The problem is that his contract is huge and is something that will count against the CAP for a lot after he is gone. It's not just 1 factor. Also, while some may think he has a chance to make us a SB contender, there is also a chance he will decline, that he will only make us a contender for a year, etc... So, there are a lot of factors in play. It's not that he will likely make us a SB contender for short term, so let's give all this CAP room for years to come and a first round pick. Which is why I ultimately think Favre deal is fair. Next year's pick where it could be 3d or 4th, but if he plays and we win SB, it could be 1st. But if GB is not happy with that and want this year's pick, then no, we cannot offer 1st rounder, even if we feel he is likely to make us contender. We can sweeten it with 4th rounder this year. Also, consider this: Arod is getting paid the most in the League. Even these of us who think he is good, do not feel he is worth this much. Which is also why there is no demand. Overpaid contracts are worth a lot less, and 110 mil is a lot to risk for a 40 year old guy, even if he has a chance to be good. And when there is no demand, the price will also go down. Also imagine if the Jets are off the table. Do you really think GB wants to be paying 110 mils and take on huge CAP hit for 4 years to AR when they have a young guy ready to start? 4th rounder this year and a conditional next year that may go up to 1st if we win a SB is where I think the deal will get done at.
I try to be objective looking at fair compensation for AR but the jets have all the leverage especially now that Lamar wants out of Baltimore. Packers don't want AR, don't want to take the cap hit and surely don't want him on the team this fall. The Packers need to make the deal before the draft for the obvious reason that the Jets have better draft capital this year as opposed to next year. I think the most we should give up is a 2nd this year and conditional picks based on how many seasons AR play along with the metrics he meets this upcoming season. For Packer fans to think they deserve our 13th and more they are just fucking delusional.
I don't think anyone in the league wants to pay Aaron Rodgers, except the Jets. And I agree his value isn't worth more than a 4th. Only the Jets can come up with a really bad idea and then obsess about getting it done.
My guess is that GB is holding out, hoping some other team will come in and offer them more than the Jets. Even if this isn't likely, it plays to their fan base, as they can hope to be seen as not readily giving Rodgers up cheap. At the same time, I think Douglas is holding firm at whatever deal he thinks is fair, again my guess is that it's a 2nd this year, and a conditional next year based on how far we get and how much Rodgers plays, and possibly a player - C. Davis? - thrown is as a sweetener. If these assumptions are true, and if no other team saves GB from their folly, I can see GB holding out until just before the draft before finally accepting JD's offer. Annoying and frustrating because we want to know for sure that either we're getting Rodgers, or we'll be searching for another answer. But we're not in charge. As Emerson said, "Things are in the saddle and ride mankind".
Packer's fans as a group would likely prefer to have Aaron Rodgers play QB for them this year and next. It's the Packer's FO that have the duty of doing what is right for the team's future even if it makes the team worse this year as Love settles in. For them this is a repeat of the Favre situation in 2008. Fans and FO. For the Jets it is not a repeat of 2008. Rodgers contract is much worse from an overall cash and cap perspective and we don't have an OL that is likely to withstand the pressures of an NFL season. Our exposure in this situation is potentially much worse than our exposure in 2008 was. And we wound up blowing everything up after 2008 and going a different direction even with much less exposure. Imagine we make a big deal for Rodgers with non-conditional picks and the JD and Saleh get fired after this year because of whatever. The next regime will come into a situation with a 40 year old QB short picks and cap space and I bet you can't guess the worst case scenario we wind up with running the team in that situation.
I posted this on Facebook and meant to post it here..... Brian Gutekunst is a bad GM. He sucks at his job and he's starting to realize it. He realizes now that he let too many players leave in free agency, he's squandered draft choices, and he's overvalued the players he has selected. The talent and/or value isn't there. Now that he realizes he sucks at his job he's trying to play catch up. He's trying to catch up in one fail swoop by price gouging the Jets and Joe Douglas. He's a dingbat that simply hasn't done his job as well as JD has. Regardless, when you look at the Packers roster you can easily see that the cupboards are looking pretty bare. They do NOT have a very talented roster right now. It's their fault and no single trade is going to fix or overcome their poor business practices. The Jets should NOT, under any circumstances, cave to the fantasy demands of a less than satisfactory GM and Packers nation. Let the Packers drown in their own stupidity. They may think they have the upper hand right now but come draft time they'll have a very different mindset.
It's a semi accurate comparison. I don't think Gutekunst is as bad as Macagnan. Macagnan was a legend of ineptitude but the comparison isn't as ridiculous as one may think. Either way you feel about it though, the Packers problem is not the Jets problem. We've had quite a few bad GM's here as well. We finally have a guy in house that knows what he's doing. As a Jets fan i couldn't be happier and I have ZERO sympathy for the Packers.....
It's possible the inept GB GM is playing our even-more-inept owner. He knows Woody is a star-fucker and desperately wants Rodgers in his trophy case. The GB GM is making outrageous trade demands that he knows Douglas would never agree to and is sticking to his guns. He's hoping that Woody will eventually panic and order Douglas to meet GB's demands. Maybe it's time to send Woody on a darkness retreat until this whole thing is resolved.
This is certainly a possibility, and the biggest danger to Douglas working out a good deal. EDIT: And if I were Douglas, I'd tell Woody that if he meddles in this, I'd quit.
This deal will be done before draft day I believe. Like stated before they are lacking talent all over; THE last thing they want to do is allow this draft to pass without any capital from Rodgers for this years draft. Plus on top of that all the media attention would x2/3/4 on their situation. If they truly want to move forward with Love and not have him request a trade because of the possibility Rodgers shows to camp they will have to move quick. Clock is ticking. Whatever deal JD has proposed I hope stays and waits for GB to Bite.
How has he overvalued his draft picks? He‘s drafted a bunch of good players and retaining your drafted players is just what Green Bay does. Jaire Alexander, Rashaan Gary, Elgton Jenkins, Runyan, Josh Myers, Watson, the two-headed RB combo they have, etc. They’re like the Ravens and Steelers. They don’t deviate from their organizational process much. They have the best record in the NFL from 2019-2021. Rodgers had a broken thumb last year and they moved their best receiver and still finished 8-9.
Come on guys. Gutekunst built a roster that won 13 games 3 out of the last 4 years. JD has won 13 games combined over the last 3 years. His drafts have also been very solid including late round steals, several pro bowlers, and he has made some great FA moves over the last few years. He did give in to Rodgers and gave him a stupid contract, but Rodgers has a way of making everything about him.
The difference between the fan bases is incredible. Most Packers fans think they need to get 2 1s. Anything less than a 1 & a 2 would be viewed as a terrible trade. Most Jets fans are saying no even to a 2. If the Jets trade 13, Jets fans will be outraged. I think ultimately it will be a 2 this year & a conditional next year that most likely turns into a 3 or 2. I also am guessing the deal happens on draft day, or the day before. That's when the Packers have to cave. Next years picks are worth a lot less, not to mention the Jets will be better so the pick should be a lot higher than 13.
Well, if you believe in all of those players so staunchly perhaps you could explain why a 4-13 team from the prior season went into Green Bay and curb stomped the Packers in their house? Sure, they've stuck with the players they have drafted for better or worse. Hell, Mike Macagnan did the same damn thing. I'm sorry but sticking with the players you drafted is absolutely no indication whatsoever that you had a good draft. EVERY GM sticks with their draft choices. Now where exactly Brian Gutekunst ranks in the annals of GM talent remains to be seen but I do not believe that he's prepared for the predicament he finds himself in right now. Sinking from 13-4 to 8-9 is the definition of a bad offseason and bad preparation for what was ahead.
