I'm pretty sure at this point that half the league will fight to pick him up off of the street when the Jets show him the door in 2022. He's been mentally defeated by the circumstances, kind of like a mental version of the physical beatdown that destroyed David Carr. Only a few teams in football were capable of totally destroying his value before he finished his third season and he found one of them.
In addition to the fact that I haven't given up on Sam yet. Given what you've said here (which I agree with) shouldn't we have slight reservations about taking Lawrence and throwing him right into the same situation? I guess I'm just a little skeptical that the Jets will draft Trevor Lawrence and all of our other problems are going to melt away like lemon drops.
That's assuming, though, that we do throw Lawrence into the same situation. We're going to have a ton of cap space and a large amount of draft capital to dramatically improve the situation for Lawrence quickly. The O-line will continue to be upgraded, more weapons will be brought in, etc. They could (and should) also either resign Flacco or go after another veteran QB to come in and hold down the fort until Lawrence is ready.
The guy needs a change of scenery. Maybe a "good" coach can help him with his poor mechanics and spend some time in the film room the way BB did with Tom. he certainly needs it...
He doesn't need to be. The veteran QB FA market isn't that good, so the pickings will be somewhat slim. We'd need somebody to just come in and give Lawrence a real competition in training camp and to, if not beaten out by Lawrence, take the reigns of the offense while Lawrence gets himself ready. It would be nice for this to be someone open to mentoring Lawrence, but it doesn't have to be that.
If they draft Lawrence and put him into the same situation as Darnold, they deserve to never win another game. But it won't be the same situation - as long as they fire Gase. The OL will be improved - it already is - and the WR corps will be better - it already is, and there will be improvements via FA and the draft this year and next. Of course, if they do the SOJ thing and keep Gase, all bets are off. As for giving up on Darnold, I tried to support him, but frankly he is not a FQB. His mechanics are too erratic, and his psyche has been broken. As soon as he fumbled today I KNEW he was going to choke. Yes, he did come back somewhat, but he'd already caused too much damage by that point. And that Hail Mary pas at the end should show you everything you need to move on - he was 10 yards short on that pass, putting everything he had on it. I don't know how much of that is due to arm strength, or poor platform, or both, but when was the last time you saw Sam complete a deep ball? If he can be salvaged at all, let some team with great talent and coaching take on that task. This team can't afford to invest any more in him.
Sam Darnold had a real timing problem with the Jets. The team was largely depleted of resources and was being run by a guy who didn't understand NFL competitive actions. That guy had the 6 pick in the NFL draft in a draft that certainly would produce a 6 pick quality QB and yet he traded 3 high second round picks to move up 3 slots so he could maybe get the guy he really wanted, although he didn't know that for a fact when he made the move. He was playing into the gambler's ruin when he did that and he ruined us in the process. Then he picked an interior defensive lineman with his next high pick the following year, ignoring the weakness of the offensive infrastructure he had around his young very pricey QB. His high second round pick that year was... traded the previous season to bet on his QB pick. There were reasons to believe that Sam Darnold would have trouble adjusting to the NFL aside from the personnel deficit around him. He was certain that he did not need to fix aspects of his physical performance, such as a hitch in his motion as he came over the top. His footwork was not particularly good and he did not do a good job of disguising where the throw was going to go, leading to a lot of DB's jumping routes on him for pick 6's and near picks. However he clearly had something special which is why he was so highly rated coming out of USC. He looked like he had *it*. The timing though was really bad for him with the situation the Jets were in and he got disabled a couple of times early in the season and had trouble progressing under the weight of all of the above. Trevor Lawrence will have much better timing when he joins the Jets. The team has been stockpiling high picks that can be used to support him. There are better assets in key positions, like LT and OL in general. The GM he is going to get picked by has a pretty good idea of what works in talent acquisition. If Douglas continues to operate on the patterns he has established so far it is almost inevitable that the Jets will improve season over season for awhile. Instead of a threadbare roster with a few splashy free agents and failing draft picks we're likely to see an improving roster with better picks and complementary free agents brought in to bridge gaps. Probably most importantly Lawrence is a much better prospect than Darnold was 3 years ago and he will not have to start right away unless the Jets think he is ready to go. The people doing the decision-making on ready to go are likely to be much more competent than the people pulling the switch on Darnold his rookie year. It's easy to see the Jets losing double digit games next year but with a plan that will reverse that in short order. Lots of good teams have done that in the past. They've traded their Herschel Walkers instead of signing the Leveon Bells that looked like such a tempting quick fix. They've drafted their Michael Irvins and their Reggie Waynes instead of signing a #2 WR under the illusion that paying him like a #1 would make him a #1. They've built a great OL and found a workhorse TE in the draft instead of having to use washed up vets and street meat in those roles. They managed this because they drafted well and avoided trading up in the draft and losing compound future value (same thing as compound interest - it's a bitch) in the process. Just because the Jets did literally everything wrong around the Darnold acquisition and development process doesn't mean the same has to be true for Lawrence. Odds are they'll get it right this time.
