Who doesn't like superstars? But having one doesn't do anything close to guaranteeing success (See Mack w Raiders). I'd much rather have a superstar coach and a team with quality (not necessarily All Pro) depth
Again going based off last season clips & just what ive been reading.. Jeudy Shenault Lamb Higgins Ruggs W a few others fighting to be in the mix
You’d say wrongly though. The blitz is a problem but not sure it’s a Williams thing. Adams has options when he is manned up. If his man stays in to block he can blitz. The counter to that is to delay his man before sending him out until Adams commits. He had a sack like that in the preseason but you could see where it could open a soft spot in the D. Adams has to take his rush through his man to get a bump on him and disrupt the rhythm. More pass rush would help too.
I'm just saying historically speaking WR is one position where you can get really good ones in almost every round and 1st rounders have a high bust rate 2017 1st round corey davis - bust mike williams - decent at best john ross - bust so far but showing potential now later on curtis samuel - 2nd round juju smith shuster - 2nd round cooper kupp - 3rd round Chris godwin - 3rd round kenny golladay - 3rd round dede westbrook - 4th round 2016 1st round corey coleman - bust will fuller - solid but oft injured WR2 Josh Doctson - bust laquon treadwell - bust later on sterling shepard 2nd michael thomas 2nd tyler boyd 2nd demarcus robinson 4th tyrek hill 5th rishard higgins 5th geronimo allison UDFA robby anderson UDFA 2015 1st round amario cooper - solid WR1 but not elite kevin white - bust devante parker - bust nelson agholar - bust Breshard Perrimen - bust phillip dorsett - bust later on devin funchess 2nd tyler lockett 3rd ty montgomery 3rd jamison crowder 4th stefon diggs 5th tyrell williams UDFA adam humphries UDFA so in those past 3 drafts 13 WRs were taken in the 1st round. out of those only 1 turned out to be a WR1 (cooper) and he was traded after a couple of disappointing seasons but doing well in dallas now. 10 were busts. 2 are decent WR2s that's really poor. on the flipside the later rounds have pro bowlers like micheal thomas, tyrek hill, and juju smith shuster. as well as some good WR1s and WR2s like diggs, lockett, crowder, tyrell williams, robby anderson, sterling shepard, westbrook, godwin, kupp, galladay. nobody can look at that list and think the 1st rounders are better. On top of that even looking at the rookies this year hollywood brown looks like a stud so far in the 1st and henry is on IR in the 1st so cna't judge. but some good looking late round guys so far are tery mclaurin 3rd deebo samual 2nd mecole hardman 2nd dk metcalf 2nd In short, taking a WR in the 1st round isn't a smart move for us right now. I'd rather do like we did in 2006 and use our top 2 picks on LT and C and shore up the o-line for a decade and grab a WR later in the draft.
Many of those WRs busted bc they were clear reaches(Davis,Ross, Coleman)some failed bc of injury(White).Its also ironic how you didnt include 2014 which saw a significant number of 1st round WRs who had great returns bc the talent pool was legit w no need to reach;Just like this coming class is shaping up to be. There are high bust rates at most positions in round 1.Corner?Edge? QUARTERBACK? Hell Erik Flowers,Luke Joeckel,DJ Fluker,Cedric Ogbeuhi,Greg Robinson, LJ Shelton,Jason Smith all say hi. If OL is the BPA of our needs come next year..by all means draft an OL.But if the value is at WR in RD 1 w value at OL later theres absolutely no reason to reach simply out of a perceived bust rate.Thats self defeating & flawed logic.
i just went back 3 years and didn't include the last 2 drafts because too soon. I'll add 2014 now at the bottom of this but it isn't going to fix the average even if it's good. ross wasn't a reach http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/john-ross?id=2558010 davis wasn't a reach http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/corey-davis?id=2557848 coleman was a reach at 15 but still considered a 1st rounder http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/corey-coleman?id=2555333 yes white was derailed due to injury but the sentiment still stands 2014 draft 1st round OBJ - elite WR Sammy Watkins - bust Mike evans - elite WR Brandon Cooks - WR1 but not elite Kelvin Benjamin - bust Notable later picks marquise lee 2nd devante adams 2nd allen robinson 2nd jarvis landry 2nd donte moncrief 3rd martavious bryant 4th enunwa 6th corey brown UDFA allen hurns UDFA The reality of this draft is, it's insane. The amount of talent that came out of it espcially at the WR position is not normal (and fuck the fact we took 3 WRs in this draft and had 12 bucks 11 of which were busts) but there were more 2nd round WR probowlers (3) then 1st round WR pro bolwers still (2) obviously evans and OBJ are elite and 2 od maybe 10 or so WRs i'd consider to be elite in the NFL today but there were still legit 3 WR1s taken later then the 1st this draft. This draft was a fluke overall though. 13 of the top 17 players taken are pro bowlers. 17 players drafted in the 1st round made pro bowls. that's more then half. the 2nd round also had 6 pro bowlers half of which were WRs. it was an insanely deep draft. there was even 6 UDFA pro bowlers that year. looking back at this now really pisses me off about idzik. I know hindsight is 2020 but this is what we could have had that draft (assuming no trade ups) Dee Ford Devante Adams Trai Turner Martavous Bryant James White Telvin Smith enunwa Charles Leno matt paradis Malcolm Butler Adrian Phillips Cody Parkey or Chris Boswell
and as far as bust rate for other positions go. PFF posted this WR is tied for the lowest starting % in the NFL being 1st rounders. there are more 2nd rounders and UDFA WRs starting in the NFL right now then 1st rounders. It's one of the few positions along with RB and TE that can be found anywhere in the draft pretty evenly. for CB 60% are 1st or 2nd round with 37.5% being 1st rounders. With that said I never said to reach, I said it's a really good draft for OT especially LT which is rare. good WR drafts happen all the time. This is the year to take a LT in the 1st
I'd put Lamb and Higgins above Shenault, but that's splitting hairs at this point. Tyler Johnson could be an under the radar prospect in round 1.
