Wow ! Good one Bomber That phrase actually just came to my head while posting None of the kids here would know a Bob Dylan really existed (Sigh) ...this time is passing ..Thanks for the memory man!
Wow, did they really give up 5 picks for Wentz, I bet their forum was nearly exploding right after that, of course they won't be now. What were the picks btw ?
The Eagles get: The No. 2 pick in 2016 and a 2017 fourth-round pick. The Browns get: The No. 8 pick in 2016, the No. 77 pick (third round) in 2016, the No. 100 pick (fourth round) in 2016, a 2017 first-rounder and a 2018 second-rounder.
If Macc is sure that his FQB is there, it's hard to put a cap on how much is "too much". Of course being sure, doesn't guarantee that he's right, but if he is right, then getting a QB that leads your team for 10 years minimum is worth a lot of "future". For all those who say, "Yeah, but look at all the other positions you could fill with the picks you traded", I would point out that - just like with the QB as most of you say - there is no guarantee that the players taken with those picks will work out. In fact, I would say that if you gave up 5 players only 2-3 of them stick around for more than a year or two, so in reality you're really not giving up much "future". The Jets have sure had their share of first round busts, regardless of position, so in that light, I'd say they're not risking all that much. Still, as I've said before, it will be extremely hard for them to trade up no matter how much they offer.This is a QB-driven league, more so than at any time in its history, so that's where the highest investment has to be, and they have to keep investing until they hit.
Jets got ammo, but the question is do you give up both of those 2nd rounders? 2 2nd rounders have to have pretty high value here. I think the Seahawks have a strong shot of missing the playoffs, that pick is getting stronger. That 2019 first rounder will probably be included in the deal. 49ers are the target team.
It's got to come down to how convinced you are about a player. The more you give up, the more pressure there is on both you as the GM and the player himself.
i wouldn't give up the second 2nd rounder unless it let me keep next years first. if a team would swap firsts take both 2nds this year and a 2 and a 3 next year. its a lot but your giving up more to keep that first next year.
Here are a couple of articles that shed some light on how successful players are based on where they're taken, as well as evidence that most draft picks don't make it. From this article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe...w-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/2/# Of the 595 players designated as "starters" in the 2014 season, almost a third were drafted in the 1st round. Another third were taken in rounds 2 &3. So those who say "You can find great talent in the later rounds" are not supported by this statistic = 60% of starters are taken in rounds 1-3, with HALF of those coming in round 1. Also, 1st rounders played a higher percentage (67%) of games than any other round, while those drafted in rounds 4-7+ only played 7% of the possible games. And finally, the average length of career for all players in 3.3 years From this article: https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015...e-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round It studied drafts from 2005-14, and out of 2465 players drafted, only 629 became starters for at least half their career. With regards to QBs specifically: Of the 122 QBs drafted in the last 10 years only 25 have been starters for at least half of their career. The first round gives you a 63% chance of finding a starter. The second round gives you a 27% chance, the third a 17% chance, then it really plummets from there with 8% in the fourth and 6% in the 7th. In the last 10 years, 38 QBs have been drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds and not one has become a starter. From this article: https://www.dailynorseman.com/2017/4/12/15274148/most-nfl-draft-picks-are-busts here is how all draft picks over the past 20 years (not including last year) have fared overall: 16.7% Didn’t Play for the Team that Drafted Them. 37% Were Considered “Useless” 15.3% Were Considered “Poor” 10.5% Were Considered “Average” 12.3% - Were Considered “Good” 6.9% Were Considered “Great” From the above, only 20% of all draft picks really make an impact. So if you have 5 picks, only one is likely to make an impact, and that pick is likely to be a first rounder. Even then, his career may not last more than 3-4 years. After digesting all of this, what I conclude is that most draft picks fail, and so aren't really all that valuable, with the exception of the first round. And even when a player succeeds, his impact is usually only felt for 3 years or so, thus the "future" isn't really a long period of time. WHile "building through the draft" is considered "smart", if you only average getting one or even two players per year, it would take 10-12 years to build completely from the draft, so what this really means is that you have to use FAs and trades to build the majority of your roster. This again lessens the values of draft picks, particularly past the first round. So on the basis of all this, I would say trading away almost all your picks is worth it for the right QB.
I remember reading an article just after Mac got hired saying his QB preference is a tall/big guy, big hands, strong arm, pocket passer type...in the years following it seems like that bears some fruit based on his QB flyers in the draft (Hack / Petty)...if that holds true, i'm guessing Jets will be all over Allen and that Wentz success will probably just instill that a bit more...That said, and although i'm more of a team builder through the draft guy, there's no doubt that if you land your QB whatever it costs pales in comparison...Now that Mac will be going into year 4 next year, I'm guessing a big trade up is in the offing if they've identified their target and realize they can't get him...and that would make sense. The Jets won't win anything significant without a good QB, there won't be a year 6/7 for Mac w/out some progression, it will take a year or two to get the young QB ready to win significantly, therefore now's the time to go all in...if it fizzles out he gets fired for choosing poorly, if he doesn't choose in the first place he probably gets fired anyway...
I was thinking that same line of thinking as well. That's a tough pill to swallow, but I like that scenario over giving up another first rounder the next year. Anyway to avoid doing so would be in the Jets best interest.
Jets and Josh Allen, there are connections per the rumor mill. Rosen as well. The Wentz success could get to Mac's head, but I hope Mac realizes, Allen is not Carson Wentz. I think the Jets will try and trade up for Rosen and should they fail, Allen could be a back-up. Hue Jackson might get fired for passing over Wentz and Watson, even if he doesn't have full control of the 53.
And here's an article that puts forth the idea that the reason that picking a QB (or other offensive skill position - RB, WR) SEEMS more risky than picking a defensive player or non-skill position player is because we have far more statistics on the offensive skill positions than the other positions, so we can more easily see when a player falls short against those statistics. https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/ This has been an argument I've made before: that the Jets tend to draft "D" because it SEEMS less risky, but in reality, it isn't, it's just harder to quantify with numbers. Whatever the perceived or actual risks are however, Macc needs to man up and go all in for a QB this time.
This is the only part I disagree with. Draft picks provide an easy low cost contract allowing a team to allocate resources to big money positions or to fill other voids on the team.
It's a balancing act for sure, but my point was that in a given year - like this year - where you might be able to use draft picks to trade up for a critical player like a FQB prospect, then the "math" indicates that it's a good gamble.
I really used to like Mo but he just has not been the player we saw making the topo 100 a couple of years ago. Id hate to see him go but his production does not equate his pay. Yes he earned a raise but now he must prove that he is worth it. I gave him the benefit of the doubt in terms of recovery time...but he has had long enough to play like we expect him to.
So are we a qb away from being a consistent AFC champion/Superbowl contender? Drew Brees is still as good as he was when the Saints won it. I just dont think 1 player at any position is the key. Look at the Giants this year. On paper people were saying super bowl but...
