I can’t possibly see a scenario where he gets picked at 2 ahead of Reese or Bailey, but I see him getting picked from 6-10. If the Jets trade down, he is an option, if the Jets trade up from 16 he is an option. If we walk away on day one with Reese and Bain it will be the steal of the century. With one more S/CB on day three this team will rock defensively. If AG can not make them shine in our defense he will be first HC in front of the unemployment line.
I saw an analyst say he worries more about Bain in the running game in the NFL than as a pass rusher with those arms and it made a lot of sense to me
Im no expert by any stretch of the imagination but IMO if you are looking at the long term entire body of work for a Defensive Edge as it relates to pass, run, setting the Edge, cealing and flexibility I would rank them 1) Ready now Edge, Bailey, Bain and Reese 2) Run and strength against OL, Reese, Bailey then Bain 3) Setting the Edge, Reese and Bailey tied, then Bain 4) All around 3 down Flexibility and growth potential, Reese, Bailey then Bain it really will boil done to usage and best fit for the team. This is where AG better shine and help Moug with best fit. It’s his neck and future.
I really don’t think he gets past Cleveland but if he does I’ve now convinced myself that the rumor is true and we are going to trade up. It could only end in heartbreak from here.
I feel like I read something like this every year but what scouts know is always ahead of what the analysts know. We as fans and analysts as glorified fans only have game tape to judge. The combine hits and you get measurements and you see workouts and then all of a sudden the public perception starts to fall in line. I specifically remember this happening with Justin Fields. It’s highly possible that Bain was never this can’t miss top three prospect that some of us still think he is.
I'm just hopeful the Jets get good players at each draft spot. I subscribe to the thinking that there are premium vs. non-premium positions but the painful blessing of being so shitty as the Jets is that you have big-time needs to upgrade talent at just about every position. It's definitely been too long since the Jets have successfully drafted a difference-maker at Edge. I don't know who in this crop is going to be "the guy" and frankly, with the Jets luck being what it is, there doesn't seem to be really a top-2 Edge in this draft that has displayed dominance on film, consistent production, and the measurables needed to excel at the NFL level-- all aspects of risk reduction in drafting. I'm getting a little bit of a chuckle about all the cautionary tales re: not drafting the next Vernon Gholston and how to best prevent that.... and I think the only way you can eliminate that risk is draft another position at 2. The reality of Gholston as a college prospect is not how folks seem to remember it with hindsight bias "huge risk/no film/production/ just measurables". Check the stats, over his last 2 years of college production he out-produced Bailey, Bain, and Reese in TFL and Sacks, was big-10 defensive lineman of the year and a Benarik finalist. He had the production and the measurables and still was a legendary whiff. The big take-away re: drafting is that even with risk reduction (performance/film quality play, experience, scheme fit(s), and measurables) the draft is still an exercise in unpredictability.
Yeah, it will be tough. I remember Gholston very well, and my main memory (and I didn’t then and pretty much still don’t) watch a lot of college ball outside of the playoffs (back then the main bowl games and the championship game)…any my memory is that Gholston was a total non factor in the championship game and that was enough for me to say let’s just stay far away from this kid. I want players who BALL OUT when it matter most. Those are the winners. The other guys, not so much. Or let’s say, I’m not using a high first round pick on a guy who disappeared in the biggest game of his life. I hated that pick the moment we made it. But in any case, one thing I’m kind of glad about is that there is no Zack Wilson in this class. If there is only going to be 1 legit top QB prospect, then I’m glad there isn’t another one or two guys who you could kind of talk yourself into, like there was with Zach. Because Jets being Jets, that’s the guy we’d end up drafting, and Jets being Jets, that kid would bust just as big. So at lease there isn’t that kind of temptation this year…let’s just go get a stud. Agreed also that with our roster, we need help just about everywhere, so pretty much any top draft pick would also fill a need. To me, the only position I think we are set at is OT and I guess RB assuming we get something done with Hall. That’s pretty much it. I think we need help pretty much everywhere else. I think the biggest needs are Edge and WR. Then I think we would use help at CB, S, ILB, OG, C, K, DT…what else? That means as long as Mougey drafts good players, we should be getting a lot better as we need the help pretty much everywhere.
