"No way JD can gamble on Sam as our starting QB" Actually, keeping Sam is the safe bet. Using our #2 overall on a rookie QB is his career gamble of his life. If JD keeps Sam and it was the wrong call, then JD will have more 3 years to fix it, at least. But if JD blows our #2 overall on a rookie QB who ends up stinking (or topping out at 6-10, 7-9, 8-8 type seasons ala Andy Dalton) then JD will most likely get fired and struggle to get another GM job. I get we have the #2 overall, which is a huge opportunity. But having the #2 overall has no bearing on whether or not there's a FQB sitting there at the spot in the draft. None what-so-ever. So saying "we have the #2, this is our chance, we HAVE to strike!!!" could be the worse mistake we make this decade. But....it could also be the BEST pick we've made in 50 years. Say Zack Wilson is the best QB not named Trevor. So Zack would be our pick IF we go that direction. JD has to be as absolutely, positively sure as he can be that Zack Wilson will become our FQB. If JD has any doubts, even serious doubts, there no way he can go in that direction. He'll be forced to stick with Sam, try and develop Sam in our new offense with better oline and better weapons, and be prepared to try again in 22 or 23 if need be. Look, JD would LOVE for Zack to grade out as a FQB. JD would LOVE to draft Zack and start over with a new franchise, and new start, with HIS QB. But JD will not allow himself to become blinded with Zack Love that he overlooks things that might point to Zack not being the answer. Not when he still has Sam and can try again next year.
Actually, the QB from NC - Sam Howell - is very highly rated, some rate him higher than they did Lawrence. And there's a couple of others. That said, do you think the Jets will be drafting at #1 or #2 next year? Very unlikely, which means they'd have to burn the draft capital they were trying to use for other purposes in order to TRY to trade up, which of course there's no guarantee that they'd find a willing trade partner. Personally I hope JD uses #2 on Wilson, but there are other ways to get a QB besides drafting one. The ideal situation is that you draft a Mahomes and then don't have to worry about QB for a decade or more, but there are other ways. I'm not saying that's what I prefer, but that's the reality and we don't know what Douglas is thinking.
I'm curious, who rates Howell higher than Lawerence? I haven't seen anything even remotely resembling that.
No, it isn't comical. What's comical is people thinking Sam with his lousy footwork, poor decision making, major issues with TOs, inconsistency, and bad accuracy was a better prospect than Fields, Wilson or Lance. In addition, Sam regressed his second year as a starter. Fields got better, and once Wilson healed, he got a LOT better.
The bold is spot on. No one in their right minds tries to build around a "game manager." If JD's and Saleh's goals are to have a game manager at QB, then they aren't the right men for the job. There is no way possible that they see the current available QB as not being a good fit for us. No way. All 4 of the top QBs would be a scheme fit. Any GM that has a chance to draft a potential FQB, and passes on it and then has to look for other "options" down the road is an idiot imo, and has no business being the GM of an NFL team.
Yes, he is, but I'm confident that he doesn't think backward and have crazy notions like fans do. He knows that his career hangs on getting a FQB and that he's not going to be given forever to turn things around. If he decides to roll with Sam, doesn't take a QB, and Sam has another bad year, JD could lose the power and respect he has gained from the Johnsons. His job could suddenly become on thin ice. Most of the fanbase is against keeping Sam and is ready to move on. They aren't swayed by sentimentality and pity for Sam. If JD keeps Sam and Sam sucks, the fanbase will quickly turn on JD, the Johnsons will take notice, and JD will be out of a job sooner rather than later. He knows that. He's not going to risk his career on the 10-20% chance that Darnold can miraculously improve without sitting and spending major time working on his issues. Get real.
