Know you are on Jersey coast GD...I wouldn't lay the guard down yet....wouldn't surprise me if you guys get a shocker down there. Mixing? Probably....rain at times? Probably...still...once this gets really wound up, believe you will switch to heavy snow.
Pretty gutsy. Could look really good or really foolish. My guess is early dismissal then. That's gutsy.
A few schools here trying to get the credit for the day, bringing kids in and sending them home early, tough call, buses could be traveling in the middle of it.
Yeah...that's crazy...all models showing or most..showing mid morning things turn really bad but...hey...if this was a 3 to 6" storm, I could see it being a tough call. If you are 3 to 6 because of mixing and the potential is at least double that? Close the schools.
Just looked at the latest HRRR model...a short term model. WOW for NNJ. WOW. West of I95 gets over a foot and closer to 18"...if you translate it out. I don't know...just have a real strong vibe about this over-performing. Now, on the wrong side (for snow lovers) of the rain snow line and there will be busts. As every hour passes, the short term models are screaming 14-20" and locally higher amounts where the deformation zone sets up...and I believe it sets up in NNJ and South NY STATE.
Another interesting item. Just read the NWS discussion and with such instability between warm and cold, they are pretty sure some will experience thunder snow. For those that have not experienced that...its insane. Lightning and thunder in the pouring rain is one thing, lightning and thunder in a silent heavy snowfall is incredible.
Snow being reported in VA/MD and PA. Sorry you are not feeling good CBG! Take the day off....its going to snow.
Ok...NORTHEAST RADAR. Important as you look at the nowcasting radars...this IS NOT THE MAIN EVENT. Snow that will fall tonight is not the main event. When you look at this radar, look west young man. That storm on the heels of whats coming in right now will ignite the coastal...the race is on as you can see by this radar...closing in. radar: https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast-region/weather-radar?play=1
And for some reason beyond my intelligence, the local NWS for NNJ just reduced numbers by a few inches. I'm not sure where that's coming from considering the new short term models are screaming more. Anyway...they are the pros...but not buying it: FROM THE NWS: Tonight Snow likely, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Wednesday Snow. High near 35. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. East wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow, mainly before 11pm. Low around 30. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Northwest wind 11 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday A slight chance of rain showers before 7am, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers between 7am and 3pm, then a slight chance of rain showers after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. EDIT: Actually IM wrong...again. They knocked down tomorrows numbers by 2 inches but increased tomorrows nights numbers by a few. Still...not buying that either. Tomorrow from 10am or around until late evening is when it will produce..cats and dogs(that saying is for rain...but I'm going with it anyway.)
just like old times here,,,great stuff Jay,,,,,,keep em coming,,,,,,unless I pass out I will be watching this stuff all night
Looks like a miss west of Lancaster, PA. We're looking at 3-7" with the lower number west of the Susquehanna River. Oh well, the Ariens was ready! I'll keep the gas in it until April, then drain and back to the rear of the garage..
Woke up to a dusting and some flakes falling. Roads are wet but not covering yet. Let the games begin
Lift has begun in Central Jersey heading into NNJ. Games begin. Looks like its within 2 hours of the heavy stuff and then its lights out for about 10 to 12 hours. Be careful guys...will keep updating during the day. RADAR: https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes That radar above will be your best friend today...hit refresh every so often.
the discussion from the NWS: have added a slight chance of thunder to this area as well. Note areas that do experience thunder, will likely see any precipitation change to either all snow or a snow/graupel mix if not already all snow. These areas could receive a rather significant accumulation of snow, very quickly. Outside of any convective enhancement and banding, expect maximum snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour, but could see 2-4"/hr rates with any convective enhancement and banding. Latest high-resolution models suggest that banding should set up from NE NJ/Orange County into interior SW CT. The most likely time for the banding to occur is this afternoon - could see 6-10" of snow fall from around noon-sunset across the NW 2/5th of the CWA. Bolded area is the area we talked about last night. I believe their 2/5th of the CWA (THE AREA THEY FORECAST)..will be greater..and many areas will receive 6-10...or even 8-12 in about a 6 hour period. Those that enter the 2 to 4" an hour will receive close to 2 feet of snow.