Gholston's issue was heart more than anything. For a player to be good or great they need to want to be good or great. The failure there was not worrying about his desire I sure hope that's not an issue with Reese or Bailey and they need to dig down everything they can. You can tell its not an issue with Bain, he's got culture changer potential actually. Bailey at times though coasts out there. I guess you could question the same about Reese but its also clear he's a gym rat so I'm a little less concerned.
Just shaking my head at this bullshit 2" shorter arms thing outside of any position other than maybe WR. For those of you who do "this kind" of thing mark this post. Bain will be an All-Pro before whomever the Jets draft. It's always been that way and will continue to BE that way........until it isn't. History is NOT on our side.
how is it not important though mezz? He plays a position where the opponent throws their arms out to block him, if his are shorter its easier for them to block him. And while I like Bain as a player, history is actually not on his side for his position
I can and that's where talent evaluation comes into play. The Jets aren't exactly known for being strong in this area. I don't need Reese and Bain, that's overkill. They need a stud Front 7 guy and then address the secondary or WR in Round 1. Bain over Reese all day for me.
Wait, what? Bain over Bailey all day as a run defender. That's actually the last thing to be worried about with Bain as he flies across the line making plays all over much moreso than Bailey. Furthermore, Bain is a much more complete game wrecker than just a sack master. This isn't directed at you but some don't realize that an elite sack master gets 1 sack a game and those are the best in the league. As an elite DE you need to be much more than just a one trick pony.
I think the argument is that Bain will have trouble shedding blocks in the NFL. in the run game OL and TEs will engage AT him and it will be harder for him to shed it than if he is pass rushing. he does have a great motor though
That's the crux of that "positional value" argument that seems to state that you should prioritize either a project or a one-dimensional player at EDGE over a game changer at safety or ILB.
Im sorry but who do you call a one trick pony? Bailey, Reese? Come on now. You can argue Bain is the best pass rusher, but not the most complete of the three. Reese played every position and was a monster against the run and setting the edge. As a first time Edge completely green and one year less experience he got 6.5 sacks and growing. Bailey exploded sack wise in his senior year. Bain is a wrecking ball using brute force and straight ahead get and and go strength, not a bender nor one with top speed off the line. He has a higher missed tackle rate than both of them by a decent margin. He will be a great asset for sure but not complete to be best against the run nor setting the edge when NFL tackles with big arms can sniff him out. Doubt seriously he will be picked at two, It’s Reese or Bailey foe me if we stay put. But if we pick him, I’ll root like crazy for him to succeed.
But one could also say by taking Styles at 2 you’re getting the best player at a position the Jets will need going forward in their current scheme. Davis is 37 and Sherwood may not be around for long. Of course they need an EDGE too maybe that’s where that smoke about Lawrence is coming from. In theory the Jets could grab him either at 16 or maybe take a WR at 16 and trade back up into the first round for Lawrence? But as of now the pendulum seems to have swung toward Bailey at 2 whether factual or just rumor.
You can just as easily argue that if we pick Bain, the other two quickly become All-Pros while he is average, and once again Jets are the laughing stock over drafting a short arm Edge that couldn’t shake OL at the NFL level. You never know how the pendulum will swing except more often than not we are holding the short end of the stick.
Watch the tape dude. Bain pops more than either of those two and is all over the field. Umm Bain has elite bend, what are you talking about? That's one of his strengths. No one calls Bain a one trick pony because he's a complete defensive beast. Reece disappears way too often and that's why his BUST potential is much higher than anyone else's in the top 10. Bain's consistency is wayyy above his. Bain has been doing it since his frosh year of college. ACC rookie of the year and all the rest. That is the mark of a top flight, sure thing. I want nothing to do with Reece. Guys like him bust more often than not by a wide margin. That's why these pre-draft combines and workout bs is hilarious. You don't elevate that much in the post-season when your game tape doesn't show the same. That's nonsense. Reece is the definition of raw. Will he ever reach his so called potential? That's a gamble that I'm hoping some other team makes and not the Jets. Surely not at the #2 pick in the draft. That's just irresponsible. Watch Bain against THE best teams in the country last year which were Indiana and Ohio State. Reece wins the "shorts" award while Bain keeps dominating on the field with the shortest arms. Consistent, dominant production over the other stuff, all day.
