Definitely. Which is why it is kind of impressive (pathetic?) that in all these high passing total years lately that nobody has managed to best it. I think Sam has it in him to do it though and soon if he's able to play all the games and gets a little bit more time/protection from his OL. Also in his favor is that Gase seems to favor passing which moves the odds a little bit more in favor. I predict he gets it year 3 although not by much and as you've kind of noted breaking that record by today's standards might be solid and impressive but hardly spectacular. I think good realistic chance he throws 4008 sometime in 2020.
Yeah, all predictions should have been thrown out the window after that news came out. He bounced back and had a solid second half to the season. Hopefully he plays a full 16 games next year and is healthy while doing so.
Even his first few seasons, when the chips were down Elway would put the offense on his back and carry them down the field. Sam has never carried us, he simply contributes. At this point Sam more closely reminds me of a young Joe Flacco. Flacco won a SB, but he was a long ways from being Elway.
I'm too young to have seen Elway play, but did he ever have an offensive line as dysfunctional as the Jets did this year? One of three offensive lines in history to give up 50+ sacks and average 3.3YPC or less in a single season. Also, Elway had 4 years as a starter in college, while Darnold had just under 2 seasons of college experience. It's very clear that what Sam needs the most besides some help on the offense, is experience. String together drives, learn to take a checkdown rather than chuck it downfield. Sam's only 22 years old, he's got plenty of room for growth.
To be honest few teams have ever had an offensive line as poor as the Jets were this year. Some of the Cleveland teams in the 80's would be the only thing that pops into my mind as comparable. The Colts were pretty damn awful for a few seasons early on with Andrew Luck too which is why they don't even have him anymore. To be honest Darnold doesn't remind me much at all of John Elway. Elway was borderline perfect as a physical QB template. Elway also had a tendency to pull the chestnuts out of the fire and find a way to will his team to wins when they were all but dead and buried. Sam certainly hasn't done much of that yet... if any. And also while Darnold certainly has arm strength, actually connecting on long passes hasn't seemed to be his forte thus far. Darnold is more of a mid range sniper than a long bomb howitzer like Elway kind of was.
Try one of only three teams in NFL history to give up 50+ sacks and average 3.3 yards per carry or less, the other two teams are the 2002 Texans and the 2007 Chiefs. Take out the one game against Philly when Luke Falk just stood in the pocket like a statue, the Jets OL gave up 41 sacks, still not a good number. Darnold was sacked, hit, threw the ball away, or had the ball batted at the line on 16% of his dropbacks. Obviously there is more to throwing it away than just pressure, but if the OL could block longer than receivers would be getting open, especially with Darnold's ability to extend plays.
Why was everyone so loathe to predict how many games he'd play in? Quarterbacks missing games for one reason or another is common. How many QBs played all sixteen games this season in the NFL? Edited to add: Football Database says it was 15. Four guys in the top 32 of starts played as few as eight. The average number of starts for those guys was 13.875. (In 2018 it was 13.844) https://www.footballdb.com/stats/qb-seasons.html?sort=s
This is more an indictment of the Jets than it is a compliment for Darnold… Sam is the only Jets quarterback other than Josh McCown to throw for over 60% completion in the last decade.
I didn’t do terribly with this prediction. I gave Darnold 3,500 yards which I think he hits if it weren’t for the...ya know...dirty mouth syndrome. I gave him 28 TDs which I was off by. INTS I gave him 15. My best call was that I said he would have a 4 TD game this season but that he would also have a couple of games where he would throw 2 or more INTS.
