This is a great post, and I have learned a lot in the last few days between our future GM ouchy and this one on just how bad Joe Douglas has been when you get past the obvious stuff.
You know I never really questioned JD early in his tenure. The Adams trade was so good plus the previous GMs so bad, I was basically in JD we trust camp. But that has changed when I actually started analyzing things independently thanks to a lot of great posters on this board. This is why I was livid this last off-season at what I though was absolute incompetent handling of Rodgers trade, draft, OLine, WR, back-up QB, then complete lack of urgency when things were clearly crumbling. Looking back at the Becton vs Wirfs and actually analyzing data available at the time, I cannot believe JD made this pick. Wirfs was All American, All Big Ten, Conference OLineman of the year. He played like an absolute beast against the toughest competition. Becton did not play nearly as well in ACC, a generally weaker conference. He was not considered one of the best OLinemen in the conference. He was good, but no where near Wirfs level. His athleticism made him one of the top prospects, but Wirfs was a great athlete too, basically in par with Becton (9.7 RAS score vs 9.8 for Becton). This was really a no brainer if you just bother to actually analyze these selections based on available data. And I know at the time I didn't bother, but looking at the things having learned over the past few years, it's just so obvious the probability if success was significantly higher for Wirfs. JD just whiffed that one.
Excellent summary of Douglas's failures! Again, I'd be in favor of dumping him based on this track record, but Woody's track record of replacing bad with worse is too strong. And maybe Douglas, after 5 years, is learning some things - unlikely maybe, but I don't see anything else to hope for.
That's the thing though - I highly doubt he learned anything. Why? Because all I hear is that we got unlucky with injuries. He did nothing at the trade deadline. Except ... where is Roger Saffold btw? And granted Rodgers injury was devastating, but that should not effectively end the season in November and make us one of the worst teams and a laughing stock in NFL again. As far as other injuries, we have actually been pretty fortunate where no good players got hurt, aside from AVT. We really only suffered at RG. Everyone keeps getting injured there. Otherwise we have 4 starters available along the OLine. And yes Duane was injured before, but he sucks anyway. It doesn't matter than he got hurt, because as bad as Becton is (who btw stayed healthy surprisingly), he is better than Duane. Imagine if GW got hurt? We would literally have nothing decent at WR at all. The point here is that it is highly unlikely JD learned anything based on what we are hearing. Also - clearly the coaches on offense stink. Are we going to allow JD and Saleh hire 3d set of offensive coaches in 3 years? I mean they did it twice with atrocious results. And Rodgers will get hurt again. Hopefully not season ending but he is going to be 41 next year. We will have someone picked by Saleh (or Hack himself) call plays? I am also worried that because JD's seat is scolding hot he might not make the best decisions for this franchise long term. It is as clear as day that JD/Saleh must go this offseason. Now as far as your argument regarding Woody not being able to pick GMs, it is a valid point. But he did pick Tanny, who was much better than JD. There is a legitimate chance new GM will be significantly better. And we don't need to rebuild, but the new GM does need to fix the OLine and a few other moves, which I think say Philly assistant GM, who spent last 15 years working directly with Howie Roseman should be capable of doing. JD just isn't, and apparently if you listen to Saleh they think they just need to get healthy and that's it. It's time for a change.
What would be worse... Aaron Rodgers going down early next year and another lost season where the Jets finally clean house... or Rodgers comes back, plays the whole season, they go 2 rounds in the playoffs and then he retires and Douglas and Saleh both get extensions?
It doesn't appear there's any chance of getting that change this year. So, let's all join hands and start our own little TGG prayer circle. I'm not a religious man myself, but I'll try anything with this damn team at this point.
The former.... At least we have 1 fun season, because the odds of their replacements sucking as well are pretty high
Can you imagine the promotion campaigns for ticket sales? Woody would be walking around with his shirt open like Bezos.
Bro, it's been 13 years (and will be 14) by the time next year's playoffs roll around. I will absolutely take the playoff run and let those guys have their extensions. It's not like we can assure ourselves that Woody will suddenly make the right choices to replace them.
