AND CBG: This Afternoon A 20 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Tonight Snow likely before 4am, then a chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Thursday A chance of freezing rain before 7am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 38. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. Northwest wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night A 40 percent chance of light snow after 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 22. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Friday A 30 percent chance of light snow before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable. Friday Night A 30 percent chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Saturday A chance of snow before noon, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night A chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday A 30 percent chance of rain after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. Sunday Night A chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 20. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.
NEW YORK CITY: This Afternoon Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. Southeast wind around 9 mph. Tonight A chance of snow before 10pm, then snow and freezing rain likely between 10pm and 1am, then freezing rain likely after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 42. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. North wind 11 to 14 mph. Thursday Night A 50 percent chance of light snow after 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 28. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. North wind 7 to 10 mph. Friday A 30 percent chance of light snow, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Friday Night A 30 percent chance of rain after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Saturday A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Saturday Night A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Sunday A 30 percent chance of rain after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Sunday Night A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 35.
Again...Sunday/ Sunday night...well..more towards Sunday Night/Monday....this is one to watch. Now..right at the moment its showing tracking problems...too close to the coast. Also, the GFS has it coming in around 12 hours faster...therefore lighter yet colder. Somewhere in the middle and this could be a surprise. I would be tracking this one...and then 2 more over the next 7 days
Don't think the 2nd has enough potential and the swing wouldn't put it in a storm warning...the 4th? That would be Sunday night /Monday? I would be watching that one. While the % are not high...the potential is. Need that banana high to the north to flex the ole muscles a bit more...if that happens? Could meet the WSW criteria of 6+..and if it does...would easily hit 6. less than 50% now...but not much has to happen for the bumparuski. Lesson for the day: "BANANA HIGH": Double barrel high pressure with one over the Midwest...and one anywhere from the Great Lakes (ideal) to just over Maine...so looking at a map it looks like a Banana....ummm...high. High pressure=cold source. More lessons...high pressure also creates high winds with the gradients between the high to the north and the low to the south...memory lane....Hurricane Sandy caused major devastation well inland with winds because of a bombing high pressure to the North....not Sandy herself.
Last thing...and man...you guys are going to welcome in March and freeze your asses off Starting Tuesday the 5th...wow...cold.
Jay, the only problem with those forecast from the NWS ( and I look at them often ) is that they change constantly from model run to model run ----> they are ridiculous. It appears to me they update and change daily and often.
They update 2 times a day. If you read their "discussion" you will see that really do take all the models into the equation and throw out what they do not agree with. They are big on blending (liking the GFS temps...liking the EURO track...or meeting in the middle on tracks). What I love..and mean LOVE about that site is the discussions. They put out new discussions every 12 HOURS (4AM 4PM...APPROX) Unless a storm is on the doorstep or ongoing...then it updates quite frequently. They do change from run to run...agreed...but they kind of have to. We should do the same too but we are told not to go over the edge and wait out 3 or 4 runs for a trend. In all actuality, they cant. Its the government and many rely on it..so they have to update to the models they favor. I do love it because I used to come to a conclusion...even a gut conclusion...and then read that to see if I had lost my mind. Many times they would open the door to change. It worth reading the discussion...but warning..its hard reading but you will learn while you read. Here is a typical discussion Middletown, NY...long range forecast: THIS IS ACTUALLY ONE OF THEIR EASIER READS. Another low may impact the area as early as Friday night into Saturday along the same frontal boundary to our south. ECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET show a weak coastal low passing south and east of the area during this time frame, with the GFS an outlier with no low pressure to note. PoP increases to chance, and has been capped there due to uncertainty. There is also uncertainty on precipitation type, which will depend on how strong and how close the low tracks to the coast. The final low to impact the area will be Sunday night into Monday along a frontal boundary to our west. Large uncertainty with this as well as the ECMWF shifted the low from well offshore passing near the 40N/70W benchmark, to passing over the area Sunday night. The GFS is about 18 hours quicker. If the ECMWF is realized, more in the way of rain will occur, with a period of moderate to briefly heavy rain possible. Increased temperatures from what guidance had Sunday night into Monday given this westward trend. This allows a period of rain to mix in along the coast, however it is certainly possible that this could be an all rain event, or snow changing to rain, depending on the eventual low track. High pressure and well below normal temperatures are in store for the rest of Monday and Tuesday
ok...just checked 4pm update and I'm sticking with it...keep an eye out for Sunday night...late Sunday...into Sunday night. FASTER MOVER...BUTTTT...
Maybe the Jayster or Fjay can chime in BUT Friday looks like it is a little better setup for us to get some snow --------> BUT ------------> Sunday into Monday (and yes there are 4 days to go and we have seen this before )-----------> BUT--------------> I think it could FINALLY bring the goods ----------> Im going with In like a Lion as this setup looks good with 4 days to go !
Also------> Jay ,NOTHING shows the energy farther South" YET " but FJAY you and I both know from watching a thousand Bernie videos that wherever the energy enters on the West Coast that there is a GOOD chance that is where the energy exits on the East Coast and right now nothing shows this ----->YET
Sunday/Monday set up looking stronger, could be a legit storm. 5-8 range but of course mixing issues could be a problem.
Don't take your eye off the ball fellas ,,,2 Little systems one tomorrow another Saturday but SUNDAY NIGHT is the one that needs to be watched ----I know it sounds old and this winter has sucked for me n FJAY but the setup could come together we could get some snow Sunday nite = Im believing that we might come "IN LIKE A LION"
BTW right now as of 11 A.M. the weather channel / NWS has rain and snow for my area and 1-3 inches for Sunday night. Yes Jayster they write nice explanations but watch how that changes I think it is more then twice a day
in other news it APPEARS some of us might get a little snow tomorrow night but my eyes are on Sunday ----BTW I whispered so much this winter that my voice is gone
just amazing --3 waves or systems are now on the horizon and each one will have an effect on the one that follows---we have a shot at Snow or Rain on Friday another Shot on Saturday and another Sunday night = you can't make this up
2 hour school delays here by me,,,,,,who woulda thunk it ? lol.-----> might be more of the same weather tomorrow and FJAY and others = how about Sunday night have you seen what the damn models are spitting out ? OH MY keep your eye on the ball kids
I went to walk my dog at 5:30 a.m., opened the front door and went, "WHAAATTTTT." An inch on the ground and snowing like crazy! It's supposed to stop soon and then start up again after midnight, 3" - 5" projected, but who is to say.
