I looked at the latest gfs and it keeps me liquid, the latest 12k nam has me +20 inches.lol . Nws not buying, keeping the flood warnings but so far steering away from the winter storm watches. I think either way, my direct tv is not getting installed Friday.
Hi res models,,,,Euro,,,,NAM,,,HRDPS all buying in,,,,,,all matters where that upper level low closes,,,,,ps Bernie Buying in also enough for me,,,,,cherry on the cake will be if the Jayster chimes in,,,,,,,u up late Fjay ? Im waiting up for the Euro
just watched Ch11 Mr G,,,,then Nick Gregory,,not buying in,,,,,if this happens people will really be shocked after 60 degrees today and these guys down playing it
those playing along at home,,GFS just jumped on board with NAM and Euro,,,,,,,,,local tv weather guys NOT buying in yet,,,,THIS WILL BE INTERESTING
Euro was not great,,took a step back,,moved more east,,,was warmer,,,,,,,morning tv weather geeks not buying into snow and saying NYC gets little if anything and they keep pointing to far north and west,,,,,,still some time and shifts today then now casting. To me it appears that the ULL is in a decent spot especially for North n West and its just a matter if the models are having a hard time with dynamics ?,,,,does ULL setup in good spot and create its own cold air , enough to snow hard and heavy ? Batman ? Robin ? Bueller ? thoughts ?
Not sure if its a too far east thing. I mean...you look at the track of this storm and its pretty nuts. Surface low pulls over Western PA and then begins a long turnover to coastal off N.J. and L.I. After that is the question marks. I believe it will go to snow and then back to rain and snow for many because the storm seems to slightly retrograde back to the coast. Now...are the dynamics of this storm so strong that the models are not picking that up for more snow? Dynamics in a storm like this can cause lower temps aloft...and then brought down by the system itself. That will be the ? for this storm...and why it becomes a huge nowcast once it begins. Now here is the real tricky part....the storm will then at some point on Friday night, retrograde....pull back to the coast so when you think the radar is drying up....it will fill in again from CT into NJ. Literally from CT...and then going SOUTHWEST into NJ AND PA. Snow amounts will be impossible to predict for those on the south end of the retrograde. I know that's the important feature always but the one that will knock out power is the winds...and that will end up being the real huge story with this storm...oh my....the winds...tropical force for many hours with hurricane force gusts.
Ok....here is a great read and it will be tough to fully understand...but just read through it a few times and will comment on what they are talking about in bold. This is the discussion from the NWS and its always a great read...will post the link to it so in the future, you can read it and fully understand the lingo. The mid 970s low over the benchmark, dropping into the 960s as the sys drifts sewd (Here is the key..the system drifts SOUTHEASTWARD...retrograde..come back to you) late Fri, will produce high winds across the area. The watch was upgraded to a wrng for ern CT and LI, with the watch expanded to most of the remaining area. The height of the storm for wind still looks to be aft 18Z (mid afternoon Friday through Friday night) thru the first half of Fri ngt. 2k ft agl winds in the GFS are over 74kt at Montauk, so gusts have been set at 70 mph in the wrng. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Orange and wrn Passaic counties. The dynamic cooling (there is that key word I discussed earlier..dynamic cooling) and advection of a colder airmass cannot be ignored. The NAM, although an outlier wrt track, is more aggressive with the magnitude of cooling with the sys. Collaboration with WPC suggests the NAM historically overdoes the amount of cooling, so this output is not favored. However, thermal profile margins of around a degree or two are the difference between hvy rain and hvy snow with this storm. With the track consensus consolidating, more snow was added to the fcst for nwrn zones, particularly the higher elevations. Although the probability is low based on the 00z model data being used, any downward trend in the thermal profile could lead to much more snowfall across the majority of the area. A strong cstl front should set up across sern CT and ern LI, so areas w of this boundary will be the ones to watch. Rain and snow winds down Fri ngt, then chcs for lgt rain and snow lingering for the first part of Sat. Winds will gradually diminish as the low continues to track sewd over the atlc And there you have it...wind huge...flood potential huge considering tonight alone will drop close to 2" of rain before the main event. Long lasting..check...snow? You see above how close this is to being a blizzard for many...and how close it is to being just a rainstorm for many. Here is the link and scroll down to bottom left and hit FORECAST DISCUSSION. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.95141760000007&lon=-74.2240769#.WpgF9ExFycx Also with the link above....top left you can enter your town/city or just zip code Once you do that..put it in your favorites and never check any local news or website for weather again....this is the best information for weather in the world. Excellent radar bottom right...hit loop once you get there on the left.
ha..lol...FJF...and CBG...that link above. Keep reading the forecast discussions. They are updated at AROUND 4am and 4pm UNLESS there is changes. Keep reading that to get much better knowledge of what models they are using for a current storm...where their thinking is...etc. NOW...because of this, updated current model runs will not be digested by them. So, major swings takes them hours to digest and update. But its what taught me decades ago and I still hinge on their thinking. Disagree with them? Plenty of times..but its great reading and will become easier and easier to read the more you go there. OK...Latest runs: Want to see how bad (or good?) the models are struggling with the cutoff rain snow line? Here is a doozy for you: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=350130 For those that know Northwest N.J. and the Poconos in PA..what does that chart scream to you? ELEVATION. So why is the elevation so exaggerated with this storm? Dynamics.....the models are conceding that the incredible dynamics of this storm will pull its own cold air mass to the ground...but only in high elevation places...not enough in lower elevations. That to me would raise a huge question mark how correct this rain snow line is being forecasted. Not saying it will not happen but right now not buying it. This needs to be watched for higher amounts than forecasted and turn this from a mostly rain even to a mostly snow event...or even a 50/50 event and it has huge implications. Not because it would give anyone 2 feet of snow..but throw more snow down from the skies with winds between 35-50 with gusts over 60? Big difference.
It really is. Huge. What's amazing to me and why I will be really watching it is the development...where it comes from. Not your huge superstorm that destroyed the east coast and well inland...or the blizzard of 96 that have major gulf of Mexico origins. This is a storm that crosses PA and then hands off to a little low off the N.J. coast that will explode...and not move much for 24 hours while dropping in pressure at crazy rates...throwing the wind and rain/snow or both back at that coast and well inland. Amazing storm that will grip The Weather Channel and local news for about 48 hours.
How is this for alarm bells...never seen so many different types of warnings. http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=350133
and if that were not enough...buckle your seatbelts for the March 7th and 8th period...hmmm..and wow potential.
