As long as everything about "college production" is considered, not just what comes off a stat page. Production over how long a period? Consistency of that production. Quality of opponents. Production in all types of weather. Understanding the difference between whatever level of NCAA football they played and the NFL. Ability to stay on the field. Ability to adapt to a different game. I could probably list a dozen more but it goes far beyond what many would call "college production." Throwing a rehearsed bomb to an undefended receiver in a controlled environment doesn't count much but some would call it college production.
Kronoking well said. drafting a QB with a high value pick every year is not practical. How has it worked the last 50 years? The Jets had the high QB prospect proven to be SB winning quality that had all of the measurables you want from a QB prospect, and instead of drafting Ja'Marr Chase in 2021 to give Darnold a legit WR, the Jets decide to draft Wilson after only 3 years and an embarrassing bad team around Darnold. Zach WIlson who is likely the NFL worst starting QB ever to get over 30 career starts. But hey, he is a QB so lets give him a high 1st round draft pick shot.. So they did try it your way, and failed miserably. The NFL barely practices, they do not have enough reps to evaluate QBs, they barely have enough reps to get their starting QB ready. You cannot have multiple QBs in today's NFL vying for the starting job. Where has that ever worked? Ty Simpson is not a 1st round QB. Not by a long shot. Its actually laughable. He is below average height, weight, athleticism and arm strength. All that while being severely lacking in experience. How can he possible be considered in the 1st?!? I wouldn't be happy with him in the mid 2nd. What would the Jets plan be if they draft Ty Simpson in the 1st or at 33 and then go on to win 5 games and fire Aaron Glenn? The Jets will be straddled with a poor QB prospect that a new coach will have to inherit and develop. If you think Aaron Glenn is bad, the next coach will be 10 times worse facing that situation. The Jets cannot draft Ty Simpson under any circumstance.
I disagree. The conventional way of using a high pick. Throwing him in the fire and watching him burn is the opposite of what we need to do. This team needs a culture change. Competitive snaps at practice. Working for every minute of playing time. 16th overall on a flyer that will push whoever next years coaching staff drafts high in my opinion is exactly what this team needs. Not just next year take the consensus best QB just like Wilson and Darnold and hope he is Joe Namath. Nah, I’ve seen that movie and the sequel. Draft Ty who is a Daniel Jones 2.0 caliber prospect and then in 2027 draft the blue chipper to compete against each other and hold each other accountable.
I am not saying draft a QB with a high pick next year. If the QB is worthy, maybe, but not need to push it. KC, years ago, were a perennial playoff team with a retread QB in Alex Smith. KC was good with Smith, real good, just not Super Bowl good. They identified a talented QB in the draft and made a move for him with an already built team. The Jets are terrible, They suck. They need to build a team. Any QB will fail miserably on the Jets. The Jets in this NY negative market will never succeed with a young inexperienced, not ready to play QB. never. like they never have in the last 50+ years. Ty Simpson is not half the QB prospect Daniel Jones was. are you kidding me? Daniel Jones is 6'5" with high sneaky athleticism. How does that compare to Ty Simpson? Even remotely, because it does not. Maybe they have similar arm strength, but that is not nearly enough to be a successful NFL QB. Daniel Jones, that may be the worse comp I have ever heard of any player, seriously???
Where are the Jets going to put all of those quarterbacks? You can't just trade high pick QBs away every other year (since we're assuming they are all busts) or you will get no value for those picks and your cap situation will get idiotic. So unrealistic.
I think what most people miss about the QB position coming out of college is that they are still learning and growing as players. You can't make chicken soup out of chicken shit, but a lot of NFL success boils down to coaching and development. Josh Allen had an under 50% completion percentage at Wyoming playing against Mountain West competition. You can learn accuracy. You cant learn arm strength or size. That being said you also can't coach drive and determination. That comes from within. You can hope to spark it but the player needs to have that inside. I wouldn't be mad with picking Pavia in the late rounds and see what happens. Drew Allar has all the tangibles you want to see in a QB but has none of the intangibles.
Of course all must realize that in the NFL there is no such thing as a proven prospect. The Jets biggest error in what you cite was in getting rid of Darnold when they drafted Wilson instead of keeping him on his rookie contract at the same time. Having a legitimate QB coach may have been a good idea as well. As far as your question to the masses, Bledsoe and the guy who eventually replaced him was a pretty dynamic duo.
Agree they should have kept Darnold, he was a legit QB prospect, why not keep him for the 5 years to see what you have while the Jets still needed to rebuild with new GM and coach, but how does drafting a poor QB prospect, and Zach Wilson was as poor of a QB prospect as there is, he played a COVID schedule that consisted of any team willing to play BYU that year, vs drafting a legit talented WR in Ja'Marr Chase help the team? Ja'Marr Chase would have helped the Jets vastly more than a poor QB prospect ever could. But you are advocating in drafting poor QB prospect every year until you get it right, meanwhile none of the QBs will ever get reps to actually develop. If you are going to draft a 1st round rookie QB, he better look like Darnold, with good height, weight, athleticism, arm strength, college production and experience. Ty Simpson falls way short in every area possible. He is a poor mans Mac Jones, why not just sign Mac Jones next year as a free agent vs wasting a draft pick and years of development for an undersized, lack of talent in Ty Simpson? The Pats did not draft Brady with a high draft pick while having Bledsoe and Bledsoe was not a developmental QB, he was very season vet. If you want the Jets to get a seasoned vet and draft Day 3 QBs, I am fine with that. You just can't waste 1st and 2nd rounders on developmental QBs when your team is trash. You need to draft starters to have an actual team that can compete on the field. I would want the Jets to draft a late round QB this year in Nussmeier, Allar, Beck. Those guys are not far off as prospects vs Ty Simpson and will not cost a high draft pick.