Sorry, but I completely disagree. No one is putting the "entire failure" on Sam. That's a strawman argument. You don't know that the majority is on the shitty coaching and talent around him, either. It easily could be 50-50 or worse in the opposite direction. Other QBs have succeeded in similar circumstances. To be sure a significant portion of his problems probably HAS been the shitty coaching and team around him, but even with that, Sam has looked good at times, and downright awful at others. By his 3rd season, Sam ought to be able to play with a pretty high degree of consistency. He should know not to run out of bounds or take a sack instead of throwing the ball away. He should know not to throw the ball into double or triple coverage. His accuracy should be better, especially on deep balls. That's mostly on Sam, if not 100%. I'll give him some leeway there, because Sam's head may have been swimming so much with learning new plays each week under Gase, or the offense so complex, or Sam's confidence simply being shot ever since the "seeing ghosts" game. It doesn't matter how much athletic talent he has, if he doesn't have the football IQ, the mental toughness, or the basic intelligence to be able to focus/put together, and use that talent. He had a late start to playing QB, but after 3 years in the NFL, that handicap should be significantly erased, if not gone completely. If not, then much of the blame lies on Sam, even with bad coaching from the Jets. He could have reached out to other QBs, changed his private QB coach if he didn't think Jordan Palmer was helping him that much, and/or done whatever was necessary to improve, not sit back passively and be a victim. I have neither seen nor heard of any efforts by Sam to do this, and in fact have read that he rejected a change Palmer suggested because he felt comfortable the way he was doing things. To be fair, just because I/we haven't seen or heard any evidence of that, doesn't mean that there hasn't been an effort on Sam's part to reach out to others and get additional help. I have also acknolwedged that that report of Sam refusing to change could have been wrong. Sadly, until concrete evidence comes forward to the contrary, I have come to the conclusion that whatever the reason, he probably will never come close to maximizing his talent and/or reach any kind of level of consistency. I think the very idea of "winning with Sam" is an oxymoron and a joke. Even if Sam has worked very hard to improve and fix his flaws, that should still be a major red flag. If he hasn't been able to fix them in 3 years working hard, chance are that he never will. I find it hard to believe that Bates, Gase and his pet OC are THAT bad that they would teach wrong concepts, wrong fundamentals, and/or that they simply wouldn't know the correct fundamentals, but if that is true then that makes the owners of the Dolphins and Jets look even stupider and more incompetent for hiring them in the first place. I don't think there's any realistic chance that JD is going to roll with Sam and not draft a QB in the top 10, and most likely, one at #2. Thus, my statements regarding drafting a QB are not "wishful thinking." They are 100%, rock solid confidence that JD doesn't think like fans do. I am confident that he knows his career hangs in the balance with this decision, that the odds are heavily stacked against Sam, and by extension against the team if JD decides to pick up the 5th year option, or even just roll with Sam, "hope" he develops this year, but if not find a QB somehow in 2022. Be it cap considerations, the way Sam has played and regressed (as he did in college...hence a pattern), the quality of the QBs in this draft, where we'll likely be drafting in 2022, the lack of depth and quality in the 2022 QB draft class, re-setting the QB cap, to the additional draft capital he can get from trading Sam, or whatever, it makes no sense from any rational objective point of view to keep Sam and trust that he will put it together quickly this year. Zero. Sense. I believe that JD is the right man for the job. I also believe that no GM in his right mind would decide to roll with Sam, unless he was blinded with emotion and sentimentality, and ultimately, I don't believe that JD will be. So my comments are all based in confidence in the knowledge and expertise of JD and what I believe any rational, competent NFL GM would do.
No they didn't. That was never their intent. They drafted a QB or QBs, but none of them panned out. They had no choice but to go ahead and build their team. They got extremely lucky that Brady became availble and was willing to sign with them, and that he was able to bring along Gronk and Brown. To say that was by design, is not only flat our wrong, but laughable.
All four of the top QBs in this draft would be a great fit for our system. They're not being a good fit isn't even a possibility. I trust JD to make the right decision, but that right decision means either trading for Watson or taking a QB, not rolling with Sam and trading down. The chances of that working are minimal. If one objectively looks at the situation from all angles rationally and realistically, I dont' believe that there's any way one would choose to roll with Sam and pass on taking a QB. IMO no GM, unless he's Mac/Idzik level incompetent would choose to roll with Sam and pass on getting one of Watson, Fields, Wilson or Lance this year. For that matter, there's a very small chance that even Lawrence could be sitting there at #2. Urban Meyer is known to be arrogant and stubborn. Unless the Jacksonville owner overrules him, he could decide he likes Wilson better.
JD isn't going to force a pick. You can rest assured in that. Taking Wilson or Fields at #2 would NOT be forcing the pick.
Sorry, but Lance isn't "deadly accurate." I've watched a lot of video on him now, and he misses a lot of throws. He's nowhere near as bad as Allen was, but he still has a LOT of work that he needs to do on his accuracy, touch and ball placement. Even when he's connecting on passes, I've seen more than a few that will probably be interceptions if not pick 6s in the NFL.
IMO there's no accurate way to account for that "Perfect Shit Storm." At best, one would only be hoping and making an educated guess. No NFL GM should be making decisions in that way. They have to go by the way that Sam has played, made little progress since college, still has many of the same flaws, and by the odds/percentages that he would be able to quickly turn things around this year. All the facts and odds are stacked against it working out. There's a small chance of it working, and a huge chance of it not working, and MUCH to lose if it doesn't work.
