I don't think the play Mayfield is running is the same play Brady is running. Look at where Gronk is when Brady releases it. Totally different from where Mayfield's receiver is.
it's the same play, it's a seam route. the difference is outside vs inside. That's why if you watch both plays, the 1st thing the TE does when he gets his step is raise his hands, that lets the QB know he beat the defender and they can throw to the spot. Gronk on that play was inside while the reciever for baker was outside, so I actually will say, that i need to move the square down, the ball shouldn't have been in the middle but it should have been outside and over the top, so he didn't miss outside per-se but he severely under threw the ball, which is why the receiver had to stop his route and catch a contested ball, it should have been an easy catch in stride like gronk. Mayfield shows no ability to throw the ball over a receiver to a spot and let him run under it, he also tends to overthrow or sail balls downfield. It's very rare to see a mayfield throw where the receiver catches a ball in a tight window, in stride and turns up field over 10 yards. that's the bread and butter of an NFL QB. you can't be successful if you can't make throws like that.
Okay that makes more sense, I can see the ball being somewhat underthrown. But I don't think it's severely underthrown, I trust that an NFL receiver would make the play over an NFL DB. And I know Mayfield's balls can float on him sometimes, which is a big reason why he isn't my favorite QB. I still trust him more than Allen though. You of course are free to disagree.
I'm a Mayfield guy but I don't hate Allen. I think everyone realizes if this kid puts it all together he can be a monster gunslinger. He has the arm of Jeff George and Jay Cutler without the apathy and idiocy that those brought to the table. He's a legitimate good kid who will work hard. Trouble is if the accuracy ain't there now it may never be. And he doesn't have the 4 year starter experience of a Mayfield. Mayfield has the arm, a cannon himself. He can make every throw. It's just not getting talked about as much because everyone is fawning over Allens. Mayfield is a natural leader. He has unbelievable gifted accuracy. He's gotten better and better over the course of his college. He is a dangerous playmaker If the Giants are moronic enough to not draft Rosen then I think we take Rosen and I would have no issue with it. But if it's Allen vs. Mayfield I go Mayfield without thinking twice
That was the play calling by the HC... the QB can only execute what he is given... yet you're blaming the QB... ALL I hear about allen is that he has no time to throw that's why his accuracy is below par.... the Oklahoma "O" line in the 2nd half was a sieve at best...yet Mayfield Still kept them in the game & gave them the lead which their "D" failed to hold onto. ALL I know is if Mayfield was 6'4" there would ZERO question of who the #1 Draft pick would be.
It's just weird to me that you're knocking a QB known for being accurate about his accuracy and praising a guy about his accuracy when his weakness...is his accuracy
Excellent post. Well thought out with facts behind. I will disagree about one factor that is the base for your post. Most trade rumours regarding the second pick is teams moving up for Allen. I don’t think Rosen is a lock #2 pick at all. After Darnold I believe we will take one of Allen, Rosen or Mayfield. If you have time I’d love your take on adding Rosen to your analysis! Also I feel Allen is the superior talent. For me he passes the eye test most of all. He has all the measurables of an ideal QB, he would be walking in the league with the biggest arm, his ability to make passes on the run (especially to his right) are special and most of all he created big plays with both his feet and arm. His teammates loved him a made him captain, his OL was terrible (especially at RT) but he never threw them under the bus, his personality is genuine coming from a hard working farm family in Cali. He comes from a pro style offence that has produced a current star and was under center for almost 40% of his snaps. At the senior bowl surrounded by better talent he shined and also did whatever was asked of him at his pro day and combine.
Fixed. It’s not even close pal If Mayfield gets drafted here I’ll cheer him on and root for him! But he’s nowhere close to the prospect Allen is. If he was then why are the rumours for teams trying to trade to #2 not for him??? It’s for Allen. To think we know more about scouting prospects that pro scouts is crazy talk. Your entitled to ur opinion but your off on this one
Maccagnan is a big school scout guy... Realize he hasn’t drafted a player from a ‘small school’ earlier than the 5th round. With the bad selection of Hackenberg, it’s going to take quite a bit for him to go outside his comfort zone. Combine that with the timing of the trade and it’s a two horse race. Rosen (who I’ve come to not prefer) and Baker. I’m not as down on Allen as my posts might indicate, it’s going to ultimately be fun to have new blood at the position no matter how it shakes down.
