We wont know the value of any comp picks until their playtime is determined. We will only get a comp pick for Reddick if we don't sign any expensive FAs next offseason. We're going to need more FAs next season than this season, so its unlikely we get any comp picks in 2026.
Possible I suppose, either way a 2026 pick is insanely low compensation, almost unheard of to trade a pick that far out.
Day of the trade I thought it would be a huge flop if we didn’t sign him to an extension. But like everyone else I’m realizing that this is basically a one year rental for the cost of dropping 30 or so picks in 2026. Still an absolute no-brainer. I do hate that cap hit though. Brutal. we are either eating the whole thing or we are going to be adding void years which compromises a bit of of the future. Then again, that’s what win now teams do.
You only get comp picks if you lose considerably more value in FA than you sign, or if you sign a bunch of cheap FAs and lose expensive ones. It's also based on their playtime. We could lose Reddick next year but we will need to sign even more FAs next year than we did this year - that how our current roster is being built. It is very unlikely we get a comp pick for Reddick. For example, we lost Huff this season and he got a large contract, which would mean a good comp pick if he plays a lot. But we signed Mike Williams, and that alone will cancel the pick we'd have gotten for Huff, if Williams plays a lot. Tyron Smith should also go big against us in the comp pick market, and we'll take hits for Tyrod Taylor, Kinlaw, Fotu, Isaiah Oliver, etc. We likely wont get any comp picks in 2025 or 2026. Comp picks are for teams that aren't big players in FA.
Yes, as with so many things in sports, we fans never really know the truth about things that happen behind the scenes unless one or all the parties involved eventually speak out. All we can do is guess and speculate what happened to try to make sense of it.
I disagree. I don't think the Jets will be players in FA next season at all. For one thing I believe Rodgers has a HUGE cap hit next season. On top of that, Reed and MC II need to be extended, and beginning next season JD will need to start extending or at least thinking about extending the draft class of 2022. OK, I just looked it up on Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-jets/cap/2025/ ) Aaron Rodgers has a $55.5 million cap hit next season. Q has a $21.65 million cap hit. JFM has a $17.464 million cap hit. AVT will have a $15.313 million cap hit, unless he is extended and cap hit lowered. That's $110 million on the cap already for 4 players. What if Reed, MC II and M. Williams are extended? Javon Kinlaw could earn an extension too. Other big cap hits are Lazard's $13.184 million, Mosely's $12.184 million, and Sauce's $10.643 million. Unless the cap increase is HUGE next season, I don't see any way the Jets are going to be able to do much in FA at all next season. In a way it's kind of funny. The Jets could get a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick for huff next season) if Smith and Williams don't earn their incentives, and then get a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick for Riddick in 2026.
I understand its problematic when you look beyond this season but we'll have to sign a lot of players to fill out the roster. We'll have more holes than ever next year. Heck we might end up needing 4 o-line starters and AVT will require an expensive 5th year deal , or new contract. But it is what it is. Rodgers is a whole another story. He costs 23 million in 2025 but carries a 50 million dead cap. If we don't release him after 2025 and suffer a 35 million dead cap, he will have a 63 million dollar cap hit. At some point we are going to have to eat a large dead cap from him. The longer we keep Rodgers the more he costs us. We may resign some players but we will need to sign a ton of FAs next year. Remember, comp picks are only for FAs, not resigns or trades. We currently have 69 million available for next season to fill a lot of big holes. It will be nearing full rebuild territory. We'll likely get 10 million more releasing JFM, maybe something with Rodgers, etc. We'll have money but not enough to fill the holes with quality talent. I can almost guarantee we will spend more money on FAs than we lose next offseason. A bigger concern than lack of comp picks is when JD took over and started building here, he had nearly 100 million, and he blew it on mostly crap. Do we really want to let him start building again?
Replacements will either need to be found for or extensions signed with T. Smith. M. Williams, J. Kinlaw, DJ Reed, T. Conklin, M. Moses, AVT, Solomon Thomas (if he re-signs with the Jets this year), Leki Fotu, Chuck Clark, Isaiah Oliver, Wes Schweitzer, MC II, Chazz Surrat, J. Sherwood, T. Adams, B. Echols, and I. Charles. The other FAs are all PS and bottom of the roster-type players that could easily be either re-signed or replaced. IMO M. Moses, Echols, Adams, Charles, Surratt, Sherwood, Clark, Thomas, Fotu, and Oliver should be fairly cheap to re-sign if the team wants to keep them. It's possible that the Jets could look to extend T. Smith if he stays mostly healthy, but then again, if he hits all his incentives, those will probably hit on next season's cap, and he'd be too expensive. The same for M. Williams. Between the two, I think JD would look to keep Williams if he stays healthy and has a good season. I think they'll look to keep Reed if he doesn't ask for too much money. Conklin could want to move on to a team where he gets more opportunities, and if the Jets were to draft Bowers, I think the Jets would let Conklin walk. Unless AVT stays healthy all season and makes All Pro, I can't imagine that his new deal would be the expensive. It would probably be an incentive-laden deal. Schweitzer could easily be replaced and I think they'll let him walk. If JD drafts an OT at #10 or following a slight trade down, he should or at least could have his starting LT for next season on a rookie deal. If he drafts a WR at #72 or in the 2nd round following a trade down, he should have his #2 WR (if he develops) should Williams leave in FA. So both T. Smith and M. Williams will hopefully be replaced by draft picks this year. If he drafts well and takes an IOL in the 4th round, that player could be able to replace Schweitzer. If Moses, Echols, Surrat, Sherwood, Adams, Charles, Thomas and Fotu re-sign/extend, they won't need to be replaced. MC II could be a problem as he probably will look to get paid and the Jets may not be able to afford to pay him. If Chuck Clark stays health and has a great season, he could look to get paid as well, as could Kinlaw. Reed could be a problem, but I'd like to think that he won't and he'll be back. So the players the Jets may be likely to have to replace are quite possibly only Kinlaw, MC II, Reed, Chuck Clark and Conklin, and maybe Moses. They're pretty high on Zaire Barnes, so they could even let one of Surratt or Sherwood walk. We may not get any comp picks in 2025, but to say that we won't in 2026 is not accurate. If T. Smith, M. Williams, M. Moses, J. Kinlaw, I. Oliver, and Conklin all walk in FA next year, then the Jets should wind up with several compensatory picks in 2026.
