Disagree on two points First, that tired argument that we hear over and over that goes like “well we ain’t winning WITH him, we can lose WITHOUT him”, or as you stated, “how many more wins does he get us” just doesn’t hold water. You can say that about almost anybody outside of the few top QBs. It’s a team game. We need playmakers on both sides of the ball. He’s an above average running back, who put up good numbers despite being on shit team with shit QB play with shit OL’s for pretty much his whole time here. We can all have our own opinions on just how good he is or isn’t, but at least I think we can mostly agree that he’s above average, and more realistically, a very good back… Second, this finding a comparable RB in the 5th or 6th round is nice to say but I don’t think it’s true. Not saying you need to be a first round pick to be a good back, and I don’t know those specific kids you are talking about, but I just don’t think it’s generally true. If it were, many of the top backs in the league would be from later rounds like that and they’re not. I don’t know, I get the issues like he may just not want to be here (which I can understand honestly) and I get that RB isn’t the most crucial position on the field most of the time, but for US specifically, where we have literally ONE other guy who you could say is a playmaker on O in GW, and where we have such a long ugly history of rationalizing why it makes sense to trade away the few good players we do draft (Revis, Abraham, Keyshawn, Vilma, Farrior, Santana Moss, etc.), AND for a team like us that has plenty of fucking cap space, I just don’t understand why we wouldn’t sign one of our own. At some point, if you want to get better, we have to STOP getting rid of good players and START acquiring MORE good players. Creating a hole at RB that we HOPE can be filled by some 5th round back when we need so many players at so many positions make absolutely ZERO sense to me. This is the same fucking mentality that thinks it’s ok to get rid of Q, or Sauce, or any of those guys, in exchange for picks (or in this case in exchange for literally nothing) that we HOPE will turn into players just as good as the guys we got rid of just drives me crazy. And yes, I totally get that a new GM who has shown some decent ability in his short time here just got us a treasure trove of high picks for those two guys, so that’s why I have to begrudgingly say ok I get it, but in general, you just don’t get better by getting rid of players who you KNOW are good in exchange for chances at picking other players who you HOPE will be as good or better. At least we have a new GM so the jury is still out on if it will work or not, but given the long putrid history of this team in both GMs and Coaches, the chances are likely that No, they WON’T probably be as good. I hate the mentality and I disagree so much with the argument…
- We literally have done mid round RB 4 times in the last few years. Two are on the roster now no where near his level, two waived. Why are we ignoring the facts? - We don't have to spend 14 mil. Transition tag is 11 mil. He is not finding a 14 mil from anyone else. It will be either 1 year 11 mil or something like 3 year 30 mil. It's a good price for top 15 or better RB. - I already showed the guy is one of the most explosive in the NFL today, reached top speed multiple times, more than everyone else. Again, I am not sure why we are ignoring the facts.
Another fact is that it's a scouting dept and GM issue. Just because the Jets can't identify talent at RB in the mid-late rounds doesn't mean those prospects don't exist. Of course they do. I laid out a few really good prospects who could be had in the 4th round or later. And that's literally only 2 prospects from the same school. There are plenty of very capable backs that will be around then too. The Jets scouting/GM have been very bad for a long time at finding good offensive skill talent. And regardless what that stat says, Hall is not that explosive. I've seen enough of him to know that. He's good when he has an opening or a bit of time to get his blockers setup but he's not some cut on a dime type of explosive player. That's not his game. He hasn't been that since his injury in November 2022. Like I said, I'm fine with a 1 year tag. If he's really that good still, then we'll find out next season
I think we went over the numbers already on another thread: most top RBs are 1st or maybe 2nd round players. The RBs we got were considered by consensus mid round picks. And it's 4 of them that were way worse, not just 1. Yes, JD was a bad GM, but still, the probabilities are low too. The prospects you named, let's see where they go and how they do, but I am not sure where you get the confidence we can get Hall level RB with a 4th round pick. These are not high probability picks.
I agree. Breece is a great receiving running back and one of very few offensive weapons on the team. Try to keep him.