So you would eschew signing a Godwin, Smith Schuster, Golladay, or Robinson? Not saying you're wrong, just curious.
I would not try to sign a #1 WR in free agency, because none of those get to free agency. I would not overpay for a #2 WR in free agency for several reasons: 1. It's not that hard to find a #2 WR in the draft if you know what you are doing. That's the cheap way to get the job done. 3rd or 4th round can get you that easily. 2. If you overpay a #2 WR in free agency imagine what that is going to do to the negotiations with the #1 WR you draft when their contract comes due. 3. #2 WR's are much less stable than #1 WR's from year to year. They retire earlier and they have more ups and downs. The guy you think will be a stable part of your team for 3 or 4 years may not be able to beat out the guy you draft next year. However you still owe him guaranteed money because you thought he was worth it. Nobody is worth big guarantees in the world of NFL football. Guys that aren't true stars aren't worth anything from year to year unless they keep humping as hard as they can every down (here is where the Inches speech from Any Given Sunday fits) and when you pay them a lot of guaranteed money you seriously impede their drive to keep humping hard on every down.
Today is not the day to lead with Anti Sam sentiment he was good enough to win that’s all you can ask for Not to mention calling him vulgar names is pretty weak he’s an elite athlete millionaire and no one posting here can sniff that
Agreed. Sam isn't cut out to be the guy here, and we should move on from him in the draft. But he's still a good person, and I hope he succeeds in the NFL going forward.
Douglas needs to trade him. If we hold on to him for another year, we won't get anything for him. Nobody will trade for him when he's approaching the end of his contract with the Jets, as there's no way that they'll pick up the fifth year option with Lawrence on the roster. Trading him needs to be the top priority behind hiring a new coach. Add more to the already nice amount of draft capital we have and then work on putting pieces around Lawrence.
Sam Darnold is fairly likely to be the opening day QB for the Jets next season. If Trevor Lawrence holds out (which is always a possibility) Darnold may get a Brees-like second shot at starting for the Jets next season. Little-remembered fact: Drew Brees started 31 of the 32 games in Philip Rivers first two seasons with the Chargers. Rivers wasn't hurt - Brees just found his mojo at exactly the right time to keep the job despite Mister #4 overall pick sitting in the QB room with him. Not that I think Darnold would keep the QB job for long even if Lawrence wasn't ready to go for some reason at the start next year but Brees kept the job in SD until a torn labrum in the playoffs made him a risky keep.
I guess it depends on what the Jets can get in trade and how Lawrence approaches getting drafted by the Jets. I see a lot of scenarios where the offers for Darnold are underwhelming and Lawrence treats the Jets initial approaches like something the cat dragged in the door. Then there's the possibility that Lawrence's representatives inform the Jets to trade Lawrence while they can during the draft to get best value - similar to Archie Manning telling the Chargers to drop dead when they drafted Eli. Thankfully Lawrence doesn't have a heavyweight in his corner like Eli and Elway had. Given he's a Junior he's not likely to have Dabo Sweeney playing that role for him next year but Sweeney could make the offer if Lawrence returns for his Senior year to play the heavy role for the 2022 draft.
Although I don't think it would be crazy to keep Sam even if they draft his replacement, I doubt that JD will do that. That's a lot of money, even if he doesn't re-sign him. I think Douglas will look for a competent, cheaper, vet to push Trevor and show him the ropes.
As long as Gase is gone and we hire a coach Lawrence approves of, I don't think Lawrence will refuse to play here; he's going to a bad team regardless, and this one at least has a lot of draft picks that can provide him with good support going forward.
