You kind of proved my point. Yanniks 2 previous contacts (Huffs age years) totaled 3 years $38 million. That's where I expect Huffs contract to be.
Are you talking about the guy who’s been on 5 teams the last 4 years? Im sure none of those 5 teams regret the contract they gave him. /s
except yannick was a full time player with 8-10 sacks every year. huff has been in the league 3 years only started 7 games, plays about 30% of snaps at best and only has 7.5 career sacks. no way is huffs value anywhere near what yannicks was and you think he'll get more based on what? Jacob martin contract is the most likely starting point but a little higher. until huff can play the run and get 8+ sacks and 50-70% snaps, his value won't be near that high
I'm sure they regret but they did GIVE him those contracts at the time. The pass rusher is probably the second most coveted position (maybe LT) and teams will pay for it.
I hear you. We're in disagreement here. I'm thinking that if Huff produces win rates similar to last year, even without the big sack #s, there will be a team willing to pay him on the $10_13 million range.
there isn't a single player in the NFL making 13 million who only plays 1/3rd of the snaps or less (outside of a top tier backup QB maybe). not sure why you'd think huff would be the 1st to get that. Win rates are nice and all, but like anything as snaps go up, the overall rate will go down. it's like saying a WR who averages 30 yards a catch on 5 catches deserves to be paid more then a WR who averages 15 yards a catch on 100 catches. NFL GMs are smart in the way they spend. bryce can't earn double digits until he plays more and shows more. 6-8 mil a year and if I was bryce i'd go to a team on a 1 year prove it deal where i'd get a majority of the snaps and then if he balls out, he'll get paid. a good example is shaq barrett. he was similar to huff. low snap count but high win %. the broncos let him walk and he signed a 1 year prove it deal for 4 mil and posted 19.5 sacks in 2019. then he got tagged in 2020 and still had 8 sacks, then finally got his deal in 2021 for 17mil a year over 4 years. huff will get a prove it deal and a chance to start somewhere maybe but rotational rushers don't get paid that high. the top paid rotaional edge's right now are getting 6ish mil a year. you are saying huff will somehow get double?
I could see a team going 3 years $30 million with an out after 2. Keep in mind it is an absolute monster class next year at edge as presently constructed. I’m going to assume Bosa re-signs, Young gets tagged, Gary re-signs but there’s a lot of ballers out there. That’ll hurt him and maybe help us.
Teams pay speculatively in the NFL though. It’s not like baseball where they have to pay them when they’re 30 for what they did when they were 25-29. I could see a team throw money at him acknowledging the fact that he didn’t get a high enough share of playing time due to rotations and such. Christian Kirk played NFL #3 receiver football his first four years and reset the receiver market.
The salary cap in 2019 was 188m. In 2024 it's projected to be 255m. I'm saying that there will be a GM that will bet on Huff if he produces like he did last year.
he didn't reset the market as in he wasn't the top paid WR, but he did bump up other WR pay. it was also universally known as an awful contract that was the exception not the norm and kinda screwed up negotiations for all teams. the chances of that happening again are slim to none and other GMs were pissed at jax for that. plus jax was in a rare spot of a ton of cap room and not much to spend it on and desperate to get some WR help. Kirk was also 25 with 4 years experience STARTING (started at least 12 games every year of his career) and was coming off his best year of 982 yards. He produced already as a starter, every year, and increased his numbers every year. he was proven and trending up. huff has not. it's a huge difference and of course salaries will go up. and sure some GM will want him, hell probably quite a few, but it depends on the offers. nobody is handing out a long term deal at 12 mil a year. it makes 0 sense for both sides. If huff "bets on himself" he'll take a 1 year prove it deal. if he starts and puts up 12 sacks and his run D is solid at minimum, he'll get 18+ mil on a large deal. If he starts and fails he'll still get 6-8mil on deals to be a 3rd down rusher after. paying a guy 13 mil a year for 3 years who averages 3 sacks a season isn't going to happen. lots of teams have a "huff" on their roster that they overvalue. The cap is going up 27%. the top paid situational rushers are at 6mil. all the other edges over that are starters. so saying huff is the "best situational rusher" would be 6 mil + inflation (we'll say 30% to be round) which is 7.8mil. My guess is if he keeps up what he did last year, he'll leave on a 1 year prove it deal for 8 mil where he'll get enough snaps to make a name for himself and cash in, or he'll wind up learning that he fits a role that can still make good money and have a good career being a 3rd down rusher
I just jumped in but I haven’t seen Lon or anyone argue that it’d be a good savvy move. The argument is merely that it’s not that unrealistic to see someone giving him a couple years and $20-$30 million. He’s 26 and has a great first step with good analytic type pass rush numbers when he is in there. He’s been buried on the chart on the team that invests top 5 salary considerations for the past couple years in his position group. The point with Kirk is that he was paid at the time as a top 10 receiver without ever recording a thousand yard year. All that’s insinuated here is that Huff can get a top 50 contract without a long term commitment to try to nab 8-10 sacks for cheap.
I mean a top 50 edge contract is over 5.5mil so yeah i'd say he can get that easily. top 50 in the NFL? no way QB contracts rile the market so thats like 30 of them ahead of him already. plus the top WRs and DEs all making over 20mil a year. Sure it's possible some GM offers him a crazy deal that he hasn't earned, but it's highly improbable. I mean we put a 2nd round tender on him and not a single GM bit for that. if he isn't worth a 2nd round pick, then GMs don't think he's worth 13mil a year which is what the original claim was. Of course that changes if for some reason something crazy happens and he winds up getting more snaps and putting up 8+ sacks then yeah he could get that. but if he has another season like last with 3 sacks and 30% snaps then no GM is paying 13mil a year for that edit: looked it up and top 50 in the NFL would be over 20mil a year. no way huff gets that top 50 for edge is over 7mil which I think he could get based on inflation (I said 6-8mil originally)
