2026 Draft - QB Prospects (Part 2)

I really don't want to argue whether giving Perriman, Herndon, and washed Gore as top weapons with no OL to Sam is BS coachspeak or not. But before we even go down that rabbit hole, if it is the Jets thing as you say, which teams make a habit of drafting back to back 1st round QBs every year to compete with the one they just drafted? If you can't find many examples, why do you think that is?

 

If we draft Reese at #2, and can get a blue chiper like Bain with a reasonable trade or direct with #16, it's a no brainer. Unless someone like Tate is also there, run to the podium and get Bain too. And both are there, run even faster . But to get two blue chip players like that in round 1 would be slam dunk.

 

Why would I care what other teams have done? I care about the Jets and nothing they have tried has worked. It's time to try something different. What are you suggesting that is different than the failed policies of decades?

 

I think after around 20 there’s a drop off in talent so to have 2 in the top 16 is good for us: so don’t blow it on reaching for Simpson

 

I just don't think it is wise to ignore what other successful teams do. I doubt there are some major breakthrough innovators here on this board that can come up with something every team in NFL thinks does not make sense and make that work for the Jets.

I see QBs succeeding when they have talent themselves and they have good support system around them. Jets never really had the combination of both. Other teams did. We need to find right QB talent and surround him with good protection, weapons, and coaching to the greatest extent possible. There is no other magic bullet. Spending a 1st round pick on QB every year is not practical, and that's why no one is doing it. It's not because no NFL teams could come up with this disruptive innovation that some folks on this board just did.

 

I see you have chosen not to answer the question about what you would do differently at the New York Jets, instead you want to continue to talk about what other teams don't do.

"We need to find right QB talent..." More unproductive trite coachspeak.

Most of us don't need to ask a statistician if you have a better chance of winning a lottery if you buy one ticket or multiple tickets.

Spending occasional picks on failures has proven to be a bigger waste of their value than taking more chances. It's like running the ball into the line with two minutes left in the game when you're down by twenty. It's like the Jets have been down by thirty for thirty years and keep running the ball.

 

I suppose all NFL teams have terrible statisticians, which is why NO ONE is spending 1st round picks every year on a QB ever and has them together on the roster. If only they could read your advice above on this board, I am sure it would spark revolutionary approach in the League. Like I said, what I would do is focus on infrastructure around the QB, which I actually think we have in a decent shape, but need more at WR, ensure we keep Hall, ideally longer term, OL depth, etc..

And if there is a QB Mooge, Reich, Glenn and Co thinks has good enough talent with relative high probability of success, I would pick him high in the draft and then focus on that guy for next couple of years. There is just no magic bullet I am afraid - for the Jets or anyone else.

There could be Josh Rosen like exception to the rule, where the guy got to play a lot 1st season (after many starts in College) and looked bad, and also they got a high pick next year, which matched them with a much better prospect than Rosen ever was. So, they picked that guy and traded Rosen. But that would be more of an exception rather than the rule.

If that guy is Simpson this year, I am fine with it too, just that chances are that means he will not play much this year, and we will not draft another QB high next year, unless we end up top 3 in the draft again, which I don't think we will. I personally am a little worried about Simpson because of his durability and size mostly with few starts, but if the Jets think he gives them a good shot, I would be OK to go for it.

 

Yeah, but this Reuben-Bain-Has-Short-Arms narrative is galling. It’s fed to us by folks who spend all draft season dissecting players with clips, stats and measurables to argue that certain players either are or aren’t the guys we actually watched on the football field. If I want to knock Reuben Bain down a peg, I’d point out how his middle-third of the season was more ordinary than special. But, his first third was freakish, and I can make a credible argument that his playoff performance against CFP competition might be the single biggest contributor to UM’s championship run. Maybe - that’s more debatable. If short arms is a concern, invest in a box of dude wipes and a long stick. Nobody is going to convince me the guy I watched play isn’t a top-5 talent in this draft.

 

Can we get something straight here though at least? It is completely unreasonable to believe the Jets would actually draft Ty Simpson and have him sit and learn for an entire season.

no way, theres' no reality in which that happens

For 1, its the NY Jets, and they just never do that

2nd, the starting QB sucks, I mean its Geno Smith, not anyone good enough to hang onto the job. So when the Jets are 1-6 or something and Smith has just as many picks as TDs you really believe the Jets are gonna be able to justify trotting him back out there so Simpson can learn? not gonna happen

 

He'll be starting the moment Woody Johnson feels embarrassed by a media report.