Sorry, Kurt, but imo your comments regarding Allen's accuracy just don't hold water. To begin with, he may NEVER figure out ball placement or touch. There have been a lot of QBs who came to the NFL, got better coaching and sat for a year, if not 2-4 years, and their accuracy never got better, nor did their ability to read Ds. So while what you claim could happen, the odds are that it won't. It isn't just numbers/stats that makes me prefer Mayfield over Allen, although they do play an important part. IMO Mayfield offers more in terms of leadership, fiery competitiveness/never quitting, extending plays, and football IQ/instincts for the position of QB. Sure, he's a very talented kid, and IF he puts it all together, could put up HOF numbers. He could also be an unmitigated bust on the order of Hack. I don't think he's a good fit for the Jets. If they draft him, I'll root like hell for him, hope you and others are right about him, and that I'm wrong. I think he stands a much better chance of developing in Buffalo or somewhere in the South or midwest far from the glare of the lights of NY or Chicago or Philly or LA. Below I take a look at various components/factors that should be considered when evaluating QB prospects. I have tried to be as fair and unbiased in this as I can. Some may quibble with some of these and I may be wrong. I don't pretend to be an expert on these. I welcome comments. Characteristics/Health Arm Strength - Allen has the strongest arm of any QB in the draft. Mayfield is second, and has a stronger, more accurate arm than either Darnold or Rosen. All four can make all the throws. Edge: Allen Rank: Allen, Mayfield, Darnold/Rosen Ceiling/Floor - Allen undoubtedly has the highest Ceiling, but also the lowest floor. If Rosen can stay healthy, he may have the 2nd highest ceiling (that distinction could possibly also belong to Darnold), but that may be a big IF with his injury history and thin frame. For the purposes of this discussion, I will omit health considerations since it has a separate category; however if Rosen does have an arrogant attitude and doesn't listen to his coaches and/or doesn't work hard enough (is an entitled millenial), then he could bust in short order. If Darnold doesn't have the 2nd highest ceiling, he has a close 3rd. Mayfield has one of the highest floors, but also the lowest ceiling. That may not matter however, as if each plays at the same level in the NFL that he did in college, Mayfield will turn out to be the best QB of the four. Assuming he can fix the fumbles and interceptions, I'm gonna give the edge to Darnold. He has the most balanced position between ceiling and floor aside from Mayfield, and with a higher ceiling gets the edge. Edge: Darnold Ranking: Darnold, Mayfield, Allen/Rosen (tie) Character - Allen has a great character. As far as I know, so does Darnold. Rosen and Allen are the two whose character have been called into question. With Mayfield, I think it's more immaturity. With Rosen it may be arrogance from being so wealthy and intelligent, but I don't think he has a bad character in terms of getting in trouble with the law, but he could possibly squabble with his OC and HC. Edge: Allen Ranking: Allen, Darnold, Mayfield/Rosen (tie) Health - Darnold and Allen have an advantage in that they haven't had a concussion (or at least I haven't seen one mentioned for either). Both have great size. Mayfield had two concussions, both two years ago. Rosen has had two within the last year. Rosen also had a fairly bad injury to his shoulder last season, and with his thin, wiry frame, is very likely to stay banged up in the NFL. Mayfield is more solidly built than Rosen, but had an injury his freshman year at Texas Tech that had him miss some time and affected his play the remainder of the season. In his season-and-a-half of play, I don't think Darnold had any injuries. Allen missed two or three games this past season. I'm not sure about his freshman season. Edge: Darnold Rank: Darnold, Allen, Mayfield, Rosen Intangibles - Leadership, Football IQ, Competitiveness Edge: Mayfield Rank: Mayfield, Allen, Darnold, Rosen ? Size/Height - Darnold & Allen have the advantage over both Rosen and Mayfield in terms of size/height, although he's shorter, Mayfied has a thicker frame than Rosen, and with his greater mobility, Mayfield has the edge. Edge: Darnold/Allen Rank: Darnold/Allen (tie), Mayfield, Rosen Background Offensive System - Darnold, Allen and Rosen all have the advantage over Mayfield in that both played in an NFL-type offense and Mayfield didn't. Edge: Rosen, Darnold & Allen Rank: Rosen/Darnold/Allen (tie) Mayfield Playing Conditions - Allen has won on the road and has played in bad weather. Rosen hasn't played in cold/bad weather and hasn't won on the road. Mayfield has played in all kinds of weather and won and has won on the road. I'm not sure about Darnold. Mayfield and Allen have the edge over Rosen, not certain about Darnold in terms of weather conditions, but am certain he has won on the road. Edge: Mayfield Rank: Mayfield, Allen, Darnold, Rosen Starting Experience - Mayfield has four years of starting/playing experience. Rosen has 2 1/2, Allen 2, and Darnold has 1 1/2. Edge: Mayfield Rank: Mayfield, Rosen, Allen, Darnold Strength of Schedule/Opponents - Even though all 4 QBs played some big schools, tough opponents, Mayfield gets the edge because he started for 4 years and none of others even come close. Edge: Mayfield Rank: Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold, Allen Play Accuracy/Completion Percentage - Mayfield led the nation in completion percentage his past season. None of the other three were even in the top 20. Mayfield had a 70.5%, Darnold a 63.1%, Rosen a 62.6%, and Allen a 56.3% Edge: Mayfield Ranking: Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Allen Mobility/Extending Plays - Mayfield is better at moving and extending plays than either Darnold, Allen or Rosen. Darnold is the 2nd best at this. Allen is probably 3rd. Rosen isn't very mobile Edge: Mayfield