You're totally right. What is often the case when amateurs (myself included) evaluate draft prospects is an unhealthy dose of confirmation bias and anchoring bias. For example, many around here and elsewhere can't get over the comparison of Baker Mayfield to Johnny Manziel because Mayfield was arrested once. This is a huge anchoring bias that isn't grounded in fact. We all do it to some extent.
This is one of the reasons why Allen scares the crap out me. He’s going to be a giant bust. Mayfield is going to be Brees II. He’s the most accurate QB in this draft + has a great all around arm. I’m mystified that people question it.
When he relax's. That could mean he lacks poise, and doesn't have the ability to stay calm, and has trouble processing things at times. That's killed a million QB's and people have waited around for QB's to get that to no avail. Be careful what you want your guy to improve at. Don't make a mistake about that. Those are special traits. Guys like Wilson and Brees have them, as well as the best QB's
I actually have two of those numbers in the UK lottery on a weekly basis 5 and 22 btw I also seen what you did with the 5-11
I was hoping for a really bad throw and the cameraman to get hit as we see the ball come flying in like old style 3d
The ONLY thing I see as "evidence", if you want to call it that, YOU presented of him "...NOT a day 1 or even year 1 starter, on any team" is decision making. I'll give you that even though I'd argue it's kind of hard to gauge considering the talent level surrounding him. Second I'd point out that his decision making greatly improved this past year versus the year before. His first year at Wyoming he made some horrendous game losing decisions. Even some of his positive plays fell under that category. Last, I'd add both Darnold and Rosen make questionable decision at times too. I agree he is the least accurate of the top QBs but it's certainly is good enough to be considered a top prospects. It's certainly not Hack level bad. Accuracy is just one of many traits GMs look for. No one would say Rosen is not ready because he is the least athletic of the bunch. Accuracy could be a deal breaker for you and that's fine that doesn't make him not ready to start Day 1. It's funny you mention 2 things, accuracy and decision making, then later say "all his major flaws" as if he has so many. New flash they all have flaws and they all will struggle at some level if they have to start Day 1. Allen can easily start on Day 1 running a heavy run, play action, bootleg, roll out type offense. Coincidently, the type of offense Bates likes to run.
Agree, some guys just can never get this. I believe it's more an innate quality than a learned one, which is why the greats seem to all have it, but the flops don't. I also think that Allen lacks a refined sense of timing. Is that because he's always relied on his arm to power the ball after he's taken too much time to process? Of does his powering the ball hide this shortcoming? In either case I thin he struggles with this, and it shows up mostly in shorter routes where he doesn't have enough time to process the timing, and then he tries to overcome the delay with the speed of his throw. During the combine, or when he had more time to process he had much better accuracy, but in the NFL, with much faster players, he's not going to have this luxury. Counting on him "learning" to take his time is a false hope IMO. Can he improve this? Maybe. And how important is this, if he can make plays in other ways, like Favre, or Roethlesberger? Maybe he can still be great, given his phenomenal arm strength, but I'd rather go with Rosen or Mayfield.
wow.....was out of town until late last night and viola - we have #3...... we HAD to do this. period. tells me they will take either darnold or rosen. also tells me the giants arē not taking a QB and could trade out. they had to talk to the browns but i guess their price was too steep. i wonder if the jets first inquired about luck?
Yeah, I might've done that with Mayfield in a positive sense. But I really didn't know enough about Darnold and Allen to make any kind of statement as far as the best guy. Some of the positives about Allen by some guys made me take a step back. But I'm going back to the reasons why like Mayfield and I know their sound good reasons. There's gonna be risk in all of them. I have a kinda faith in Mayfield. I'm not gonna worry about any them for now until I look more closely at them all and read more reports. The this guy or death statements are over the top to me.
So someone please explain why suddenly at the Senior Bowl playing finally with and against NFL caliber talent he looked like one of the best players on the field. There was no evidence then of this lack of timing, poor touch and/or accuracy issues. Getting a QB to throw less hard is an easier fix IMO than having to tinker their mechanics, getting them comfortable under center or learn how to throw into tighter windows.
You are saying Allen is not Hackenberg level bad, but if you look at their stats side by side, Allen was more accurate than Hackenberg by 0.1% (Allen: 56.2%, Hackenberg: 56.1%). Allen's statistics are more impressive than Hackenberg overall, but accuracy isn't one of those. While you are sort of right in pointing out that all the QBs have flaws in some ways, the issue is what those flaws are. Allen's flaws specifically are the most significant because they are fundamental QB skills, compared to the flaws you can point out with the other three. In terms of the talent around him, sure his group was arguably the worst, but this was also true for the competition he faced. For context around strength of schedule faced by our top 4: Darnold - USC: 26 (opponent win%: 59%) Mayfield - Oklahoma: 31 (opponent win%: 59%) Rosen - UCLA: 37 (opponent win%: 57%) Allen - Wyoming: 115 (opponent win%: 44%) If you check out the Samuel Gold video on Darnold, he demonstrates examples of how Darnold's supporting cast specifically let him down repeatedly throughout the season by not knowing their assignments and being out of position. While you can argue that Darnold's receivers were more talented, they also let him down in a way that Allen's did not, as demonstrated in the videos I posted. Allen misses on his own accord. This is a big deal at the next level. He can fix it, but there's only been a handful of QBs in history who have actually managed to do so. Those end up being really good QBs, but it is still a major hurdle that needs to be overcome. Allen needs to develop more than the other 3 in order to achieve the level of success he has the potential of achieving.
Indy's GM said they had lots of offers for the pick but they wanted to stay near the top 5 which is why they took ours...that tells you what is still to come regarding teams trying to trade up.
The Senior Bowl has an extremely restrictive set of rules that waters it down tremendously. The game is meant to serve as an opportunity to give more exposure to NFL teams. It in no way shape or form tells you more about any player than their performance with their actual college team did.
Right. His saving grace is that he is such a beast that he could make plays on the fly, especially on broken plays with throws down field. There's no doubt about that. But the claims about having to fix that stuff and that's okay could be said about Lamar Jackson also. Doesn't mean he's going to. And that would be a disaster just as much as the claims for the negatives of Mayfield and Rosen. If we take him I'll at least hold onto that. But the negatives about these guys are all based on something. I don't think any of them are made up and don't have some basis for them. It's just that they become exaggerated some times and gain traction in piece meal as people latch onto to fit an impression and get tossed around without a thorough look at all the variables. Don't get big eyes for what you think may happen and rationalize. Sometimes what you see is what you get. There's a guy that makes all the throws with pin point accuracy and can chew gum and walk at the same time. I think has the make up to adjust to anything too. That's the other thing that people forget: adjusting to the NFL, it's a monster. That is not an easy thing to do and has killed many super talented kids.
3 seems to have been the hotspot though. Sounds like to me Cleveland has no intention to move out of one and while the Giants might, the price is gonna be very expensive. Giants obviously turned down 3 2nds, maybe even more, to move down 4 spots. Can you imagine what it will take to drop down to 12 for them?