 

At least Geno's arms are long enough that he wont need a stick for his Dude Wipes when he shits himself!

 

For like two games - the Georgia game, when he was unstoppable, through Vandy, when he showed it wasn’t flukey. I just didn’t see anything all that First-Roundy thereafter, given the talent around him - which, admittedly, was either injured, unhelpful or both.

Also, both Simpson and Alabama have been pretty slippery about his back injury status. We heard more about it the day after Alabama got knocked out of the CFP than we ever did during the season. Not surprising - college teams are allowed to be cagey about injury status. Except, if you go back and watch the Alabama-USC game, I’d argue it’s one of his better games, though not statistically. He actually looked better AFTER Dylan Stewart drilled a hole in his chest than before. The bigger point, if you’re drafting Ty Simpson in Rd 1, you’re doing it on the theory that he can sustain something we only saw in glimpses and workouts. And, worst case, if he did suffer a significant mid-season injury, that makes two in one year. What’s clear to me is - we’ve never seen a full season of First Round caliber college football from Ty Simpson and never will. It’s a pretty bold prediction that he’ll be a good pro.

 

I’m not really trying to justify the position, only that I believe it exists. The NFL is way more data driven (to its detriment IMO) than it’s every been.

The data says there’s virtually never been a high draft pick with his arm measurables and certainly non that succeeded. He has significantly shorter arms than Suggs and Elvis Dumervil so if he succeeds, he’ll be an extreme outlier. Scouts and front office staff don’t like losing on extreme outliers.

I personally wouldn’t be scared to take him and I think his floor is what Bryan Thomas was for us under Mangini. But I could see scenarios where NFL teams are scared away.

 

Yeah, I get that. Wasn’t directing my comments to you as much as this draft season subculture, generally, and how it dissects players to such extremes that I should be convinced Reuben Bain will need a stepstool to reach up and put on his own helmet. If this scientific approach to NFL success didn’t have such a shitty track record and such disregard for on-field performance, I’d be less grouchy about it.

While I’m at it, I get just as animated about these unwritten draft rules we hear every year telling us we can’t draft a guy like Caleb Downs - who might just be the surest bet in the entire draft - because he doesn’t play a “premium position”. Which isn’t my way of saying we should draft Caleb Downs, just that this dopey draft subculture is all built around convincing us what we know to be true isn’t, and gets more wrong than it gets right.

 

Good seeing you, Brook. I’ll be glad when this draft is behind us and I can go back to just being regular-angry, instead of angry with anticipatory rage.

Never heard the Gold Jacket Rule, but I like it a lot. Of the top 10-15 projected picks, I’d be willing to bet if you asked every scout and “draft expert” to stake their reputation on the one player most likely to one day put on a Gold Jacket, Caleb Downs would come out on top and it wouldn’t be close. Second place would be a mish-mash of wild guesses.

 

I think it is a bold prediction as well. Here’s my take on the young man that gives me the feeling he can make it as a starter in the NFL.

His mechanics are very good. Some of the best I’ve seen. I like the speed of his drops, his throwing motion is polished, his accuracy is good, his velocity is good, has the athleticism to step up and make plays with his feet. Coming from a Ryan Grubb offence he was making pro reads through the pre snap motion. This I feel is vital combined with his mechanics. He’s not coming from a RPO offence a lot of what he did last year will help at the next level.

Yes, the 15 games is alarming and I get why people are concerned with that sample size but it’s not like he was the back up at East Carolina. He was getting good reps in practice at Alabama that had him prepared for when Milroe moved on to take the job and run with it. He looked polished in most of his games especially in the beginning of the season. I think that back injury had him make some off platform plays during the South Carolina and LSU games that isn’t his wheelhouse and it carried on in the OU and Auburn game as well.

 

You and I are on the SAME page!!

It just absolutely pisses me off that they've tried to "Moneyball" football. Yeah, o.k., great, baseball has done it somewhat. But football... There are waaaaayyyy too many variables to go moneyballing the damn game. The hilarity of it all is their moneyball mentality has something like a 10% success rate in football. It's negligible. Yet, the dumb asses who do this shit have NEVER taken a snap of football as a player. You can coach speak, GM speak or owner speak this shit all day long and it doesn't matter. In 3 milliseconds flat the moneyball equation is shattered after the 1st flippin' play of any game.

This horseshit about arm length, on a defensive lineman, is not only stupid but laughable. Yeah, I'm sure some of the greatest pass rushers of all time would tell you, "I wish I had that one inch!" Unreal...

 

That one inch couldve gotten me a different career path...