Adams Cancelled his weekly appearance on WFAN....???? Hmmmm wtf https://wfan.radio.com/articles/mag...oT9ynGaQNg5t_hfcyd16UJ0cTFDqubXTlH7JiAVNx3J-s
I'm not a fan of those numbers because they'll be artificially inflated if the league drafts a certain position more often in a certain round (e.g. first round QBs, late round kickers and punters, etc.) What we need is a comparison between where a player is drafted and his NFL performance.
Caporso @ TOJ had a good article about us drafting these guys at, “Low Ceiling impact positions.” Like 3-4 end and safety..logic being that even if they truly hit their potential, the impact wasn’t that much greater at those spots than what an average guy would get ya In this day of deep passes and generous rough contact penalties..a moody/chatty/box safety seems to qualify for “low ceiling impact position.” He’ll want to rob us blind in a few years..that’s if he agrees to stay..I can’t blame him for wanting out, and while I’d like to keep him (ideally) maybe it’s time to cash him -and Leo- ? Only problem is, historically our drafting is lousy
Why would you trade a proven All-Pro talent, top 3 at his position, for an unproven mid first round draft pick? That is how bad teams stay bad.
That would be dumb as hell. But if a team (not saying anyone would) offered a Khalil Mack-style haul...
How's that Mack trade looking for the Raiders? The Bears won that trade 10 times over. Trading your teams best player and leader just doesn't strike me as a good idea, and yes, I am aware Mack plays at a much higher impact position than Jamal does.
As you already said, Adams isn't Mack. Also, the Bears are far from playoff locks this year, and the end result of the Mack deal could easily be one playoff birth, no playoff wins, and a team that's worse off in the long run. Not that the Raiders will benefit much, but that's more because of who will be using the acquired capital than the capital itself.
yes it's obvious with kickers and punters and whatnot that nobody uses a high pick on them, but outside of that all the other positions get drafted based on talent. the only undervalued positions draft wise are kicker , punter, and long snapper. are you trying to say that teams don't draft o-line, CB, or WR in the 1st round? if we look at just last year this was the breakdown QB 3 d-line 11 o-line 6 WR 2 CB/S 3 TE 2 LBer 4 RB 1 So at least 1 of every position minus kicker, punter, and long snapper. obviously this fluctuates from draft to draft based on the talent pool but we've seen that teams won't shy away from any position in the 1st less the special teamers
You aren't using any context with this information. Many of the WR's who busted from round 1 had no business going that early & everyone knew it as soon as the pick was made.It happens every year at the position bc of the impact a true deep threat makes teams inflate their grades. Same thing happens at QB, Edge, DB...and even recently OT. I see this information & my reaction isn't to shun WR's in round 1..but rather make sure a team's grade is accurate,fits the system & isn't being over/under valued. This type of info is exactly what screws up a team like the Jets & causes them to overthink themselves. The team has not selected a WR round 1 since Santana Moss. Why? Terry Bradway had the same philosophy you have & its carried over through multiple defensive minded regimes...and outside of acouple flash in the pan seasons this team have been severely undermanned of consistency & dynamic play makers on the boundary. The steelers can find late round skill talent all day every day...the jets? Not so much. As for LTs in round 1...again..if the grade is right & the value is right take one. Right now we're surely picking top 5 & there isn't an OT worth taking till pick 10 the earliest. What you're suggesting is reaching, while simultaneously passing on higher graded players(at this stage) who also play a position of dire need. The value for OL as it stands right now is late day 1 & all of day 2. Seems like you're literally doing w. OL what your data suggests teams typically do w. WR's early; Reach out of need. That's not gonna work.Especially when your passing on better players that fit huge needs in the process.
you expect a 1st round WR to be a good starter. maybe bust is a bit harsh but he's not a good WR at all. philly has just been hurting badly at the WR spot or he'd not be a starter in the NFL. and he drops a ton of passes.
