I had only just turned 13 at the time so I think the money we made digging cars out went to pizza, movies and candy.
Jay and company NAM on board also,,,,,,,,,very curious to see what the evening and morning models say,,,,,,trending more North n West would not shock me its been that way ALL WINTER ! ----Jay right now I think LI in the game and possibly NYC as well,,,,,,,,its a lot closer now than when we woke up today time will tell,,,,,thoughts ?
Ok..first thing I checked without even looking at a model was the NWS forecast for North Jersey...and all I can say is there must have been severe changes...here is the forecast: NWS: Monday A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 40. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. North wind around 6 mph. Monday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Northeast wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. I don't care what they put for the accumulations. Means nothing....what caught my eye is the %...that doubled. That's the building block...that's the red flag that now..something is coming. Let me check the models and how they changed.
hmmmm....just checked them. Hmmmm...something isn't adding up. I got it...Groundhog day. CBG...how long have we talked about trends...model trends...and as you have so astutely mentioned several times today...we have seen this movie before. In the ole days, I would say too little too late....but it keeps getting closer and closer. I would think....I would think it gets even closer tonight and if it does, gets closer tomorrow. Beginning to think we might have a problem here. As of right now, New England gets clobbered...and it all begins again around I95 BUT north. Sound familiar? The year of I95. Lets see. Will try to post tonight but will be free all morning and afternoon tomorrow. Think we might be tracking something here. Reason for all of this is its a bit slower...allowing a CHANCE for north/south jet stream interaction. OHHHHHH..I meant to answer your question and will do so in the easiest way possible. You asked about dynamics....and here it is as basic as you can get. Is the air colder, the same or warmer aloft? Colder right? When a storm gets cranking...really cranking....it forces that cold air lower in the atmosphere. So when you hear me or anyone else say "the dynamics are so strong, its creating its own cold air". Much more to it but that is the easiest way to explain it. Ever see a huge storm start to wrap up and it ends as drizzle or light rain or even sleet at the end? The dynamics whither away... When a storm is really cranking and pressures are falling, cold air is brought to the ground. Now....it only makes in most instances a 2 to 4 degree change...but that with the last storm was enough for many....not enough for some. Hope that makes a little sense.
Tough to say right now Brook...if you go by what the NWS is calling for..would 3-5 delay it? Not sure....will know better tomorrow sir.
Thanks Jay. I hope the snow stays away but with my luck it will snow 10 inches and send CBG in a frenzy.
BTW all I was in Peter Lugers last nite with friends, been a long time since I was there,,,,,,still great but I stray,,,,,,,, they still bang you for drinks big time but they are healthy beverages as far as the pour and not your liver goes but again I stray---> That said hey Jayster whats doin my man !!!! Just looked at over night stuff and heres what I got Nam and GFS are very close calls , Euro says very close but that this is west of the benchmark . Jay and company you all know I luv da snow but that is not what I have been basing my posts on. In the old days we say "this late in the game ,36 hours to go , its a miss for N n W of the city and LI gets hit " but not this year--N n W movements every damn storm all winter so Im sticking to my guns still time for this to shift and I mean a lot even this late in the game . The NWS issued a statement that they think the same exact thing,,,,,,,,,,also the phasing is so damn close ------Jay years ago at this stage it would have been called begging and wish casting , what do u think ? I think we have to still watch todays runs and maybe all the way until game time ? BTW losing an hour after out late drinking----> aint as easy as it used to be for the old guy / me PS "where have you gone Fjay our nation turns her lonely eyes to you ,,,woo who who "
I think IF this thing shifted 50 miles west between today n tomorrow,,,,,hmmmmmmm now if it shifted 100 miles ,,,,oh brother
Check what your contract says about how many days they have to complete the inspection. Contracts almost never mention weather so if they are under the gun to get it done before the inspection period expires, then it will probably get done. I know Jersey usually has a much longer contract period but in Florida I usually do a 30 day close so we do a 10-15 day inspection period.
Contract says 10 days for inspection. The contract was signed exactly 6 days ago. Tuesday it will be the 9th day.
Check also what days are counted. Sometimes time frames over 30 days include weekends and holidays but shorter time frames only count work days. It is generally in a separate clause of the contract.
Damn...short range models give us a clue...but are they right..will post it then comment. HRDPS SHORT RANGE MODEL: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=352115 As of right now, if I'm on the Jersey coast, would be keeping an eye on this. I guess everyone should....but it continues to track west. Unlike that crazy man CBG, I have a feeling if I still lived up north, I would pass on this one for 2 reasons. First, its not a true bomb...if the most I would get is 7 or 8...do I want that in March? Second....I wouldn't want that in March...it will be a heavy wet snow if it happens. In fact, the closer it gets...the more NWS begins to introduce mixing. Now...one very interesting thing about this storm is timing. It has slowed down in timing and that means most of the heavy stuff, if it happens, will fall at night...Monday night. In March...better chances for things sticking at night compared to daytime heating and March sun. Need to see todays GFS at 11!! (moves back an hour) and EURO...2PM.
NAM looking better as far as the phasing , no ? very close ,,,,inch of qpf and so far its still trending N n W ,,,BTW just for the record I am not saying "I WANT THIS ONE " all I am saying is this one always had a chance and still does,,,the city and LI are in this game keep em coming
Still think major snows are in New England. The question right now for the NYC metro is whether its a 2-4 or 3-6 event. Just don't see how this gets its act together in time. Could be wrong...Lets see what the EURO brings but if its what I think it will be....looks like a 2-4, 3-5 event at most. One thing is looking more likely...New England is going to get hammered...and Boston looks like it might get clobbered.