Well they can be secondary to your criteria but that doesn’t mean they’re secondary to every scout or organizations criteria. Production in college doesn’t always translate to NFL success. That’s why Jason White was a 7th rounder. Obviously an extreme analogy but Bain wouldn’t be the first player to fall in the draft after being a projected top ten pick at the close of the season.
It's not the Jets though, the NFL is not doing what you suggested in general, and many good QBs came out for other teams. How many times do you see NFL teams spending a 1st round pick in back to back years on a QB and having them compete? Even when Arizona replaced Josh Rosen with Kyler in back to back years, they traded Rosen. I think what the Jets need to do differently is surround their QB with talent, give him good coaching. Protect him with OL, give weapons. But when Sam had no OL and tope weapon as Perriman, I don't think the problem was lack of competition from another rookie QB to be drafted high when Sam finished his 1st year. After 2-3 years of good situation, maybe you can tell the guy is probably not going to succeed and you can move on. Kind of like what Minny is doing with JJ. But after 1 year to spend another high pick on a QB to compete with the one drafted a year before with a high pick is not practical. It's not Jets specific, I don't recall this being done in the NFL in general.
Ty Simpson has some of the best mechanics I’ve ever seen in any prospect. He ran a pro style offence under Ryan Grubb and was well on his way to a Heisman until he got injured. Daniel Jones is very similar except for he’s taller. His mechanics aren’t as good as Simpson but what reminds me of each other is how they deliver the ball from the pocket and how when a play breaks down they both had the athleticism to escape the pocket and pick up yards. Their arm talent and throwing motion is similar, they both have about the same elasticity in their arm and both their velocity is on par with each other.
True but I would be curious how often those guys prove that drop wrong…I absolutely hate when player evaluations after the combine are radically different than they were after the season…
Why though? The combine is more than running a 40. Interviews are a huge part of it too. I don’t think Bain has character problems though. He’s a high motor MFer through and through. I think he’s going to drop a lot more than people think though. I also think the early projections we were looking at are generally false. Most fan bases aren’t looking at draft projections in November like we are (sorry SOBs lol). So our opinions are a bit jaded when we’re like whaaaa? He dropped?! No he probably didn’t really “drop” he probably was never projected as high as we thought in November by NFL franchises.
It certainly is the Jets, though! The Jets for decades have drafted quarterbacks every few years and have never seen one become successful. Other teams in the NFL have found a way to have decent quarterbacks. A decent receiver here, a running back there and the occasional defensive playmaker another time don't make for a winning football team without a viable quarterback. You're guessing that Darnold would not have improved here even with competition - I say let's try that out and see what happens to the next guy. As long as rookie contracts are relatively cheap there's no reason NOT to go all in on the QB position. That doesn't mean turning your back on every other position; it means picking up a QB consistently until you have the right one - then you can grab another OL, DB or TE. I cannot understand why so many guys here think a draftee should be encased in a bubble instead of having to face the same kind of competition every other guy on the team must face. Every single one of these guys has competed for a place on the field since he first hit the field as a kid. You say that 2 - 3 years of a "good situation" maybe you can tell the guy is no good - exactly why Sam Darnold was pushed out the door prematurely. What would have been the sunk cost of keeping him for another year and go toe to toe with that bum from BYU? I don't say it would have been competition that drew him out - it may have been but it also may just have been that the time was right to stop seeing ghosts and catching up with the speed of the NFL game. But the Jets never gave him, or us, the chance. Surround a guy with talent, protect him, give good coaching, give weapons is just so much meaningless trite coachspeak BS. Of course all that is necessary but so are two arms, two legs and a working brain. A new QB every couple of years hasn't worked. It's way past time to try something different. The worst that could happen is that two guys become real players at the same time. SMH.
Never any guarantees when drafting a QB. However, if you think there is a decent chance that Simpson might be a franchise QB, you gotta take him at 16. I seriously doubt that he will still be there at 33. The thing with drafting a QB is that the odds of finding the right guy are relatively low, but the position value in the modern NFL is so high that you cant afford to not get a guy with reasonable potential when you have a shot. Lets try to express that mathematically. Say 1 = a good draft pick at a given draft slot. Odds of say somebody with Simpson's credentials being that guy - 25%. Position value of finding that guy at QB at 16 compared to value of any other position - 5. So you multiply .25 by 5 and the answer is 1.25, which would him the pick at 16. Play with the numbers and the math if you dont agree with my numerical analysis since much of that is subjective. If the numbers you plug in give a result greater than 1, then you draft him and take your chances.
I know this is the QB thread but this is the kind of situation where Bain drops, the ravens get him, and he becomes suggs 2.0 I’m not disagreeing w your assessment in the slightest but have this Déjà vu feeling like we’ve heard/seen this before
However, if you think there is a decent chance that Simpson might be a franchise QB, you gotta take him at 16. Nope. If you really think he is franchise QB, you have to take him at 2. I'm not saying he is, I am saying if the Jets think that they have to take him with the certain pick, not risk losing him before 16. It will be interesting to see how their brain(less) trust evaluates this year's talent.
The more I think about this, even though I doubt Bain drops that much, I would think it would be hard as hell to pass on him as BPA. With Reese as off the ball LB, Bain as pure edge with a rotation of two others, you could arguably see this D become a terror for running QB or any QBs for that matter. The O could not plan for any one player as primary target to block.