I agree that there are plenty of possible scenarios. But yours is highly idealistic, and a little unrealistic. If/when Kinlaw, MC II, Reed, Chuck Clark, Conklin, and Moses walk will we replace them with cheaper FAs then they were? Our 2026 comp pick assets ATM are Mike Williams, Hassan Reddick, Trevon Smith, and maybe AVT (the other players you listed wont generate comp picks). Will we replace them with cheaper players? If we are done going all in, than maybe. This is where teams need to make the draft pay off. If we get a suitable replacement for Williams and Smith in the draft, we have a better chance of getting a comp pick. (I don't think were going to draft an edge...?). TE will be a wasted selection comp pick wise, as it wont replace any departing players. The truth is were going to need even more players than you listed. Also, there is one very serious stumbling block that we are in danger of. If we melt down this season nobody is going to want to return, and good FAs wont want to come without a huge payday. This will also effect second contracts for Garrett, Breece, Sauce and JJ, which may also come into play next offseason. If we implode this year were deep in the soup.
Well done, really brings the whole picture into context moving forward. I can’t believe this happened just because Jets missed on most important part of team building, drafting a top tier QB. All this time wasted on Wilson development and now FO is in crisis mode and throwing blueprint into the fire to win now. We saw Tannenbaum try this and success is only temporary and never a sure thing to win a SB. Hopefully this strategy will garner more than just a playoff appearance.
This is why Saleh and Douglas should have been fired after this past season. Saleh's been a miserable failure in his three years and Douglas has meandered along for five years now and not done the one thing he promised to do when he took over, which was to build the team from the inside out and focus first on the O-line. Now we're supposed this dynamic duo to suddenly buck the trend and get this team heading into the right direction? When they inevitably implode again this year, we'll be staring into an even darker abyss than we have been looking at for the past 13 years, which in some respects would be quite an impressive feat for a GM that was hailed to be the next big thing but has been anything but.
I agree JD has not done what he said he would do, but he's definitely put a shit ton of resources into the O line so I would say he did focus on it. They've mostly all panned out terribly. Just putting resources into the O line isn't good enough. If it's trash again this year I'd call it fireable. His first truly fireable decision was the backup quarterback situation, before and after Rodgers injury.
What is so idealistic and unrealistic about my scenario? And why wouldn't Kinlaw and I. Oliver potentially give us comp picks. Kinlaw is supposedly ascending. If he has a great season and signs a big contract somewhere he could bring a decent comp pick, but even if not, Oliver and he could possibly bring a 6th or 7th, but could be canceled out by FAs we sign. Even if we don't get comp picks for them, getting them for M. Williams, Reddick,T. Smith and maybe AVT. I think that may be more comp picks that we've ever received. Unless JD can work some cap magic, we pretty much would have to replace Reddick and AVT with cheap FAs. There is no reason that JD shouldn't be able to find Smith's replacement and at least a decent WR in this year's draft. It is my understand that the draft has nothing to do with compensatory picks. They are simply rewarded when a team loses a FA to another team and don't sign more/bigger contract FAs. So whether JD is able to replace Smith and Williams in the draft, and the issue of TE is irrelevant. Why will we need even more players? The only reason I can think of is if the Jets do implode this season or get too finicky, and next season they aren't going to have the ability or privilege of being finicky. They've put themselves into a real bind. Next year is probably going to be a down year either way, but at least I think we'll have all our draft picks. Maybe JD can trade down a time or two and add some extra picks, and then in 2026 we could/should have some additional picks due to the comp picks.
I feel like it was fireable last year when he decided to put that O-line in front of his newly acquired future HOF QB. And, yes, you are absolutely correct on the backup QB situation. It's sad that literally every fan (here and elsewhere) could see that we were going into the season with a terrible O-line situation and an abysmal backup QB situation and the power that be apparently couldn't piece those two things together until it was far too late.
There's no way the team will be staring into a deeper abyss than when JD was hired. Have you forgotten about Idzik, Mac and Gase? The only way we'd be staring into a deeper abyss is if all of Breece, Sauce, G. Wilson, JJ, McDonald, and every other good player we have opt to leave after their contracts are up. That could happen, but it hasn't yet.
If they win the SB this season, I won't care anymore. I was a Met fan until they won the world series and then my interest faded to the point where I don't follow Major League baseball at all.
mike williams was cut by the chargers so he does not count towards the comp pick formula. tyrons contract voided so he doesn’t count either. someone posted a link that showed that we need two more of our ufa to sign before June 1st to get a comp pick for huff
I don't think that matters. They signed a contract here, and if they leave in FA the Jets will be eligible to get a comp pick for each of them. Whether we do or not depends upon how they play for the next team and how many FAs the Jets sign, and the size of their contracts.