Rank: Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen Passing Efficiency - Mayfield was number one in the nation each of the last two years and set an all time record for collegiate QBs. He had a 198.9. None of the other 3 were even in the top 20. Darnold was #26 with a 148.1 and Rosen was #28 with a 147.0. Allen was 72nd iwth a 127.8. Edge: Mayfield Ranking: Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Allen Passing Yards - Mayfield was second in the nation this past season with 4,627 yards. Darnold was #5 with 4,143 yards, and Rosen #14 with 3,756 yards. Allen was a distant fourth with 1,8712 yards. Edge: Mayfield Ranking: Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Allen Passing Yards Per Attempt - Mayfield was #1 with 11.5 YPA. Darnold was #11 with 8.6, Rosen was #18 with 8.3, and Allen had 6.7. To be fair, Mayfield and Darnold had the better OLs, and Rosen and Allen had the worst. Mayfield probably had the better receivers. Mayfield's offense is built on YAC, and with the spread offense, his WRs were more open than receivers on the other teams. Still, the disparity in numbers can't be traced to those factors alone imo. Edge: Mayfield Ranking: Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Allen Adjusted Passing Yards Per Attempt - Mayfield again was #1 with 12.9. I couldn't find numbers for the others, but Darnold's didn't improve, it either stayed the same or dropped. TDs - Mayfield was 2nd in the nation with 43. Darnold had 26, Rosen had 26, and Allen had 16. Edge: Mayfield Ranking: Mayfield, Darnold/Rosen (tie), Allen Turnovers - Darnold turns the ball over a lot via fumbles and interceptions, and Rosen throws a pretty high number of interceptions as well. With the slow delivery of Darnold's throwing motion, he's likely to throw even more interceptions in the NFL if he can't fix it, and some experts think that can't be altered by the time a QB reaches the NFL. If he doesn't learn to hold the ball higher, Darnold could also fumble quite a bit in the NFL. Mayfield doesn't have a problem with either of these. Allen didn't turn the ball over nearly as much as either Darnold or Rosen. He tied Mayfield with 6, but Mayfield had 134 more attempts. Edge: Mayfield Rank: Mayfield, Allen, Rosen, Darnold
First, I'm no expert, nor do I have the time to analyze and study all the info out there on these guys. Second, Macc and his staff are paid to do this work, and we have to hope they're up to the task. Given their track record, it's no cinch that they are, but were stuck with them for now. Third, regardless who they pick, by moving up to #3 they're certain to get a difference-maker, ideally a FQB, but if they took Barkley and then grabbed a QB later or next year they would still be far ahead of where they were at the end of the season. Fourth, any of the top four QBs will be an improvement over what they had. We all have our preferences, but we should see progress no matter who is taken. Fifth, if the pick turns out to be a bust, it will mean the end of the Macc & Bowles era, and that's the silver lining in that cloud. Finally, after digesting all the discussions so far, I'm still hoping for Rosen.
Saying people didn't watch film is so lame. Just because you watched two highlight reels means you have watched film? To reiterate, I was impressed with your analysis so don't take it the wrong way. I just don't think you can get on people for not having watched tape just because you analyzed throws from highlight reels. Seems unfair.
To make it succinct: Allen has the higher ceiling. Mayfield has the higher floor. While I won't dismiss the film SGB has posted, I don't agree with his analysis of it.
We’re all incredibly biased by this point and there’s no way to remove those biases. They don’t manifest themselves in the analysis of the individual plays, they show up in WHICH of the hundreds upon hundreds of snaps you choose to highlight. For every slightly inaccurate Mayfield ball you post, I could post a dime. For every Allen rocket you post, I could post an airmailed ball. The sample sizes are so large that we can selectively display whatever we want for the world to see and act like that’s all there is.
This is why when I see people losing their minds in debate on this board...I just shake my head. Agree to disagree, move on. I think the poll speaks loudly and clearly for this board.
I don't equate Completion % & ball placement as one in the same. Completion percentage is completing a pass which is a stat that has multiple components spanning beyond the performance of the Quarterback. Ball placement falls completely on the QB & there is no number to quantify it. Ball placement might be a COMPONENT of said statistic but they are not the same thing. In my opinion Allen's completion % is deceiving based on the offense he was in & his surrounding cast. Additionally while I think he needs to learn consistency within his footwork & touch that his ball placement issues are excessively overblown. He has a few misfires but that comes w. the territory of being a big armed QB. The good news is he doesn't turn the ball over w. those misfires & when you factor in the big plays he provides it kind of offsets that portion.He's already shown improvement at every opportunity given to him this offseason. The fact that he's getting a year on the bench to further hone in on that aspect only eases concerns all the more. Mayfield to me is a whole different evaluation. Frankly I have concerns about the massive throwing windows he was provided at OU.At his size & hypothetically the meadowlands is he gonna be able to find throwing lanes & drive the ball into tight windows? Until he gets into TC we really have no idea. He's made very few NFL level throws & was never really asked to squeeze the ball into tight areas. If he can't do that...he can't play. Simple as that. And again..there's no way to project that, simulate that in a workout or otherwise..it's a massive risk. Of course you love the grit,competitiveness & playmaking ability..how could you not? Is he Drew Brees or Cade Mcnown?
