were 1-15 in 1996, Parcells took over and we won our first game of the 97 season by the score of 41-3. I would never underestimate what this man can do.

But with that said, I don't see the amount of talent on your team yet to be a real contender. The Jets actually had some guys who could play back then, just needed someone who knew how to put it together. We shall see...

 

I don't understand the ranking system. Only the first category are must win games, the rest are "pluses"? That leads us to a 3-13 record or maybe 5-11 if we win some "pluses". I'm sure there are some unwritten words I'm missing. Lets assume that the home conference games are must win as well, our final record would be 6-10. We would need to beat a couple of the weaker NFC teams just to hit 8-8, but those are insignificant in this scoring system.

I would add in another category in between your most and second most important categories. That is "games you should win" or games vs teams that will not make the playoffs. Maybe even teams ranked in the bottom third of the league. If we call that category must win, then we end up somewhere in the range of 10-11 wins.

Come, drink the Kool-aid for a week. It wont hurt, much.

 

I didn't explain my point very well. If you only win six games the tie-breakers don't matter. What I'm saying is if you are in the 8-10 win range as most teams are, who you beat matters more than if it was Week 1 or Week 17. Your divison games are most important because they are the division tie-breaker and also they count as conference games. So if you end up tied with a division foe, or in a 3-way race for a Wild Card including an AFC East team, they break the tie within the division first. If you're fighting for a Wild Card, AFC record is the tie-breaker unless you played that other team head-to-head.

I seperated home and away only because you want to hold serve at home, but in the end that doesn't count in the tie-breakers. If you split with a divsion foe you split, but it's easier to win that home game.