Those RB's we got are meh, at best. They're borderline NFL players. One already suffered a serious injury in his rookie year which is not a good sign at all. No idea if he'll ever fully recovery. No one is doling out even a 7th for either of those backup RB's Allen or the other guy, Davis. Again, that is an indictment on the scouting dept. and if this doesn't change then we'll be right back here with you talking about probabilities and I'll keep telling you that the game film and eye test don't lie. The Jets scouting dept and GM's have been dogshit awful in the past at evaluating talent outside the first two rounds. That has to change now more than ever with such a dearth of NFL quality talent on their roster. This is one of the biggest problems with this franchise. Mougey is squarely on the clock and has to deliver.
71% of all RBs who ran for 1000+ yards are drafted in round 1 or 2. When you go down to 900+, even slightly higher %, 71%+. And these are just rushing #s, Breece is a good receiver too. And the numbers are even worse if you cross check that with the number of RBs drafted beyond round 2. We cannot ignore the facts just because it does not fit your narrative. Yes, JD was bad. Also don't count on replacing Breece with a mid round pick even with him gone, it's improbable. I understand it's hard to change an opinion, but I think I have provided enough info for an open minded readers to accept the facts, which clearly point to keeping Breece as the best option, certainly better than drafting a RB with 4th round pick. Name Team 2025 Rushing Yards Draft Round James Cook Buffalo Bills 1,621 2nd Derrick Henry Baltimore Ravens 1,595 2nd Jonathan Taylor Indianapolis Colts 1,585 2nd Bijan Robinson Atlanta Falcons 1,478 1st De'Von Achane Miami Dolphins 1,350 3rd Kyren Williams Los Angeles Rams 1,252 5th Jahmyr Gibbs Detroit Lions 1,223 1st Christian McCaffrey San Francisco 49ers 1,202 1st Javonte Williams Dallas Cowboys 1,201 2nd Saquon Barkley Philadelphia Eagles 1,140 1st Travis Etienne Jacksonville Jaguars 1,107 1st D'Andre Swift Chicago Bears 1,087 2nd Tony Pollard Tennessee Titans 1,082 4th Rico Dowdle Carolina Panthers 1,076 Undrafted Breece Hall New York Jets 1,065 2nd Kenneth Walker III Seattle Seahawks 1,027 2nd Chase Brown Cincinnati Bengals 1,019 5th
So ~30% of 1,000 yard rushers in the league this past season weren't drafted in the first two rounds. That's kinda significant and higher than I thought it'd be. Anyway, I'm on board with 1-year tagging Hall as I think he's sufficient for this upcoming season.
When you consider how many RBs are drafted outside of 1st two rounds, it's even worse. Probability of someone drafted top two rounds (in the past 5 years) to get a 1000 in 2025 vs the rest of the draft is roughly 6 or so times higher. Anyway, glad you are onboard, we all seem to agree it's time to tranny tag Breece! Draft Volume (Rounds 3-7): 2025: 19 RBs drafted in rounds 3-7. 2024: 19 RBs drafted in rounds 3-7. 2023: 24 RBs drafted in rounds 3-7. 2022: 19 RBs drafted in rounds 3-7. 2021: 15 RBs drafted in rounds 3-7. Total: 96 RBs (Rounds 1-2) 16 total
Agree that our scouting dept and previous GM’s have been fucking AWFUL at drafting…I think most of us agree. Jury is still out on Mougey…he’s had one draft that was I’d say a “good” draft…not a home run draft like JD’s was with Sauce, GW, JJ, and Breece…that was the only good draft JD had. But overall I’d say Mougey’s first draft was good, not out of this world great. So given all that, what gives you ANY confidence that we could replace Breece with a 4th round back? That’s wishful thinking but it’s just not really real.
I wouldn't complain if we took Emmit Johnson at 44. I think he fits in with what we want to do, could probably be as productive as Breece, if not more, and would be dirt cheap for the next 4 years.
He was the whole offseason this year, while we had qbs that had 43 passing yard games . Opposing defenses just had to cover him, and he still produced . F yeah keep him .
