For whatever reason, this bounced into my head almost instantly. Bengals/Broncos can't both win out because they play Chiefs/JAX can't win out because they play (root hard for KC here because if JAX wins, they'd take any 3 way tie between the 3 teams) If Broncos/JAX win out, they go, we sit home. Now if Bengals/Chiefs win out we're in (KC 5 losses in divison, Bengals/NYJ 4) Now if the Broncos/Chiefs win out, we're in (Break tie in the division 1st) Now if Bengals/JAX win out, 1) we'd all be tied at 4 conferene losses. 2) So now you use common games, but there are not enough (need 4, there would be 2.. NE and INDY) 3) Strength of Victory. This is the best W/L record of the teams you beat. This is very hard to figure out now because of the 4 remaining games, but based on the games we've ALREADY PLAYED (7 wins for each): NYJ - 34 wins JAX - 41 wins (with Philly game pending, so it could be 42) CIN - 44 wins (with Carolina pending, so it could be 45) That's a big distance to make up.. and we'd most likely be eliminated under this scenario too but it's impossible to predict.
I'm impressed with the amount of preparation for each game, something that was less than stellar under Herm, IMO. He talked of preparation, but this coach actually does it. Mangini doesn't give these guys any time to think ahead of the next game. Every game is focused, from watching film and talking about it in class to individual oral reports that have to be prepared and presented in front of teammates. This guy is for real. If there's any way for the Jets to win out and get into the playoffs, Mangini will be the guy responsible for that happening. If that does happen (taking a team from 4-12 to the playoffs) Mangini will be well on his way to carving our a niche for himself in the NFL.
Or if Justin was tackled at the 50 by Indy. Indy's defense was done and we would have went down and scored a touchdown and Peyton would not have had enough time for the comeback.
a great point...but for arguments sake....look at the remiaing schedules of Den/Jax and tell me that both of them will realy win out....id say that the chance is about .01%
Remember that all of these scenarios you're posting still require the Jets to take care of business, which is probably going to be 3-1. To be a bit of a darksider, we were unlucky to play NE week 2, but we caught big breaks playing Tennessee week 1 and Miami as early as we did.
Most likely you are right, especially with Cutler (boy is he awful). However, we do not control our own destiny which was my point.
The Jets have to go 11-5 to make the playoffs. Plain and simple. It's fairly obvious by looking at the schedule that the Chiefs, Bengals, and Broncos are in an easy position to go 10-6. I see Jax finishing 9-7 at best, probably 8-8. There's no reason why the Jets can't win out. The schedule is inferior, and there's really no other way in to the playoffs. -X-
Broncos going 10-6 implies they beat Cincinnati if they lose to SD, which in turn implies Cincy beats the Colts.....
I can't see JAX winning more than two games. I can't see the Chiefs winning more than two games either. I think it is going to come down to the Bengals, Jets, and Broncos (but who knows how Cutler will do). Hopefully the Jets win out.
AS of right now: AFC Seed Team Record 1 Indianapolis 10-2 (AFC South leader) 2 San Diego 10-2 (AFC West leader) 3 Baltimore 9-3 (AFC North leader) 4 New England 9-3 (AFC East leader) 5 Cincinnati 7-5 6 N.Y. Jets 7-5 7 Jacksonville 7-5 8 Kansas City 7-5 9 Denver 7-5 10 Buffalo 5-7 11 Pittsburgh 5-7 12 Miami 5-7 13 Tennessee 5-7 14 Houston 3-8 15 Cleveland 4-8 16 Oakland 2-9 AFC Tiebreakers # Indianapolis is the No. 1 seed based on a better conference record over San Diego (7-1 to Chargers' 8-2). # Baltimore is the No. 3 seed based on a better conference record over New England (6-2 to Patriots' 5-3). # Cincinnati is the No. 5 seed based on conference record with New York Jets, Jacksonville and Kansas City (5-3 to Jets' 5-4, Jaguars' 4-4 and Chiefs' 3-5). # New York is the No. 6 seed based on conference record with Jacksonville and Kansas City (5-4 to Jaguars' 4-4 and Chiefs' 3-5).
If Cincinnati and Jacksonville win out then the Bengals get seed 5 with a 9-3 conference record removing them from the tie. Then Jacksonville gets the 6 seed due to their head to head win against us. A 3 way tie at 11-5 with those two teams leaves the Jets out in the cold. All the other scenarios you posted are correct.
Denver should be the #5 seed based on it's 7-3 conference record, which pushes the Jets one spot out of the last wild card. Having said that, it's highly unlikely that either Denver or Cincy can win out. One thing for certain, since they have to play each other, they can't both win out. That means that if the Jets win the last 4 games, they are automatically in, does it not? So, they are in fact in control of their own destiny, as I understand it... although I'm sure some ego-head will jump in my chit if I missed something.:smile:
The Jets can win out and not make the playoffs if both Cincinnati and Jacksonville OR Denver and Jacksonville win out alongside them. Kansas City cannot make the playoffs over the Jets if both teams win out and Cincinnati and Denver cannot both win out. Another way to put this is that if the Jets win out then one Jacksonville loss puts them in the playoffs.
I believe that KC knocks Denver out with a better divisional record and their conference records never get compared to the out of division contenders until one of them is gone.
Can anyone still not imagine this team making the playoffs. I am extremely confident in this team and believe we will win but with 4 weeks to go I just can't seem to convince myself that we will make the playoffs. I guess I don't want to get my hopes up just to have them killed if we end up losing. However, a win this week will definitly make me think we will get it. Right now it is just so hard to think that we will make the playoffs with this team. Its exciting just to be in the race , making the playoffs will be an unexpected bonus.