I respectfully disagree. While each situation and individual are different, there have been enough QBs and variances in situations, that one can determine some reasonable statistics/odds of a QB being able to turn it around quickly, or if at all. This becomes easier or more difficult depending upon the reasons why the QB has struggled/failed. If Sam had problems with accuracy only when under heavy pressure, then one could say with confidence that the problem lies mainly, or maybe even solely with the OL and/or the play design/calling (plays taking too long to develop, and that don't get the ball out quickly). The problem is that Sam's accuracy has been just as bad when he has had a clean pocket. Similarly, it would be one thing if Sam was able to see the field, could read Ds, and consistently made good decisions. The thing is, he doesn't. Ability to see the field has little, if anything to do with coaching or having a lousy team around him. The same goes for reading Ds. Coaching could help some there, but I have to assume that the Jets' CSs have worked with Sam in that regard as has Jordan Palmer, Sam's private QB Coach, and he still hasn't improved. Similarly, he doesn't make good decisions. That is most inexcusable and the most worrisome. There's no way that any QB in his 3rd year in the NFL, if he has any intelligence at all, should run out of bounds or take a sack rather than throwing the ball away, or throw into double or triple coverage, yet Sam continues to do that. I'm certain that probably his HS Coaches, his college coaches and his coaches in the NFL have talked with him and coaching about this, yet he continues to make the same dumb mistakes. Then there's his footwork, which results in poor accuracy. Along with making good decisions, those are basic minimums for an NFL caliber QB. If he can't make accurate throws from a clean pocket and make good decisions, then he has no place in the NFL imo. Again, I'm certain that his footwork has been addressed. Why is it still so bad? With the major problems that Sam has being self-inflicted rather than caused by a lousy team around him (it's not like his receivers constantly drop the ball or can't get open) or by poor coaching, I see little chance of his succeeding with the Jets or anywhere unless he can sit for a year or two and allow a CS to tear him down to scratch and rebuild him. I don't see his being willing to do that or any team being willing to do that. So at best, he will probably remain an inconsistent QB who will frustrate his HC. They'll like him because he's a great kid and he tries hard. While the Shanahan system might help make things easier for Sam in terms of reading the opposing defense and decision making, a better OL might help him panic less, and bigger, more athletic WRs might better be able to haul in his wild throws, I just don't see him ever coming close to reaching the potential we all hoped he had when he was drafted.
That's not necessarily true. A lot of times people project what they think onto someone else. I could be guilty of that. JD may not be nearly as sharp as I think he is. Colorado could be right that Ozzie Newsome didn't care that much about QBs, and now JD doesn't. They may not know him that well, or know his thinking at this particular point in time or about this set of QBs vs Sam Darnold. Too, since he likes to build consensus, it's possible that he could be swayed one way or the other by Saleh and LaFleur. Saleh and LaFleur have no allegiance to Sam, and no reason to stick with him. It will be interesting to see what he does. The one thing that is consisten with the Jets is drama and tension within the fanbase. LOL
You're right that it's not just about 2021. JD has to think about the future. He doens't have Sam under contract in the future. Taking a gamble on Sam is a sucker bet. What sense does it make to trade down for a haul of picks this year, then next year, be drafting lower because of the infusion of talent from FA and the draft this year, and then turn around and burn even more picks over the next 2-3 years to try to trade up and get a QB. Even then he may find no team willing to trade down. Let's look at the negatives. If he takes a QB this year and that QB busts, it will hurt, but it will only cost one 1st round draft pick. If he waits and has to trade up for a QB, and that QB busts, then it could 2-3, maybe even 4 1st round draft picks and more. Either way, unless that QB showed Hackenberg-like incompetence, and they could immediately see that it was a mistake, they'd probably give him at least 2-3 years, maybe even 4 before moving on. So if the QB fails this year, we might be able to move on by 2024 or 2025 at the latest. If we wait until next year, then not only would we lose a lot more, but we'd probably have to wait until 2025 or 2026 before moving on. I don't know about you, but I have no interest in waiting any longer than necessary to find a FQB and our QB of the future, and have no desires to pay more than necessary to get that QB. Thus, it makes no sense to wait until next year. This is the year to take a QB. There's a number of positive reasons to do that this year besides the cost.
The more I think about this, the more it makes sense to trade down and accumulate picks and quality starters. #2 this year is insanely valuable. A trade should get us at least an extra 1 and 2 in 2022 and a bunch this year. Worst case Sam is horrible and we have a top 5 pick along with 2 other first round picks, second, thirds etc. If Sam is actually ok in the Flynn/Shanahan system we can trade him then. He will be worth more than the 2nd round pick we can get this year. Over the years 2021 and 2022 we can get 10-12 high picks. Thats building a team. I like the idea of trading for Watson. But the long build could make a way stronger team for a real playoff run in 2023-2024.
