Guys, I've been trying to predict what we will do on D Day based on last year, and here is what I came up with for our day 1 picks from last year-- using the expectations from a year ago, not now. Brick - probably BPA, Biggest need, and low bust position- will play yr 1 Mangold - BPA, Biggest need and again, low bust risk - will play yr 1 Clemens - Not looking into this pick much-- we needed a day 1 QB. Schlegal - Little upside, but a smart player who's work ethic will keep him from being a bust, and will allow him to contribute in some way. Smith - Like Schlegal-- little upside, but can probably work his way into the lineup, or help on specials- again, probably won't be a bust, but won't be a probowler either. The descriptions are pretty much what you would think about them a year ago, not now, but I'm thinking the FO may be looking for guys who can contribute in some way-- even if it's low risk, low reward guys. Look at Eric Smith-- he's not going to be a stud, but he won't be a bust either- he's a rotation guy, who will probably be able to start early in his career. I don't think this concludes anything, but I do think that by passing on Gabe Watson, Ko Simpson, Max Jean is telling me that they don't want to take the guys who may be considered to be a risk- not on day 1 at least. Even Pociask-- that guy has no upside as a TE, but could have played for us as a blocker in year 1 if he wasn't hurt. I think they just want to draft guys who can have ANY impact in year 1, even if they don't have much upside to be a big time player. At least, that may have been the theory last year. This is why I have made statements in the past that we would pass on Allen Branch if he was there, and I still think that is true. I also think we would pass on Dwayne Jarrett, and Quinton Moses even if he was there in the third round. I think safe picks are the way this Fo wants to go, even if upside is limited.
I think as you are building a team your strategy will have to change over time. You begin by just what the FO did last year - find players who will contribute then you adjust to upgrade at key positions. I see this years draft as a transition year where we still need players who will contribute but also can afford to take a shot or two to try to find difference makers.
What does passing on Watson, Simpson, Gilles say about the 30 other teams that did not draft them. Keep in mind you are applying every teams actions to the Jets. The Jets did not pass on these guys, 31 NFL teams did.
Well, if a team doesn't have a need for a Nose tackle, then they wouldn't really have to take a shot at a guy like Watson would they? We had big holes at those spots- that's why passing on them DOES speak volumes about our draft strategy. I think Watson was off our board entirely because they saw him as being a risk. I'm not criticizing or condoning, just pointing it out- if you think my opinion of low risk, low reward guys is not correct, then tell me what do you think our draft strategy from last year was?
A few months ago someone here posted how we pretty much drafted some of the most "athletic" players in the draft last year. I don't have a link, but I seem to remember Schlegel having some nasty strangth, E. Smith being a terrific leaper with a very solid 40 time, along with Brad Smith and Leon who we all know are very gifted athletically. I know that low bust-factor and high work ethic obviously plays a role, and it seems as if Tangini was going by these 3 rules rather than looking at college production and such.
its really difficult to formulate draft trends after only one year of this organization drafting. I think we go CB in the first round, OLB in the second round with good athletic ability but still a boom or bust kind of guy. The second second round pick is a real wild card to me
If a team has a need for a nose tackle, yet they project Watson to be a lazy, fat, out-of-shape guy without much of a chance to be a player, why would they take him over someone who they view as probably productive?
Again-- not criticizing it- just pointing out a few of the high risk/reward guys we passed on, hoping to get a prediction on this year.
I liked the Jets draft last year at the time and I still like it now. Not a great draft by any means but a solid meat and potatoes fill the holes type effort. It's hard to get that done in NYC when you have half the press lambasting you for not trading up for Bush and the other half on your ass for not taking Leinart on the 4. The one thing that I think they overdid last year was to emphasize character and leadership over physical ability and obvious positional fits. Schlegel should not have been drafted in the 3rd round. That was just a mistake. In the 5th or 6th maybe, in the 3rd no way. Brad Smith is a very talented player with no obvious position that he will excel at in the NFL. I think the Jets reached for him also, although if he actually gets a chance to play somewhere I have the feeling he'll make us realize that Ray Lucas was not the only guy in Jets history capable of fine performance when called upon unexpectedly. Titus Adams wound up representing only the changeover from the Bradway regime where draft picks were sacred for 3 years before they could be cut. It was a welcome sign to see the Jets admit he wasn't going to be on the squad and let him get signed off of the PS. What I'd like to see the Jets do this year is take the best available player at each slot in the draft, ignoring only the truly dangerous character risks along the way. We're competing against the Pats and you cannot let too much value slip away or you are going to be DOA in that race.
I don't know if you're going to find much a correlation between last year's draft and this years pending draft. I think there are two major schools of thought in that either go CB in RD 1 or go OLINE in RD 1. We're not in the top 10 so we don't have the luxury of BPA, we should take the BPA per position. Side note: Schlegel does have insane strength and he's quite weird looking to boot!
You may be correct as far as your projections. I am just cautioning you to look at the big picture instead of just what we did. You are right some teams didn't need a NT but some did so maybe half the teams passed on him along with us. My opinion on our strategy is that you make mostly good points. Brick and Mangold show low risk type of players. I think our third round picks were a result of us getting completely undressed and panicking. I don't know how Smith and Washington present low risk low reward picks but the others could be argued for.
Here's one Jets draft trend you can count on...Tannebaum will do something unexpected, maybe even huge. The guy likes to make splash. I think there's a better than 50/50 chance that one of our better players gets packaged up and sent out. Hold onto your seats.
There are so many not-quite-right fits on the Jets right now that I think you might be right. I really hope he trades down effectively and keeps working on the depth. A run of injuries could still make the Jets and us truly miserable next season.
I think we can safely say that all our draft picks will be tough, hard-working and smart. Though many draft experts thought Leon Washington was neither tough nor hard-working, it is now clear that he is both. In my perusal of potential picks, I ahve just fully eliminated anyone that has a "poor motor" and anyone that doesn't play with awareness. I think this draft will tell us a bit about how they value college production as well as how willing they are to project (college DEs to pro LBs, etc.) and how willing they are to take risks. I would not be surprised to see a trade or two - like trading McCareins to recoup our fourth rounder - but I'm not really counting on it.
They were kind of right about Washington, because in Rookie TC he was the most chastised player by the HC himself. It took a short time to mature into the lightening player he is, which speaks volumes about this coaching staff. You're right about high motor and awareness - its all about the D-Line, because their efficiency will take pressure off the DBs.
Nice example- come back to me when you have a list of busts as big as the list of studs I can list. One player doesn't change the fact that tackle is a low bust position. I love people like you, who without question will state the most obvious exception to the rule to attempt to prove a well known fact wrong. It's like saying that wearing a seatbelt is dangerous because one time a guy was trapped in a burning car because of it.
this years draft is alot harder than the drafts of the last 4 years... its so unpredictable on who we go for in the draft. we have a couple of decisions to make on our current team that would change the thinking of the draft dramatically.
