Interesting short sweet concise read on the jets....lol... with stats to back....thoughts? May 28, 2008, 6:08 pm A Football Scientist Looks at the Jets By Greg Bishop Tags: Jets As ESPN?s ?Football Scientist,? K.C. Joyner uses statistics to analyze the N.F.L. On Wednesday, he spent time with The Fifth Down, sharing some Jets-related numbers from his next book, ?Scientific Football 2008.? More of Joyner?s work can be found at thefootballscientist.com. Of Chris Baker, the Jets? disgruntled tight end, who is skipping voluntary organized team activities in a contract dispute, Joyner said: ?A better receiving tight end than he?s given credit for.? Joyner looked at how tight ends performed when flexed out as wide receivers. Of the 60 passes thrown at Baker last season, 43 fit into that category. Baker has long been considered an excellent blocker, but he also averaged 7.5 yards per attempt flexed wide last season ? tied for 13th in the N.F.L. with the Giants? Jeremy Shockey. For comparison, the Colts threw 62 passes to Dallas Clark in similar situations last season, while the Patriots threw 27 such passes to Ben Watson and the Packers threw three times to Bubba Franks flexed wide. The Jets signed Franks this offseason as Baker?s backup. ?I?m surprised that Baker?s numbers were that good,? Joyner said. ?They were much better than anticipated.? The Jets drafted a receiving tight end, Dustin Keller from Purdue, late in the first round, a move Joyner called ?solving a problem that doesn?t seem to be there.? Of the Jets quarterbacks competing for the starting job, Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens, Joyner said: ?Clemens always seems get the benefit of the doubt. Pennington does not.? The numbers, Joyner said, suggest the opposite. Clemens averaged more yards per attempt (6.1 to 5.8) on short passes (1-10 yards) last season. Pennington, who is supposed to have the weaker arm of the two, averaged more yards per attempt (8.9 to 8.8) on medium passes (11-19 yards), more yards per attempt (11.3 to 8.7) on deep passes (20-29 yards) and more yards per attempt (22.8 to 12.3) on the longest passes (30-plus yards). Joyner also compiled a table of bad decisions, or how often a quarterback makes a mistake that leads to a turnover of a near turnover. Examples include forcing a pass into coverage, or throwing the ball away while being tackled. Both quarterbacks had 10 of those plays last season, according to Joyner?s calculations. Joyner counted how many of the pair?s passes were nearly intercepted. Clemens had 14 passes, Pennington 12. ?There is no metric measure last year where Kellen Clemens was a better quarterback than Chad Pennington,? Joyner said. Of the Jets? defense, specifically its ability to create bad decisions by opposing quarterbacks, Joyner said: ?They did better than expected.? The Jets? defense created bad decisions on 15 plays in 515 attempts last season (Joyner eliminates spike plays and sacks for this particular analysis). That was good enoug:wink:h for 17th in the league. :grin:
I couldn't help but agree. I know the Jets needed a red zone threat, but Keller is not better than any of the WRs we could have had at 36 for that.
Yes, but those numbers fail to show that they were Clemens first real live NFL experience and he started it all against the Ravens, also a much tougher defense. We've had years of seeing Pennington falter in the playoffs - there is no doubt there he will do it again. How can you not give Clemens the benefit of the doubt? He's still learning the NFL game. He has a potentially much higher ceiling, and yes, possibly a much lower floor, but we don't know yet.
Agreed, but some people have tried to claim that if you ignore the situations and just look at how they played last year, that Clemens outplayed Pennington last year. That's just not true Clemens should get his shot this year though, for the reasons you stated. I'll disagree with you saying we've had years of seeing Pennington falter in the playoffs though. He's had some success, and some bad. He was brilliant against Indianapolis, really bad against Oakland. Great against San Diego, mediocre against Pittsburgh. Decent against the Patriots. Not many QB's put up great numbers in the playoffs all the time.
There's no reason to think that we won't have both Baker and Keller on the field at the same time. Keller work the seam, Baker does his short/midrange work, one safety/corner has to help with Keller leaving quite a bit of space for 1 of our WR's. Not exactly Rocket Science unless you're thinking Keller and Baker can't be out there at the same time. Keller was a great pick and adds a dimension to this offense that any WR at that point could not have.
Trading an extra pick for Dustin Keller almost guarantees he's going to bust based on the value spent to acquire him. He better be a 60 catch for 750 yards and 10 TD's type receiver or the Jets made a mistake in moving up for him.
No, what I said was he's likely going to bust compared to what we paid for him. You take a TE at the end of the first round and you may or may not hit the jackpot on the pick. See Dallas Clark and Anthony Becht as the bookends in the argument. You trade another pick to move up a few slots and take that TE and he better be Dallas Clark, because you've already spent too much to acquire him. If he turns into Daniel Graham or Jerramy Stevens then he's effectively a bust. If he turns into Anthony Becht then he's a disaster.
Well there have been two of those guys taken down near the end of the first round in the last decade: Todd Heap and Dallas Clark. I trust Ozzie Newsome and Bill Polian's talent evaluation a whole hell of a lot more than that Bradway mess we have.
So far, this team has traded up 3 times and day 1 and nailed it twice. I like those odds. It would be nice if you would use your tendency to base current moves on past results across the board instead of only when it suits you.
i'm sorry is this asshole suggesting penny has a stronger arm then KC. cause he lost ALL credibility with that right there.
We have no idea if the Jets nailed either of those trade-ups yet and we won't until they're three years in and still healthy and still looking as good as they look right now. John Abraham and Shaun Ellis looked liked the key to a decade-long pass rush in 2002. How's our pass rush looking now?
