If We’re building an O around a QB from scratch, That obviously will take a yr or 2 from a roster perspective. As such I think highest ceiling has to come into discussion.To me,far & away Lance has the best upside between he,Fields & Wilson.I also think you could formulate gameplans around his current holes,work w the skillls he already has & still put up alot of points & win games. Hes instinctual, a legit ball carrying threat,can make big time 3rd level throws & is extremely effective in the RZ. Only 1 int his entire college playing career. For all the talk of the lower level competition,that also means lower level surrounding cast. Watch his tape. Pass pro not always great.His weapons have left at least 8 more TDs by way of drop or not running under perfectly thrown deep balls. For all intensive purposes NDSU has a track record w NFL QBs AND Lance played against the likes of James Madison,Central Arkansas & Delaware which is about as stiff competition as you see for that level. Hes had to throw into tight windows,hes had to evade pressure,hes had to do alot of it on his own Ken O’Brien,Steve Mcnair.Joe Flacco.Carson Wentz.Im not worried about Lance coming from FCS
Good points. I don't hate a scenario where we trade down a bit and get Lance. If he works out we have the potential to gain a lot of talent very quickly with all the picks. We'd probably be able to get 1 or 2 additional first round picks by moving from #2 into the early-middle part of the first round.
this. you have to make your eval and trust it. depending on the conference et cet... doesnt seem correct to me...
Kurt brings up a log of good points about upside. That's why I am not even sure Trey lasts until mid of first round. There are already numerous mocks that have him going top 10. After he does his pro day, and other pre draft activities, he may be top 7 or who knows, perhaps higher. After all, Wentz went top 5. All it takes is for a team to want a QB with high upside, and he will be off the board. If we trade back, it cannot be into mid first. With all that said, I disagree about Lance having higher upside than Fields. The argument of weaker competition/weaker supporting cast only goes so far. There are levels to this game, and playing in the higher League matters a lot. I also saw athletic measurements of Fields and Lance after HS, and Fields was faster and had higher vertical, and was a top athlete in his class. That's why I don't think Lance is more athletic than Fields, but they are close. Also, Trey threw 300 passes in his entire career. He missed last season, while Fields went to the NC title game, beating Lawrence in the process. It is very important to hit on the QB this year. With Lance, there is a high upside, but there is also a lot of risk. 3d tier competition and 300 total passes are a HUGE concern. If we focus on the best QB for the Jets, Fields brings just as high upside, also good size, athletic, strong arm, etc, but a lot less risk. That is why he will be #2 pick in the draft. If we try to get some value here, trade back, we may end up with Mac Jones. The only trade the guarantees Wilson or Lance is if we trade back maybe to #5. MAYBE #7. And 7 won't guarantee Lance. We need to be very careful while trying to maximize value, while reducing the chance of getting a QB with highest chance of success. I would not play around with it.
I see more risk in Fields coming from a gimmicky offensive system that has never translated well to the NFL for QBs & being surrounded by superior talent 95% of the time. Hate to say it,but judging on programs alone i prefer a QB from NDSU over Ohio State. Sad but true. Fields maybe the better overall athlete. Lance is just alittle bigger & smoother for my tastes. I also like him as a ball carrier better despite Fields theoretically having better measurables. I find Lance more instinctive,better delivery,quicker decision maker & he definitely has the better deep ball. I see more NFL level dynamic throws from Lance than Fields.Many of Fields great throws are across his body and/or after having 6-7 seconds to scan the field & wait for a guy to come open.Those plays dont often translate to the NFL. Would be curious to know how many carries Lance had to go along w those limited # of throws as well as how many drop backs.
Excellent posts. Your suggestion of Lance might bring much-needed salve to the burn of losing out on Lawrence. I'm particularly intrigued by the idea of trading back from pick 2 and then taking Lance. For example, Cincinnati seems highly motivated to take a tackle like Sewell. Would you be for a deal with Cincinnati so that we could take Lance at pick 5? Considering that Sewell would be Cincinnati's pick, we could take Lance or possibly one of Fields or Wilson at pick 5, and still pick up additional picks to build the rest of our team.
This was a big concern of mine but I read a lengthy breakdown of tOSU offense under Day and it is apparently a lot closer to a pro system than when Haskins was there. Less mesh concepts, more typical NFL route trees with multiple progressions.
I like all the positives you note about Lance, but I'm concerned about the fact that he played in a less competitive conference and he only had 300+ passes, and also that he only played one game this season. I'm no expert, and could certainly be wrong, but I don't get the feeling that he's a Mahomes but then again there's only one of them. I share your concern about OSU QBs, although Fields seems like a whole different animal. I really liked how he rose to the challenge against Clemson, and he did pretty well against the semi-pro Alabama team even with broken ribs and losing his #1 RB on the first play. At this point I'm going to defer to you and other better talent evaluators and of course Douglas. I do want them to take a QB but I'm not so sure that's what JD wants to do. We'll see.
Yeah.And only even bringing up OSU bc if we’re gonna be critical of Lance’s level of competition its only fair to look at The whole picture of Fields surroundings. In the end i dont care where they went to school beyond understanding the optics of what the prospect had around him & who he played against in order to approach the eval properly. That said i do lean towards guys who do more w less.
I look at the one game Lance played this past season. By his standards a poor showing that did expose the areas he needs work.But central Arkansas is a very athletic team & they literally dominated NDSU’s OL,RBs & WRs. Lance put the team on his back & just made big play after big play.Wasnt always pretty along the way but they lose that game by 3 TDs & likely get shut out w.o Lance.Instead he still put up gawdy stats & his team won going away. If you’re carrying 11 while the 10 around you are getting dominated does it matter if hes at NDSU or Purdue?
chicken dinner talent reveals itself see Texans and Watson this year W-L is 4-12 70% comp 4800+ yds 33td 7INT
Fair point. I could see where Douglas could trade back a bit and take Lance, as well as keeping Darnold.
That is an interesting possibility, so let's dive into it a bit more. Lance or Wilson might still be there at #5. However, I am not sure that BOTH Lance and Wilson will still be there at #5 for us to pick whomever JD rated higher. JD would have to rate all these 3 guys pretty equally to make this trade. Say Bengals trade for #2, and take Sewel as you suggest. Then Miami comes with #3. With Fields on the board, and Sewel not there, do they move on from Tua? They are basically missing a QB from being a really great team. I think Fields is a way better prospect than Tua is. Or they just trade back to say #7 and give Fields to Detroit and gain more assets. Either way, Fields will likely be gone at #3 in this case. Then you have Atlanta, which will also likely pick a QB to groom. Now, would they take Wilson or Lance? As Kurt mentioned, Lance has a very high ceiling. They can afford not to even play him at all first year. Then we end up with QB4 in this draft. Which is fine, if JD really thinks Wilson is real deal. But I am concerned about Wilson's injury on both shoulders, size, and level of competition, the fact he only played well one year. If, like Kurt, JD feels Wilson is a big drop off from Fields/Lance, then trading to #5, while nets you other assets, drops you off at the most important one (QB), and under no circumstances should be considered.
Well Todd Bowles was a wax figure for one. Saleh wasn't my first choice but I'm happy with the hire. LaFleur coming over as OC is an important component of it.