That’s the concern man. That’s why this year is the year to clean house. I have no faith in this regime to get it right after Rodgers and a potential playoff run. We really letting saleh and JD use another pick at a young QB to develop under Hacketts system? It’s a recipe for disaster. They really need to take a developmental guy in round 3 or 4 this year to sit in the room with Rodgers for 2 years.
This is what I am afraid of- I think the Jets have a real chance at making the playoffs with a healthy Rodgers. But remove Rodgers from the equation- we're in a ton of trouble
I wouldn't even waste a pick on it. Get a decent backup like Minshew and go all in. Trade whatever draft capital you need to for guys who are good at football at positions of need - starting with the O line, continuing with the O line, and then maybe a #1a or a #2 receiver. Douglas' and Bob's seats will be hot starting the year and they have to make the playoffs or they are gone. I think there will be some decisions made that forsake the future to try and win in the next 2 years.
I could totally be reaching here and I probably am, but if you watch back the Rodgers interview with McAffee this week there is a segment when he talks about this regime. His eyes scatter all over the place which normally correlates with someone lying. I hope it's true but just a small observation from watching some of the clips about this regime/staff.
Why would Minshew come here? He has proven he can be a starter next year. He is going to lead the Colts to the playoffs.
He did say some tough decisions need to be made. But generally watching this interview it sounded like he wants these guys back. Now, just because he prefers that scenario does not mean he will be pissed off if it does not happen. I think a lot will depend on next few games. If we lose last home game to Washington then get embarrassed on national tv on Thursday, I think Woody will pull Aaron aside and say something like I want you to be the QB next year, I will get your inputs for the new GM/HC, but for your own sake, we need someone better at the top to improve this team so that you and us can win it next year.
Yeah I picked up on that as well. It seemed like there was some reservations with the staff, but the general consensus I got was these guys are all going to be back. Another problem would be is if they promote Hackett to some Senior Offensive Assistant gig and try to bring in a new OC or elevate someone. That situation would be impossible to fill. I have no idea what they could get if that was to happen. That would be way harder to fill than just cleaning house and starting over.
"Hey, um, Mr. Rodgers, I wanted to run something by you. I'm thinking that maybe, you know, Joe and Bob haven't really done well, and the fans are like, um, like super angry and making fun of us. I wanted to get your thoughts on possibly replacing them and hope that you'll be on board with that because they are hurting the image of the team. What do you say, Mr. Rodgers - btw. um <giggle> may I call you Aaron?"
I'm not going to defend JD's record, or make a case for him to be retained (or not fired). If he's fired, I'm good with that. But I am sick of the eternal rebuilds and starting over. I realize you can't just stick with mediocrity (or worse) just for the sake of stability, but you can't get stability when you blow things up every 3, 4, 5 years. The thing is, I - nor anyone here - really knows what's been going on behind the scenes with the decisions made. Was Douglas really given full control and what we've seen is the result of guy who just isn't good at his job? Or were there some decisions made that he didn't agree with but had to publicly adopt as his own? Probably a combination of these two things. While it was easy for me to accept that Idzik and Maccagnan were just inept and not capable of being good GMs, given Douglas's resume I find that harder to believe. But because he too was a first time GM there was bound to be a learning curve with mistakes, but I had hoped they would be fewer. On balance I think that has been true. But what's disturbing is that some of his mistakes - a continued failure to build a solid OL and to address the QB problem, as well as in general failing to give more priority to the offense - shouldn't still be issues at this point. And most worrisome is that they've actually gotten worse this past year. I somehow do still have a sliver of faith that JD's years with (mostly) winning organizations will begin to pay off in his decision making. IN any case, even though I'd be happy if he were fired, I think he gets to finish his contract here.
Good Post! I totally agree about blowing it up and starting over again. Can't build a winner that way and I believe JD has had more hits than misses, so I would hope he stays. As far as the O-line goes, there just isn't many options out there. The good people are signed and the FAs are not that good as we have painfully discovered. The swing and miss at QB (Wilson) has reverberated severely, hampering the offense the last two years, and now again this year. To me, that is a more important issue than the O-line.
